ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動と世界の自動車産業への影響

原材料、半導体チップ、EV用バッテリー、触媒コンバーターの供給悪化と工場閉鎖により、全世界での自動車生産台数が100万台減少となっています。欧州と東欧のいくつかのOEMは、ウクライナのサプライヤーからの部品不足のため、生産を一時停止または減速しています。生産停止と自動車部品供給不足はこの危機の直接的な影響であり、今後数週間はサプライチェーンの問題や原材料不足が予想されます。

当レポートでは、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動と世界の自動車産業への影響について調査分析し、戦略的必須要件、成長環境、ロシア・ウクライナの乗用車産業の概要、自動車部品・原材料の概要とサプライチェーンへの影響、OEMの視点に関する情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか？
• 戦略的必須要件 8（TM）
• 自動車産業に対する上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine (TM)を促進

成長環境

• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動：主要なハイライトと自動車への影響
• 自動車産業における混乱の主要分野
• 世界の乗用車生産の概要：2020年
• ロシア・ウクライナの乗用車製造のハイライト
• ロシア・ウクライナの乗用車生産工場
• ロシア・ウクライナとの貿易を一時停止している世界の自動車OEM
• ロシアの自動車部品産業のスナップショット
• ウクライナの自動車部品産業のスナップショット
• 影響分析-自動車部品と原材料
• OEM特有の影響の概要

ロシア・ウクライナの乗用車産業の概要

• 乗用車産業のスナップショット：ロシア
• 乗用車産業のスナップショット：ウクライナ
• 危機の地域展望
• OEMのロシア・ウクライナでのビジネスチャンスの損失
• ロシア・ウクライナのOEMへの影響分析
• 考えられるOEM/サプライヤー戦略

自動車部品の概要とサプライチェーンへの影響

• 紛争により影響を受ける自動車部品
• ロシアの主要な自動車部品サプライヤーと運用状況
• ウクライナの主要な自動車部品サプライヤーと運用状況
• ウクライナの自動車部品産業：サプライヤーの行動
• 影響分析：自動車部品

原材料の概要とサプライチェーンへの影響

• ロシアの原材料供給のスナップショット
• パラジウム：市場概要
• パラジウム：自動車の触媒材料
• パラジウム：価格の指数関数的上昇
• ニッケル：市場概要
• ニッケル価格は11年ぶりの高値
• ニッケル、EVバッテリー：主要な自動車用途
• ニッケル価格の急騰はEVのコストを1,000米ドル引き上げる
• ネオンガス供給問題：2014年のロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動からの教訓
• ネオンガス不足により悪化するチップ不足危機
• 影響分析：原材料

OEMの視点

• Renault：概要
• Renault：影響分析
• Hyundai and Kia：概要
• Hyundai and Kia：影響分析
• Stellantis：概要
• Stellantis：影響分析
• Volkswagen：概要
• Volkswagen：影響分析
• Toyota：概要
• Toyota：影響分析
• 中国ブランド

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会1：産業界の連携を深め、調達の問題を回避
• 成長機会2：部品不足を回避するための代替品の調達戦略
• 成長機会3：紛争によるビジネス機会の損失を軽減するOEM

回答者からの調査結果

Worsening Supply of Raw Materials, Semiconductor Chips, EV Batteries, and Catalytic Converters Coupled with Plant Shutdowns would Lead to 1 Million Fewer Vehicles Being Produced Worldwide

The Russo-Ukrainian war severely disrupted the automotive value chain and prompted OEMs and suppliers to defer or discontinue trade with Russia. Several OEMs in Europe and Eastern Europe have paused or slowed their production due to a lack of parts from Ukraine-based suppliers. Production halt and auto parts supply shortage are the immediate effect of this crisis, and supply chain issues and raw material shortages are expected in the coming weeks. OEMs, including Toyota, Ford, Volvo, Jaguar-Land Rover, General Motors, and BMW, have ceased export operations to Russia, with many of them suspending Russian joint ventures in response to the invasion. Russia is a major supplier of key metals & minerals, and export sanctions have severely impacted commodity demand and prices.

The study aims to provide an overview of the automotive industry in Russia and Ukraine, key manufacturers, the share of these countries in the global automotive industry, and analyze the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the global automotive industry. The research service will elucidate the key issues auto OEMs face for raw material & auto parts demand and supply. It will help understand the current market position and how the industry responds, particularly in vehicle production, business opportunity, and supply chains. It provides an overview of the key OEMs/suppliers, services & products and analyzes the strategies adopted by them for mitigating the crisis. In addition to the effect of the crisis on the automotive industry and key areas of impact, the report analyzes future areas of disruption, impact on the supply chain due to raw material shortage, and manufacturing strategies. Frost & Sullivan has examined the auto components industry and analyzed which automotive segments will be severely impacted by the conflict.

By providing a comprehensive overview of the industry from multiple angles, this research service seeks to:

• Capture the current scenario of the global automotive market and the Russo-Ukrainian automotive industry.

• Understand the role of Russia as a major metal supplier.

• Identify the role of Ukraine in the global automotive industry.

• Understand the landscape of the supply chain crisis and how it can be solved.

• Understand and analyze the current scale and effects of the crisis on the global automotive industry.

• Identify OEM risk mitigation strategies and best practices followed.

From an automotive and transportation standpoint, this study provides a global outlook of the ongoing crisis and analyzes its impact on the OEMs and auto-component manufacturers.

This study takes a deep dive into Russia's and Ukraine's contribution to the global automotive industry, the best practices adopted by some OEMs to deal with the crisis, and what can be done to mitigate future crises in this domain.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What is the current state of the automotive industry?

• What are the major areas of disruption and effects of the crisis on the automotive industry?

• What are the key factors and trends that could fuel the auto chip shortage?

• What strategies are followed by leading OEMs who conduct business with Russia and Ukraine?

• What is the effect of this crisis on European or global auto production?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on Automotive Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Russo-Ukrainian War, Key Highlights & Impact on Automotive
• Key Areas of Disruption in Automotive
• Global Passenger Vehicle Production Overview, 2020
• Highlights of Passenger Vehicle Manufacturing in Russia & Ukraine
• Passenger Vehicle Production Plants in Russia & Ukraine
• Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade With Russia & Ukraine
• Snapshot of the Russian Auto Parts Industry
• Snapshot of the Ukrainian Auto Parts Industry
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts and Raw Materials
• Overview of OEM Specific Impact

Russia & Ukraine Passenger Car Industry Overview

• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Russia
• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Ukraine
• Regional Outlook of the Crisis
• Business Opportunity Loss in Russia & Ukraine for OEMs
• Impact Analysis on the OEMs in Russia & Ukraine
• Possible OEM/Supplier Strategies

Auto Parts Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict
• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict (continued)
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Russia & Operational Status
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Ukraine & Operational Status
• Ukraine Auto Parts Industry, Supplier Actions
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts

Raw Materials Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Snapshot of the Russian Supply of Raw Materials
• Palladium, Market Overview
• Palladium, Catalytic Material in Automotive
• Palladium, Exponential Increase in Price
• Nickel, Market Overview
• Nickel Prices Touching a 11-Year High
• Nickel, EV Battery-The Key Automotive Application
• Nickel Price Surge to Increase the Cost of EVs by $1,000
• Neon Gas Supply Issues-Lessons from 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War
• The Chip Shortage Crisis to be Aggravated by Shortage of Neon Gas
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material (continued)

OEM Perspective

• Renault, Overview
• Renault, Impact Analysis
• Hyundai and Kia, Overview
• Hyundai and Kia, Impact Analysis
• Stellantis, Overview
• Stellantis, Impact Analysis
• Volkswagen, Overview
• Volkswagen, Impact Analysis
• Toyota, Overview
• Toyota, Impact Analysis
• Chinese Brands

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues
• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict (continued)

Survey Results from Respondents

• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 1
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 2
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 3
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer