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市場調査レポート

ハイスループット衛星(HTS):新たな展望への歩み

High Throughput Satellites: Vertical Market Analysis & Forecasts

発行 Euroconsult 商品コード 318492
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ハイスループット衛星(HTS):新たな展望への歩み High Throughput Satellites: Vertical Market Analysis & Forecasts
出版日: 2016年03月01日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

ハイスループット衛星(HTS)によるキャパシティの流入と電波到達範囲の世界的拡大は、すべての主要な地域およびエンドユーズ産業に市場成長の機会をもたらすでしょう。世界のHTSシステムにおけるキャパシティ利用量は2014年から2023年にかけて30%以上のCAGRで成長し、2014年の107Gbpsから2023年には1,300Gbpsを超える規模に到達すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、ハイスループット衛星(HTS)市場の動向について調査し、HTSの概要と発展の経緯、HTSシステムの投入・受注予測、衛星製造業者の市場シェア、衛星事業者の投資戦略、キャパシティの需要量・供給量・価格・収益の推移(地域・エンドユーズ産業別)などをまとめています。

HTSシステム&アーキテクチャの進化

  • HTS vs 通常の衛星
  • HTSの発展の経緯
  • HTSシステムのラウンチと受注予測
  • HTSアーキテクチャの概要
  • アーキテクチャのトレードオフ:スループット vs カバレージ
  • アーキテクチャのトレードオフ:オープンシステム vs クローズドシステム
  • アーキテクチャのトレードオフ:Ku vs Ka
  • アーキテクチャのトレードオフ:固定ビーム vs ペイロードの柔軟性
  • 地上部門:全体のTCOの減少

事業者戦略の比較

  • 事業者の投資戦略
  • 事業者の投資戦略:HTSアーキテクチャ
  • 事業者の投資戦略:キャパシティの供給と地域別内訳
  • 事業者の投資戦略:産業別市場の焦点
  • ビジネスモデル:概要
  • 事業者の経済モデル

統合市場の予測・市場動向

  • 主な市場成長推進因子
  • 主な市場成長阻害要因
  • キャパシティプライシング
  • 統合市場の予測:需要・供給
  • 統合市場の予測:キャパシティ収益
  • 統合市場の予測:供給・周波数帯の分析
  • 地域市場の予測
    • 北米
    • ラテンアメリカ
    • 欧州
    • ロシア・中央アジア
    • 中東・アフリカ
    • アジア太平洋
    • オセアニア

産業別市場V

  • 消費者向けブロードバンド
  • 政府・企業ネットワーク
  • セルラーバックホール&トランキング
  • 商用航空
  • 商用航海
  • 軍事衛星通信
  • ビデオ監視

図表

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目次
Product Code: HTS14

High Throughput Satellites: Vertical Market Analysis & Forecasts highlights the evolution of HTS systems and architectures over the last decade. It identifies and assesses the HTS investment plans of all satellite operators and provides an impact assessment of LEO constellations. HTS system launches and order forecasts are covered, along with the projected take-up profile by frequency band of seven vertical markets. The report also includes bottom-up vertical market forecasts/projected market take-up by region until 2024.

Highlights from the report:

High Throughput Satellites (HTS) have continued their proliferation since late 2014 as over 20 new systems were ordered, including an eight satellite expansion order by O3b. In terms of HTS supply, net capacity additions in 2015 and 2016 remain relatively comparable to 2014, largely due to widespread slippage of launch schedules. Despite the lag in anticipated supply growth, demand for HTS capacity has accelerated more sharply than anticipated, leading to a significant upwards revision to leased HTS capacity estimates in 2015, largely fuelled by a deepening market shift towards bulk capacity leasing and rapidly increasing data usage per end-user.

Total investments from the 25 operators who have combined to order nearly 100 HTS systems to date are estimated to be over $17 billion. Another 123 HTS systems are expected to be launched over the next decade; of these new systems, about 78 have yet to be officially contracted and are still open to the market. Given this level of investment activity, global HTS capacity supply is set to more than quadruple from 680 Gpbs in 2015 to nearly 3 Tbps by 2020.

In terms of market value, HTS capacity lease revenues are forecasted to jump from $1.1 billion in 2015 to ~$4.9 billion by 2024, generating over $26 billion in aggregate revenues over the period.

Report Elements:

  • 60 pages
  • Over 100 graphs & tables
  • Comprehensive digital files - Including all forecasts in Excel files
  • Over 1,500 data points

Highlights of the executive report:

  • Highlights the evolution of HTS systems & architectures over the last decade
  • HTS system launches & order forecasts
  • Impact assessment of LEO constellations
  • Identifies & assesses the HTS investment plans of all satellite operators
  • Projected take-up profile by frequency band of each vertical market
  • Bottom-up vertical market forecasts/projected market take-up by region until 2024, vertical markets include:
    • Consumer Broadband
    • Civil Government & Enterprise Networks
    • Military Satellite Communications
    • Cellular Backhaul & Trunking
    • Aero In-Flight Communications
    • Maritime Communications
    • Video Services

Methodology

Analysis, data and estimates found in the report rely on two complementary approaches:

  • In-depth analysis containing interviews with over 20 primary stakeholders from around the globe.
  • Secondary research includes a review of hard-to-obtain public information, including financial reports, press releases, new articles and industry white papers. Further, we relied heavily on our continuous research on the satellite sector with our recurring research publications including Satellites to be Built & Launched, Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey, and Aero IFEC.

Who will benefit from this report:

  • Satellite Operators
  • Banks & Investors
  • Service Providers
  • Equipment Manufacturers
  • Satellite Manufacturers
  • Government Agencies

Table of Contents

EVOLUTION OF HTS SYSTEMS & ARCHITECTURES

  • HTS versus regular satellites
  • World map of HTS supply for 2015 and 2018
  • Historic evolution of HTS
  • HTS architectures overview
  • HTS system launches and order forecasts
  • HTS architecture trade-offs
  • HTS architectures flexible payloads

BENCHMARK OF OPERATORS' STRATEGIES

  • Operator investment strategies : HTS architecture
  • Operator investment strategies: Supply and geographic breakdown
  • Operator investment strategies: Number of beams
  • Operator investment strategies: Partnerships
  • Operator investment strategies: Vertical market focus
  • Business model overview
  • HTS business case assessment
  • Economic model for the operator
  • Ramp-up profiles for GEO-HTS systems
  • LEO constellations - OneWeb overview
  • LEO constellations - OneWeb business case

CONSOLIDATED & REGIONAL MARKET FORECASTS

  • Key market growth drivers
  • Key market growth inhibitors
  • HTS capacity pricing
  • Consolidated market forecasts - demand and supply
  • Consolidated market forecasts - capacity revenues
  • Consolidated market forecasts - supply and frequency band analysis
  • Regional market forecasts :

North America, Latin America, Europe, Russia & Central Asia, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific and Oceans

VERTICAL MARKET FOCUS

  • Consumer Broadband
  • Civil Government & Enterprise Networks
  • Military Satellite Communications
  • Cellular Backhaul & Trunking
  • Aero In-Flight Connectivity
  • Maritime Communications
  • Video Services

Each vertical market focus contains

  • 1. Market overview
  • 2. Actual usage versus growth potential
  • 3. Forecasts to 2024

Listing of graphs and tables

01- Evolution of HTS systems and architectures

HTS VERSUS REGULAR SATELLITES

WORLD MAP OF HTS SUPPLY (IN GBPS) FOR 2015 AND 2018

HISTORIC EVOLUTION OF HTS

  • TIMELINE OF HTS EVOLUTION
  • NUMBER OF HTS SYSTEM LAUNCHES

HTS ARCHITECTURES OVERVIEW

  • NUMBER OF HTS SYSTEM LAUNCHES
  • BREAKDOWN OF HTS LAUNCHES BY SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE UNTIL 2015
  • BREAKDOWN OF AVAILABLE HTS CAPACITY BY SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE UNTIL 2015

HTS SYSTEM LAUNCHES AND ORDER FORECAST

  • HTS SYSTEM (GEO/MEO) LAUNCH FORECAST
  • TOTAL HTS SYSTEM LAUNCHES: OPEN VS. CONTRACTED
  • MARKET SHARE OF HTS SYSTEMS ORDERS BY SATELLITE MANUFACTURER

HTS ARCHITECTURES FLEXIBLE PAYLOADS

  • SHARE OF FLEXIBLE PAYLOADS IN HTS SYSTEM ORDERS
  • SHARE BY FLEXIBILITY TYPE
  • MARKET SHARE BY MANUFACTURER

02- Benchmark of Operators' Strategies

OPERATOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: HTS ARCHITECTURES

OPERATOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: CAPACITY SUPPLY & GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN

OPERATOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: NUMBER OF BEAMS

  • # BEAMS BY PAYLOAD TYPE (2004-15)
  • AVERAGE GBPS/BEAM BY PAYLOAD TYPE (2004-15)
  • CAPACITY VS. BEAMS BY PAYLOAD TYPE (2004-15)
  • BEAMS PER REGION (2004-15)

    OPERATOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: PARTNERSHIPS

    OPERATOR INVBESTMENT STRATEGIES: VERTICAL MARKET FOCUS

    BUSINESS MODEL OVERVIEW

HTS BUSINESS CASE ASSESSMENT

  • ASSESSMENT OF SIX SATELLITES: KEY CHARACTERISTICS
  • RAMP-UP PROFILES: ESTIMATED TIME TO REACH PLATEAU
  • AVERAGE PRICING REQUIRED TO GENERATE A 10% IRR
  • IRR SENSITIVITY TO CAPACITY PRICING

ECONOMIC MODEL FOR THE OPERATOR

  • CAPEX VS. OPEX
  • OPERATORS SELLING OPTIONS
  • RECENT SAMPLE OF LARGE VOLUME PRE-LAUNCH HTS CAPACITY LEASES

RAMP-UP PROFILES FOR GEO-HTS SYSTEMS

  • HTS SYSTEMS HISTORICAL FILL RATES
  • SELECTED HTS SYSTEMS FOR BENCHMARK

LEO CONSTELLATIONS - BENCHMARK

  • VERTICAL MARKETS - BENCHMARK BY ORBIT
  • SPACE SEGMENT CAPEX PER GBPS
  • GROUND TERMINAL COST

LEO CONSTELLATIONS - ONEWEB OVERVIEW

  • ONEWEB AT A GLANCE
  • TIMELINE
  • KEY PARTNERSHIPS

NON-GEO CONSTELLATIONS - ONEWEB BUSINESS CASE

  • HTS SUPPLY VS. ONEWEB SUPPLY
  • TOTAL NON-VIDEO SATELLITE DEMAND VS. ONEWEB SUPPLY
  • GLOBAL POPULATION DENSITY

CONSOLIDATED MARKET FORECASTS - SUPPLY AND FREQUENCY BAND ANALYSIS

  • HTS SUPPLY FORECAST - EXCLUDING SUPPLY TARGETED FOR CONSUMER BROADBAND
  • REGIONAL FILL RATES EXCLUDING SUPPLY TARGETED FOR CONSUMER BROADBAND
  • TOTAL KU-BAND HTS VS. KA-BAND HTS SUPPLY
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY USAGE BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • REGIONALMARKET FORECASTS - NORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE, RUSSIA & CIS, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ASIA PACIFIC, OCEANS:
  • -KA-BAND HTS SUPPLY FORECAST BY OPERATOR
  • KA-BAND HTS CAPACITY USAGE BY APPLICATION
  • KU-BAND HTS SUPPLY FORECAST BY OPERATOR
  • KU-BAND HTS CAPACITY USAGE BY APPLICATION

3- Consolidated and Regional Market Forecasts

KEY MARKET GROWTH DRIVERS

KEY MARKET GROWTH INHIBITORS

HTS CAPACITY PRICING

  • PRICE RANGES FOR SELLING OPTIONS
  • HTS CAPACITY PRICE TRENDS BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY PRICE TRENDS BY REGION
  • HTS CAPACITY PRICE TRENDS BY APPLICATION

CONSOLIDATED MARKET FORECASTS - DEMAND AND SUPPLY

  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY REGION
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY VERTICAL MARKET
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY SUPPLY BY REGION
  • HTS CAPACITY FILL RATES BY REGION

CONSOLIDATED MARKET FORECASTS - CAPACITY REVENUES

  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES BY VERTICAL MARKET
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES BY REGION
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY VERTICAL MARKET (2015 AND 2024)

CONSOLIDATED MARKET FORECASTS - SUPPLY AND FREQUENCY BAND ANALYSIS

  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY SUPPLY BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • TOTAL KA-BAND HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY REGION
  • TOTAL KU-BAND HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY REGION

REGIONAL MARKET FORECASTS - NORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE, RUSSIA & CIS, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ASIA PACIFIC, OCEANS:

  • KA-BAND HTS SUPPLY FORECAST BY OPERATOR
  • KA-BAND HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY APPLICATION
  • KU-BAND HTS SUPPLY FORECAST BY OPERATOR
  • KU-BAND HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY APPLICATION

    4- Vertical Market Focus

CONSUMER BROADBAND - OVERVIEW

  • NUMBER OF INTERNET USERS AROUND THE WORLD
  • MAXIMUM HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON BROADBAND FOR AVERAGE AND MINIMUM WAGE WORKERS CLASSES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

CONSUMER BROADBAND - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • SUBSCRIBERS EVOLUTION BY OPERATOR

CONSUMER BROADBAND - FORECASTS

  • SUBSCRIBERS BY REGION AND TOTAL SERVICE REVENUES
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR CONSUMER BROADBAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SPLIT BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES FOR CONSUMER BROADBAND

CIVIL GOVERNMENT & ENTERPRISE NETWORKS - OVERVIEW

  • OVERVIEW OF ENTERPRISE & GOVERNMENT SUB-SEGMENTS
  • SAMPLE OF CONTRACTS SIGNED WITH HTS SYSTEMS

CIVIL GOVERNMENT & ENTERPRISE NETWORKS - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • USO PROJECTS POISED TO DRIVE GROWTH

CIVIL GOVERNMENT & ENTERPRISE NETWORKS - FORECASTS

  • HTS TERMINALS IN SERVICE BY REGION
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SPLIT BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES

MILITARY SATELLITE COMMUNICATION - OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS

  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR MILSATCOM
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SCENARIO ANALYSIS
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED - KA-BAND VS. KU-BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES FOR MILSATCOM

CELLULAR BACKHAUL & TRUNKING - OVERVIEW

  • TRANSMISSION COST AND LATENCY COMPARISON OF CELLULAR BACKHAUL ALTERNATIVES
  • O3B TERMINAL PRICE RANGE DEPENDING ON ANTENNA SIZE/CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS
  • SAMPLE OF CAPACITY CONTRACTS SIGNED WITH HTS SYSTEMS

CELLULAR BACKHAUL & TRUNKING - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • UPSIDE MARKET POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL SATELLITE CONNECTED BTS - 2015 VS. 2024

CELLULAR BACKHAUL & TRUNKING - FORECASTS

  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR TRUNKING & BACKHAUL
  • TOTAL HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR TRUNKING VS. CELLULAR BACKHAUL
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SPLIT BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES FOR TRUNKING & BACKHAUL

AERO IN-FLIGHT CONNECTIVITY - OVERVIEW

  • GLOBAL FLIGHT TRAFFIC ROADMAP WITH HTS SYSTEM COVERAGE
  • OVERVIEW OF PRIMARY SERVICE PROVIDER VSAT CONTRACTS

AERO IN-FLIGHT CONNECTIVITY - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • VSAT MARKET SHARE 2015 - COMMERCIAL AVIATION
  • HTS TERMINALS MARKET SHARE 2015 - COMMERCIAL AVIATION

AERO IN-FLIGHT CONNECTIVITY - FORECASTS

  • HTS TERMINALS IN SERVICE
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY REGION
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SPLIT BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES

MARITIME COMMUNICATIONS - OVERVIEW

  • WORLD MAP OF SHIPPING ROUTES DENSITY
  • EVOLUTION OF HTS MARITIME CAPACITY SUPPLY

MARITIME COMMUNICATIONS - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • MARITIME ADDRESSABLE MARKET SIZE IN 2015 AND TRENDS
  • NEW APPLICATIONS ENABLED BY HTS

MARITIME COMMUNICATIONS - FORECASTS

  • HTS TERMINALS AND TOTAL SERVICE REVENUE
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR MARITIME COMMUNICATIONS
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED SPLIT BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES FOR MARITIME COMMUNICATIONS

VIDEO SERVICES - OVERVIEW

  • BREAKDOWN OF U.S. CHANNELS OVER HTS SYSTEMS BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • BREAKDOWN OF CHANNELS OVER HTS SYSTEMS OUTSIDE OF THE U.S.
  • BENCHMARK OF TV PLATFORMS USING HTS CAPACITY (1Q2016)

VIDEO SERVICES - ACTUAL USAGE VS. GROWTH POTENTIAL

  • OTT: BANDWIDTH USAGE PER HOUR (1Q2016)

VIDEO SERVICES - FORECASTS

  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR VIDEO SERVICES
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED BY SUB-SEGMENT
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASED FOR VIDEO SERVICES BY FREQUENCY BAND
  • HTS CAPACITY LEASE REVENUES FOR VIDEO SERVICES
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