10-Year Market Forecast
This report provides estimates and forecasts, based on market research study work performed by ElectroniCast Consultants. The LED-based lighting covered in this study include track lighting heads (fixtures), including the initial lamp, which are used inside of retail stores.
Track lighting is a method of lighting where light fixtures are attached anywhere on a continuous track device, which is a surface mounted channel that holds the lighting units (or 'heads') in place and brings power to them. The track is usually mounted to the ceiling but it can be mounted to a wall, a beam or dropped from the ceiling on stems or cables. This market study covers only the movable lighting unit for track lighting and not the track.
LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based solid-state lighting (SSL) delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.
Some of the Advantages of LED Lighting in Retail Stores
- Extend the shelf life of food products
- LED lighting enables colors to appear truer and more vibrant
- LED lights provide a positive well-lit and safe environment
- LEDs work well and are low maintenance in cold environments
- LED light reduces the heat in display cases
- Lower maintenance costs and provides for energy savings
- LED lights last longer versus fluorescent or incandescent lights
- Smart Lighting helps customers find products
Market Forecast, by Region
The market data are segmented into the following regions; separate data-sections are provided for the following regions:
- America (Central, South and North America)
- Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA)
- Asia Pacific (APAC)
LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study
Below, are four levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 4”
- Level 1 - The chip or die
- Level 2 - The LED component (packaged LED) or other components
- Level 3 - Lamps, complete LED-equipped PCB, or Module
- Level 4 - Luminaire (light head with initial lamp/s)
Market Forecast, By Function
This report provides the 2017-2027 market data review and forecast by the following functions:
- Consumption Value
- Quantity (number/units)
- Average Selling Prices
The average selling prices are not retail prices; the prices are based on the price of the product at the initial factory level. These are the original manufacturer's (“factory”) prices invoiced to the first (original) customer, or transfer prices for internal (captive) production.
Market Forecast, by Product Size
For the purposes of this market study, we segment the product by the following sizes, which is measured at the area where the light is emitted, typically the width (shown in centimeters):
- Mini - 6cm or less (<= 6cm)
- Standard - more than 6cm to 30cm (>6cm to 30cm)
- Large - more than 30cm (>30cm)
In this market study we estimate and forecast the use of LED-based lighting heads for track lighting, which are used inside of retail stores. Of course, this industry sector may seem endless, which includes: very small neighborhood corner markets; convenience stores; grocery stores/supermarkets and hypermarkets; massive DIY (do-it-yourself) home improvement/lumber stores; contemporary art galleries, automobiles, bookstores, and furniture, appliances and electronics, sporting goods, handicrafts, musical instruments, gift shops, as wells as major department stores, and many others. However, shopping centers/malls, which are outside of the actual retail stores, are not included in the market data considerations. Also, we have not included food and drinking establishments, such as restaurants and bars in this market data.
ElectroniCast reviewed the product offering of over 60 vendors, regarding their participation in providing LED track lighting fixtures and/or related LED products or services.
An extensive overview of LED Lighting technology is presented.
Market Research Methodology
Market analysis and technology forecasting are complex tasks. Any predictions of the shape and trends of technology and economic movement start from the notion that the germ of what will be important tomorrow is present, although smaller or larger or in a different form, in our environment today. However, taking as a basis for a prediction the assumptions of current, conventional belief creates a set of preconceived notions that can lead to serious mistakes. ElectroniCast instead, looks to the basic driving forces.
The future market for the use of a particular type of LED track lighting fixture (head) depends on a number of factors, including: User equipment demand, for example - applications: interior retail store environment and market demand, and energy efficiency requirements and government regulations/laws/mandates/low carbon footprint, future-proofing (design and in technology), economy and investment community, product life cycles, competing technologies/solutions, cost/benefit ratios, requirements driven by Internet of Things (IoT), intelligent/digital building lighting controls, and others.
This study is based on analysis of LED lighting information obtained continually since 2002, but updated through the middle of September 2018. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, fittings/ fixtures) and building/facility management, local/state and federal government policy and management, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:
- Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LEDs (chips, packaged LEDs, lamps, fixtures, controls, systems) as well as other technologies.
- Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of LED track lighting in retail store applications.
- Other industry experts, including those focused with standards activities, trade associations, and investments.
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Selected customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near-term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
- Professional technical journals and papers; trade press articles
- Technical conference proceedings; product literature
- Company profile and financial information
- Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
- Personal knowledge of the research team.
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the regional markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy
The quantities of packaged LEDs, LED Driver ICs, LED materials/wafer/die/chips, LED Lamps and LED fixtures (luminaire) and other LED-based components, manufacturing processes/quality control/yields, and end-use products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each LED component field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check". ElectroniCast has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of several LED lighting categories. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.
The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid-1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
Nature of the Data
This report provides the consumption value, quantity and prices of LED-based track lighting fixtures (heads), which are used inside of retail stores - worldwide. The following details are important in interpreting the data presented in the study results/report:
- Significant figures - rounding: The data have been rounded to an appropriate number of decimal places. In some instances, this may result in minor apparent inconsistencies at summary levels.
- Current dollars: All values in the Market Analysis and Forecast are expressed in current US dollars. Therefore, growth rates and forecasted values include inflation, forecasted to average 5 percent per year.
The quantitative forecasts and value calculations for the LED track lighting fixture and the initial lamp (LED light source). Value-added motors, remote controls, and optional lenses/diffusers, optional hardware and tracks and track accessories/ components are not included in the average selling price market data.
Global Market Forecast proceeded as follows:
- 1) The values for each year were based on known raw data or calculated by formulae at the lowest data entry levels. The resulting values were summed by formulae to successively higher levels data.
- 2) With the value forecasted for each track Fixture/head type (by size category) used for inside retail stores, average annual growth rates for 2017-2022 and 2022-2027 were then calculated from the forecasted data.
- 3) For each LED fixture (head) size-type category, analysis was performed and breakdowns were forecasted for (geographical) regional consumption percentages for each year of the forecast.
Forecast Lighting Demand Growth
Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. It is also important to note that ElectroniCast, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LED-based fixtures; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for.
ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the estimated quantity of each track lighting fixture (track-head) size-category type of product used in the base year (2017), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer.
This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback. Figure 1 further illustrates the research methodology regarding this study.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
- 1.1. Overview
- 1.2. LED Track Lighting Heads - Product Examples
- 1.3. Largest Shopping Malls in the World
2. Market Forecast
- 2.1. Overview
- 2.2. America Market Forecast
- 2.3. EMEA Market Forecast
- 2.4. APAC. Market Forecast
3. LED Lighting: Competitive Analysis/Market Opportunity Analysis
- 3.1. Overview
- Market Opportunity Analysis - Market Dynamics
- Market Opportunity/Sales Channels
- 3.2. Company Profiles - LED Track Lighting and Other Related
- A-Bright Incorporated
- Acuity Brands Lighting, Inc. (ABL)
- AFX, Inc.
- American Bright Optoelectronics Corp.
- Amerlux, LLC.
- Asia Unique LED Lighting Co., Ltd.
- Bajaj Electricals Limited (BEL)
- Bridgelux, Inc.
- Citizen Electronics Company, Limited
- Cree, Inc. (Cree LED Lighting - Cree Bulb)
- Display Lighting Ltd.
- Dow Corning Electronics (Dow)
- Eaton Corporation plc (Cooper Lighting)
- EcoSense Lighting
- Epistar Corporation
- Everlight Electronics Company Limited
- Feit Electric
- Flex LTD.
- General Electric Company (GE) / Current
- GlacialLight Inc.
- Green Creative (Harbour Group)
- GuangZhou Lovely Lighting Co., Ltd
- Harvatek International
- High Power Lighting Corp. (HPLighting)
- Horner Lighting Group (Horner APG, LLC.)
- Hubbell Lighting Inc.
- Illumitex Incorporated
- Independence LED Lighting, LLC
- Intematix Corporation
- JESCO Lighting
- Kenall Manufacturing Company
- LED-LS (Latin America)
- LF Illumination, LLC
- LEISO Lighting (DongGuan) Tech., Ltd.
- Leviton Manufacturing Company / ConTech Lighting / Intense Lighting
- Lextar Electronics (AU Optronics)
- LG Innotek
- Liton Lighting
- LSI Industries Inc.
- Luming Technology Group Co., Ltd.
- Luminus Devices
- Nichia Corporation
- OPPLE - Latin America
- Panasonic Corporation
- Philips - Signify Holding
- Revolution Lighting Technologies, Inc. (TNT Energy)
- ROHM Company, Ltd.
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd
- SemiLEDs Corporation
- Senslite Corporation
- Seoul Semiconductor
- Sharp Microelectronics, Sharp Devices
- Sheenly Lighting Co. Ltd
- Targetti Sankey S.p.A.
- Tech Lighting (Generation Brands)
- Thorn Lighting (Zumtobel Group)
- WAC Lighting
4. LEDs - Technology Overview
5. ElectroniCast Market Research Methodology
List of Tables
- 1.1.1. Why LED Lighting in Retail Stores?
- 1.3.1. List of the Largest Shopping Malls in the World
- 2.1.1. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Fixture Size ($Million)
- 2.1.2. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Fixture Size (Quantity)
- 2.1.3. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Fixture Size (ASPs)
- 2.1.4. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Region ($Million)
- 2.1.5. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Region (Quantity)
- 2.1.6. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, By Region (ASPs)
- 2.2.1. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores America Forecast, By Fixture Size ($Million)
- 2.2.2. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores America Forecast, By Fixture Size (Quantity)
- 2.2.3. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores America Forecast, By Fixture Size (ASPs)
- 2.3.1. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores EMEA Forecast, By Fixture Size ($Million)
- 2.3.2. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores EMEA Forecast, By Fixture Size (Quantity)
- 2.3.3. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores EMEA Forecast, By Fixture Size (ASPs)
- 2.4.1. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores APAC Forecast, By Fixture Size ($Million)
- 2.4.2. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores APAC Forecast, By Fixture Size (Quantity)
- 2.4.3. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores APAC Forecast, By Fixture Size (ASPs)
- 4.1. LED Color Variety - Selected Examples
- 4.2. LED Color Chart
List of Figures
- 1.1.1. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast ($Million)
- 1.1.2. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, by Region ($Million)
- 1.1.3. LED Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores Global Forecast, by Size Type ($Million)
- 1.1.4. Product Life Cycle
- 1.2.1. Multi Adjustable LED Spotlight (3000K) Chrome
- 1.2.2. Mini Cylinder LED Track Fixture
- 1.2.3. Mini Cylinder LED Track Assorted Fixtures
- 1.2.4. Standard-Size Cylinder LED Track Fixture
- 1.2.5. Medium-Size Wall Wash LED Track Fixture
- 1.2.6. Large-Size Wall Wash LED Track Fixture
- 1.2.7. Large-Size Wall Wash LED Track Fixture
- 1.2.8. Track Lighting System (Track Components)
- 2.1.1. Incandescent Ban - Global Map
- 2.2.1. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores America Forecast ($Million)
- 2.2.2. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores America Forecast (Quantity/Units)
- 2.3.1. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores EMEA Forecast ($Million)
- 2.3.2. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores EMEA Forecast (Quantity/Units)
- 2.4.1. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores APAC Forecast ($Million)
- 2.4.2. LED-Based Track Lighting Heads in Retail Stores APAC Forecast (Quantity/Units)
- 2.1.1. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, By Region ($Billion)
- 2.1.2. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, By Region (Quantity/Units)
- 2.2.1. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, America Region ($Million)
- 2.2.2. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, America Region (Quantity/Units)
- 2.3.1. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, EMEA Region ($Million)
- 2.3.2. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, EMEA Region (Quantity/Units)
- 2.4.1. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, APAC Region ($Million)
- 2.4.2. LED Lamps Used in General Lighting Forecast, APAC Region (Quantity/Units)
- 3.2.1. LED Wall Wash, Flood Trac Head
- 3.2.2. LED Track Head
- 3.2.3. Vertical LED Track Light Head
- 3.2.4. High Power LED
- 3.2.5. High Power LED
- 3.2.6. LED Track Light Fixture
- 3.2.7. Track Lighting System
- 3.2.8. Silicone Encapsulant and Silicone Lens in LEDs
- 3.2.9. LED Track Lighting Fixture
- 3.2.10. LED Track Lighting Fixture
- 3.2.11. Mounting Track and Light Fixture
- 3.2.12. High Performance LED Tack Lighting Fixture (Head)
- 3.2.13. LED Light in Track Light Fixture
- 3.2.14. LED Track Lighting Head
- 3.2.15. LED Track Lighting Head
- 3.2.16. LED Vertical Wall Lighter Track Fixture
- 3.2.17. Driver on Board LED Module for Lighting
- 3.2.18. LED Track Lighting Head
- 3.2.19. LED Spotlight - Track Lighting Head
- 3.2.20. LED Spotlight - Track Light Fixture
- 3.2.21. Track Light - Commercial Lighting
- 3.2.22. Flood LED Track Heads
- 3.2.23. LED Mini Cylinder
- 3.2.24. 7W Warm White 40 DEG MR16
- 3.2.25. Low-Profile / Ultra-Compact Chip LEDs
- 3.2.26. Smart Lighting Module
- 3.2.27. High Power (LED Component)
- 3.2.28. Package (LED)
- 3.2.29. Chip-On-Board (COB)
- 3.2.30. CE Track Light - Accent Lighting
- 3.2.31. Commercial Grade LED Track Lighting Head
- 3.2.32. LED Track Lighting Spotlight
- 3.2.33. Wall Wash Track Head
- 4.1. Green light emission from RPCVD p-GaN layers grown on MOCVD
- 4.2. ATEX & IECEx Certified Explosion- proof LED Light
- 4.3. Highest-Performing Single-Die LED (XHP35 LEDs)
- 4.4. LEDs on a Metal Core Linear Flexible Printed Circuit Board
- 4.5. LED Chromatic Chart
- 4.6. Evolution of Research Emphasis During Technology Life Cycle
- 4.7. Wire-Bondable Silicon ESD Diode Chip in Gel-Packs
- 4.8. LED Chip: Metal Layer (Thin Film Technology)
- 4.9. AC LED Technology on a Wafer
- 4.10. UV LED Chip Packages
- 4.11. Fully Printed Halide Perovskite LEDs with Silver Nanowire Electrodes
- 4.12. Ultra High Bright LED Chip
- 4.13. LED Chip Design with Copper Alloy Thermal Conductivity
- 4.14. LED Chip Design - Sapphire vs. Copper Alloy
- 4.15. Ultra-Thin LED
- 4.16. Solid-State Lighting LED
- 4.17. LED Module with High Light Quality
- 4.18. LED Module with Low-Profile Rectangular Shape
- 4.19. Lumiramic Phosphor Technology: Thin Film Flip Chip (TFFC) technology
- 4.20. Next-Generation Light Emitting Diode Module
- 4.21. 4-Leaded RGB LED
- 4.22. Basic Structure of a Deep-UV Light-Emitting Diode
- 4.23. Vertically Conducting Advanced LED Structure
- 4.24. AlGaInP LED Efficacy
- 4.25. Red Nitride Phosphors
- 4.26 . 70mW UV-C LED
- 4.27. DUV-LED (Surface mount devices / SMDs)
- 5.1. ElectroniCast Market Research & Forecasting Methodology