Outside Plant Fiber Optic Cable Ducts, U.S.A. Market Forecast & Analysis
ページ情報: 英文 110 Pages
当レポートは、米国における屋外施設用光ファイバーケーブルダクト市場の分析・予測を提供しており、顧客タイプ (アクセスプロバイダー & サービスプロバイダー、専用または顧客所有ネットワーク) および製品タイプ (メインダクト/コンジット、マイクロダクト/インターダクト) 別の市場予測データ、および主要企業のプロファイルなどをまとめています。
Deployment methods for outside plant (OSP) fiber optic cable conduit/ducts/innerducts vary; this market study covers all methods, except aerial.
The general purpose of conduit, or duct, is to provide a clear, protected pathway for a cable or for smaller conduits, sometimes called mini-ducts or innerducts.
To provide an opportunity, in the future, to allow for additional fiber optic cable within an existing underground deployment, without the trouble and cost of retrenching, is a major advantage of the use of ducts for underground deployments.
This report provides our analysis and forecast of the use of non-aerial ducts, in the United States (U.S.A.), which are installed to accommodate fiber optic cable. In regards to ducts that accommodate copper/coaxial and fiber optic cable, we also include the consumption (use) of the duct in our market data, however, innerducts, that accommodate a copper/coaxial cable only, are not included.
For the purposes of this market study, Loose Tube Fiber Optic Cable is considered cable and not pre-installed fiber optic cable inside of a duct; therefore, the consumption of Loose Tube Fiber Optic Cable is not quantified in the market data of this particular study.
There are several methods, to deploy fiber optic cable below grade, as listed in Table 1.
The duct diameter guidelines are ElectroniCast classification guidelines and not necessarily representative of industry standards or guidelines.
Methods to Deploy Below Grade OSP Fiber Optic Cable
The fiber optic cable duct market forecast data are built up from specific customer types, as shown below:
Service providers that provide landline telephony are considered in the Telecommunications category, even if they also provide Internet, Cable TV, as well as mobile/cell phone service; service providers that offer mobile/cell phone service (only) are considered in the Telecommunications application category.
Service providers that provide Cable TV and/or Internet and (plus) mobile/cell phone service are considered in the Cable TV/Multimedia application category. Companies that provide Internet (only) are considered in the Cable TV/Multimedia category.
The remaining (other) customer type consists of Private or Customer Owned Networks, which do not necessarily fit in the Telecommunication or Cable TV segments, such as government of private enterprise outside duct deployment, such as building-to-building (campus) installations.
In this ElectroniCast study, below-grade Outside Plant (OSP) fiber cable duct used for street/roadway government (municipality/other) and Utilities is generally quantified (counted) in the Access Providers (APs) and Service Providers category; however, campuses - such as hospitals, schools or other government-owned (public) institutions are counted in the Customer Network category.
The market forecast data are also segmented by the following two product types:
The forecast for each product-level is presented by function:
Market analysis and forecasting are complex tasks. Any predictions of the shape and trends of technology and economic movement start from the notion that the germ of what will be important tomorrow is present, although smaller or larger or in a different form, in our environment today. However, taking as a basis for a prediction the assumptions of current, conventional belief creates a set of preconceived notions that can lead to serious mistakes. ElectroniCast, instead, looks to the basic driving forces. The future market for this particular product category depends on a number of factors, including:
ElectroniCast analysts perform interviews with authoritative and representative individuals involved with fiber optic installation apparatus, cable, conduits/ducts, and component and device (product) development, manufacturing, and distribution/ marketing/sales, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of pertinent products.
The interviews are conducted principally with:
The interviews cover issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Customers (contractor/installers, telecommunication operators, distributors, and similar) are interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid, as a crosscheck of vendor estimates. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products will be researched.
A review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources are reviewed:
In analyzing the complexities of the marketplace for the selected products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participate in this study are qualified.
The background market research focuses on the amount of the selected fiber optic cable duct each product (duct or mini-duct/innerduct) used in each application in the base year (2017), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward digital broadband communication equipment usage and economic payback (the methodology is further illustrated by Figure 1).
ElectroniCast - Market Research & Forecasting Methodology
The quantities of fiber optic attenuators, DWDM, optical fiber/cable, connectors, transceivers, transport terminals, optical add/drop MUX, couplers/splitters, isolators, photonic switches and other products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each fiber optic related product field, accurate current quantity estimates in each application are part of this corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a “sanity check.”
ElectroniCast, each year since 1985, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of each fiber optic component category. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.
The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid-1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.