米国の風力発電運転・保守管理戦略：2012-2025年

米国の新規風力発電プロジェクト建設が、生産税控除の2012年以降に向けた生産税控除延長を待ちわびるなか、プロジェクト所権者や関連メーカーは、既存風力発電施設の運転＆保守管理により多くの力を注いでいます。風力タービンメーカーやプロジェクト所有者は、より効率的に既存風力施設の収益および生産能力を最大化する新戦略を開発する途上にあります。

当レポートでは、（1）運転・保守管理市場に参入している独立系サービスプロバイダーや風力タービンメーカー、主要部品サプライヤー、風力発電施設所有者の戦略プロフィールおよび競合ポジショニング、（2）同分野の市場環境、（3）サービスセグメンテーションおよびコスト分析、（4）市場予測の最新情報を集め、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

• 米国風力フリートの特徴
  • 所有者ごとに異なるフリートの経年度で規定される運転・保守管理ニーズ
  • 急速に進化する風力技術とともに高まる運転・保守管理の難度
• 運転・保守管理契約は生産性重視に移行
  • 性能アップグレードがもたらす新たな収益の道筋
  • 付加価値サービスモデルに移行するOEM
• 運転・保守管理における競争戦略
  • 独立系発電事業者と発電設備内製能力
  • タービン市場の冷え込みに伴って長期化するOEM保証
  • 競争激化で予測される独立系サービスプロバイダー再編
• 米国風力施設の運転・保守管理支出は倍増へ

第2章 運転・保守管理市場環境

• 米国運転・保守管理市場機会の規模とタイミング
  • 米国風力フリートの経年度分布
  • 経年保証期間が終了する米国風力フリートも
  • 設置風力タービンの地理分布
• 技術構成と米国の風力タービンフリート
  • サイズ、技術別に見る米国の風力タービン分布
  • 米国フリートにおけるOEMの多様性

• 風力タービンの所有状況
  • 風力ファーム開発および所有におけるトレンド
  • フリートの特徴を比較する
• 風力エネルギー導入の将来見通し
  • 風力発電の成長予測
  • 政策支援で形成される風力発電の成長機会

第3章 風力タービン運転・保守管理市場予測

• 予測方法
• 米国運転・保守管理市場予測：2012-2025年
  • サービス形式別市場予測
  • 地域別市場価額
  • 企業形式別市場予測
• 初期保証を終えるタービン数予測

第4章 風力運転管理サービスおよび技術

• 風力ファームの運転管理と保守サービス
  • 風力プロジェクト運転管理におけるトレンド
  • 風力プロジェクト保守サービスにおけるトレンド
• 運転管理サービスのコスト
  • 主要部品修理で繰り返し発生する風力運転管理サービスコスト
  • 「バスタブ曲線」をたどる運転管理サービスの生涯コスト

第5章 運転・保守管理競争戦略

• バリューチェーンに沿った運転・保守管理競争
  • 浮上するバリューチェーン戦略
  • 新たな風力市場環境の王道は生産性重視
  • タービン受注難から保証を通じてサービス到達範囲を広げるOEM
• 風力ファーム所有者の運転・保守管理戦略
  • 独立系発電事業者の運転・保守管理戦略
  • 運転・保守管理コスト制御に向けて、社内サービスや独立系サービスプロバイダーに転換する電力事業者
• 競争戦略：独立系サービスプロバイダー、OEM、サードパーティプロバイダー
  • 風力 - 運転・保守管理にコスト競争を持ち込むことで苦戦する独立系サービスプロバイダー
  • 運転・保守管理市場に命運を託す風力タービンOEM
  • 切り口を模索する部品サプライヤー
• 戦略プロフィール
  • 風力ファーム所有者
  • OEM
  • 独立系サービスプロバイダー

添付資料一覧

Abstract

With new US wind project build awaiting an extension of the Production Tax Credit post-2012, wind project owners and manufacturers are placing greater emphasis on Operations and Maintenance Services (O&M) on existing wind assets. Wind turbine manufacturers and project owners are in the process of developing new strategies to more effectively maximize project revenues and production potential at existing wind project sites.

Study Highlights:

• O&M Market Player Profiles: Strategy profiles and competitive positioning of Independent Service Providers (ISPs), Wind Turbine Manufacturers, Major Component Suppliers, and Wind Farm Owners
• O&M Market Environment: Scale and Timing of US Wind O&M Opportunity, US Wind Turbine Fleet, Wind Development Outlook
• O&M Service Segmentation and Cost Analysis: Trends in Wind Project Operations, Trends in Wind Project Services, Levelized O&M Cost Breakdown
• O&M Market Forecasts: by Service Type, Company Type, and Turbines out of O&M Warranty

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. Characteristics of the US Wind Fleet

• Fleet Age Varies Among Owners, Defines O&M Needs
• Quickly Evolving Wind Technology Heightens O&M Complexity

2. O&M Contracts Shift to Emphasize Productivity

• Performance Upgrades Offer New Revenue Stream
• OEMs Shift to Value Added Service Models

3. Competitive Strategies in O&M

• IPPs and Utilities Build Capabilities In - House
• OEM Warranties Lengthen as Turbine Market Cools
• ISP Shake - up Expected as Competition Intensifies

4. US Wind O&M Expenditures to Double

II. O&M MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1. Scale and Timing of the US O&M Market Opportunity

• US Wind Fleet Age Distribution
• An Aging US Wind Fleet Comes off Warranty
• Geographic Distribution of Installed Wind Turbines

2. Technology Mix and the US Wind Turbine Fleet

• U S Wind Turbine Distribution by Size, Technology
  • 1.5 - 2.0 MW Turbines Dominate Installed Fleet
  • Turbines Set to Continue to Scale - Up in Size
  • Direct - Drive Turbines Make US Debut
  • Longer Warranties Speed Adoption of Next - Generation Turbines
• OEM Diversity in the US Fleet
  • US Turbine Market Shows Signs of Consolidation
  • Twenty OEMs Lead To Fragmented Installed Base

3. Wind Turbine Ownership

• Trends in Wind Farm Development and Ownership
  • 2012 Boom Year Highlights Strength of Large IPPs
  • Rate - Based Utility Ownership Grows
  • Weak Power Price Challenges Merchant Wind Owners' on O&M
• Comparing Fleet Characteristics
  • Among Largest Players, Average Turbine Age is d"5 Years Old
  • Most Owners Rely on One to Two OEMs for Majority of Build
  • Leaders Look to Manage Pan - National Fleets

4. Wind Energy Deployment Outlook

• Wind Growth Forecast
• Policy Support Shapes Wind Growth Opportunity
  • PTC Uncertainty Fuels 2012 Boom and 2013 Bust
  • State RPS Policies Drive Wind
  • Offshore Wind Gains a Small Share of the Market

III. WIND TURBINE O&M FORECASTS

1. Forecast Methodology

2. US O&M Market Forecast: 2012 - 2025

• O&M Market Forecast by Service Type
• O&M Market Value by Region
• O&M Forecasts by Company Type
  • US Wind Farm Owners Take On Full O&M Management
  • ISPs, OEMs Capture More than Half of the Services Market

3. Forecast of Turbines Exiting Initial Warranty

IV. WIND O&M SERVICES AND TECHNOLOGIES

1. Operations Management and Services for Wind Farms

• Trends in Wind Project Operations Management
  • Grid Integration Challenges Emphasize Forecasting and Control
  • Based Monitoring Systems (CBM) Proliferate as Owners Seek Optimization
  • Performance Upgrades Gain Traction
  • Asset Managers Focus on Improved Data Collection and Analysis
• Trends in Wind Project Services
  • Major Component O&M Attracts Mix of Specialized Manufacturers and ISPs
  • Crane Access Drives Preventative Maintenance and Partnerships
  • Wind Substation Services Taken on by Grid Leaders
  • Preventive Maintenance Technology Aims to Extend Lifetime of Blades and Towers
  • Post - Commissioning and End - of - Warranty Inspections Provide Opportunity for ISPs

2. Cost of Wind Farm O&M

• Major Component Repair Dings Wind O&M Costs
• "Bathtub Curve" Defines Shape of Lifetime O&M costs

V. WIND O&M COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES

1. O&M Competition Along the Value Chain

• Value Chain Strategies Emerge
• Productivity is King in New Wind Market Environment
• OEMs Extend Services Reach through Warranties as Turbine Orders Slump

2. Wind Farm Owner Strategies in O&M

• IPP O&M Strategies
  • Large, Integrated IPPs Leverage Diversified Portfolios to Bring O&M In - House
  • IPPs with Smaller Wind Portfolios Turn to Third Parties
• Utilities Turn In - House and to ISPs to Control O&M Costs

3. Competitive Strategies: ISPs, OEMs & Third - Party Providers

• Wind - ISPs Strive to Bring Cost Competition to O&M
  • enXco Leads ISP Charge
  • Upwind, Outland Emerge Behind enXco from ISP Crowd
  • Less Established Wind ISPs Gain Foothold through Partnerships
  • International Wind ISPs Wade into US Market
  • Cross - Over O&M Providers Look to Leap into Wind
• Wind Turbine OEMs Stake Positions in O&M Market
  • OEM Warranties Evolve to Meet US Customer Demands
  • OEMs Expanding Physical Footprint for O&M Services
  • OEMs Look to Leverage Technology Advantage over ISPs
  • Leading OEMs Look for Key to Unlock Owners' Portfolios
• Component Suppliers Look for Openings
  • Gearbox Manufacturers Adjust to Limit Project Downtime
  • Blade Manufacturers Branch Out and Expand Service Offerings

4. Strategy Profiles

• Wind Farm Owners
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners
  • Duke Energy Generation Services (DEGS)
  • E.ON Climate and Renewables
  • First Wind
  • Horizon Wind Energy
  • Iberdrola Renewables
  • Infigen
  • MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. (MEHC)
  • NextEra Energy
  • NRG
  • Oklahoma Gas & Electric (OG&E)
  • RES Americas
  • Ridgeline
  • Xcel Energy
• OEMs
  • Acciona Windpower
  • Clipper
  • Gamesa
  • GE
  • Mitsubishi Power Systems
  • Nordex
  • REpower
  • Siemens
  • Suzlon
  • Vestas
• ISPs
  • enXco Service Corps
  • Global Energy Services (GES)
  • Outland
  • Run Energy
  • UpWind
  • Other Companies

LIST OF EXHIBITS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1. Key US Wind Fleet Metrics: 2011 vs. 2025
• 2. Age of Installed Wind Fleet by Region
• 3. Fleet Age for the Top 25 Owners of US Wind Capacity: YE 2011
• 4. US Turbine Size Forecasts (annual units installations)
• 5. Risk Shifting Strategies in Wind O&M
• 6. Aftermarket Turbine Performance Upgrades
• 7. Select Warranty Packages by OEM
• 8. Wind Industry Participants Position for O&M Business
• 9. In - House O&M Capabilities of Large US Wind IPPs
• 10. Length of Select OEM Warranty Offerings
• 11. Independent Service Provider Company Overview
• 12. Annual Expenditure on Wind O&M Market by Service Type (2012 Real US$)
• 13. Annual Expenditures on Wind O&M, Development and Equipment

II. O&M MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• 1. O&M Market Environment
• 2. Cumulative US Wind Turbine Installations by Year
• 3. Age of Installed Wind Fleet by Region
• 4. Turbine Installations vs. Warranty
• 5. Number of Wind Turbine Installations By State
• 6. Age Distribution of the US Turbine Fleet
• 7. Age of Fleet by Turbine Size
• 8. Age Distribution by Turbine Size of Installed Wind Fleet (Year - end 2011)
• 9. Wind Product Rotor Size vs. Nameplate Capacity Trends
• 10. US Turbine Size Forecasts (annual units installations)
• 11. Onshore Wind Turbines by Generator and Gearbox Type
• 12. Manufacturer Diversity and US Wind Turbine Fleet Age
• 13. Wind Turbine OEM Cumulative Market Share (YE 2011)
• 14. Installed Fleet Age by Wind Turbine Manufacturer
• 15. Ranking of Top 25 Largest Owners of Net Wind Capacity in the US
• 16. Capacity Ownership by Large IPPs with In - House O&M
• 17. Merchant vs. Contracted Wind Build: 2008 - 2012
• 18. Regional On - Peak Power Prices vs. Natural Gas Prices: 2008 - 2012
• 19. Fleet Age for Top 25 US Wind Capacity Owners
• 20. Turbine Age Among the 25 Largest Owners of US Wind Capacity
• 21. Top 20 US Wind Plant Owners by WTG Suppler (% of Owner Portfolio by OEM)
• 22. Geographic Portfolio Diversity of Top 20 Wind Capacity Owners
• 23. Wind Forecast by Region (annual additions, units)
• 24. PTC's Impact on Historic Wind Development Levels (MW): 1992 - 2013
• 25. RPS Demand by State
• 26. Offshore vs. Onshore Wind Forecasts (annual additions, units)

III. WIND TURBINE O&M FORECASTS

• 1. Annual Expenditures on Wind O&M, Development, and Equipment
• 2. Annual Expenditure on Wind O&M Market by Service Type (2012 Real US$)
• 3. Annual Expenditure on O&M by RTO
• 4. Expectations for Wind Farm O&M Management and Services by Company Type
• 5. O&M Contract Management by Contract Value
• 6. Projections in Wind Fleet O&M Services Performed
• 7. Wind Turbines Out of Initial OEM Warranty (MW)

IV. WIND O&M SERVICES AND TECHNOLOGIES

• 1. Key Operational and Service Responsibilities in Wind O&M
• 2. Sample List of Condition - Based Monitoring (CBM) Suppliers
• 3. Sample List of O&M Services by Level of Specialization
• 4. Manufacturers and Service Providers for Major Wind Turbine Components
• 5. O&M Cost Range on a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Basis
• 6. Levelized O&M Costs by Type of O&M Service Category
• 7. Conceptual Lifecycle Costs of a Representative Wind Project

V. WIND O&M COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES

• 1. O&M Value Chain Positioning by Company Type
• 2. Wind Industry Participants Position for O&M Business
• 3. Risk Shifting Strategies in Wind O&M
• 4. Length of Select OEM Warranty Offerings
• 5. Planned Post - Warranty O&M Strategies by Company Type
• 6. Degree of O&M Outsourcing by Wind Player
• 7. In - House O&M Capabilities of Large US Wind IPPs
• 8. Select Long - Term OEM Warranties Signed by Wind - Focused Developers
• 9. Utility Approaches to O&M
• 10. Select Major O&M Contract Announcements
• 11. Independent Service Provider Company Overview
• 12. enXco Service Corp. O&M Contracts by Owner and Turbine Type
• 13. Major ISP O&M US Contract Project Map
• 14. ISP Partnerships with OEMs and other ISPs
• 15. US MW Under Contract by ISP Company Type
• 16. Historic Wind Growth and Manufacturing Investment
• 17. Select Warranty Packages by OEM
• 18. Map of OEM Manufacturing and Service Facilities
• 19. GE Wind Turbine Upgrades Offered
• 20. Major Component Supplier - OEM Relationships