市場調査レポート

米国の送電市場と各種戦略:2011-2020年

US Transmission Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020

発行 IHS Emerging Energy Research 商品コード 222808
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
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米国の送電市場と各種戦略:2011-2020年 US Transmission Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020
出版日: 2011年11月15日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

現在の米国の電力グリッドの状況は、米国のエネルギー産業にとって極めて重要な課題となっています。同国の送電インフラは数十年の投資不足の影響で老朽化が見られるにもかかわらず、厳格な信頼性基準に従い、また、電力市場の大幅な変化にも対応する必要に迫られています。再生可能エネルギーに関する州の義務も、米国全土の送電設備への投資の緊急性に拍車をかけています。

当レポートでは、米国の送電グリッドの現状と関連各社の各種取り組みについて調査分析し、再生可能エネルギー市場への影響の分析、高電圧送電線に必要な投資の検証、新旧のディベロッパーおよび設備保有企業の競合上の位置づけ、関連支援策と法規制、送電タイプ・地域別の投資予測、送電プロジェクトのプロファイル、関連各社の戦略、主要各社のプロファイルなどをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 送電市場の成長牽引因子・政策

  • 高電圧送電投資の根本的推進因子
    • 将来の成長の指標としての継続的投資
    • 複数のメリットを得られるモデルと送電開発の新しい動向
  • 送電推進因子としての再生可能エネルギー
    • 送電ニーズ:州のRPS政策との強い関連性
  • 連邦政府の送電関連政策・規制・規則
    • 地域内・地域間の送電を奨励するFERC
    • 連邦政府によるインセンティブ・助成金
  • 地域的政策・市場構造
    • 組織化された地域市場における送電プランニング
    • 各州の送電市場とイニシアチブ
    • 組織化されていない地域市場における送電開発

第3章 技術動向・開発予測

  • 予測手法
  • 送電設備への投資予測
    • 地域の送電設備への投資動向
    • 投資動向:送電タイプ別
  • 再生可能エネルギーの予測への影響

第4章 開発活動・プロジェクトラインのプロファイル

  • 送電プロジェクト開発動向
    • 地域のプロジェクト開発の取り組み
    • 送電技術の動向
    • 送電コストの動向
  • 送電プロジェクトプロファイル

第5章 ユーティリティ企業・ディベロッパー各社の戦略

  • 送電バリューチェーンの変化
    • 既存のユーティリティ企業TransCos:成長機会を得るため提携
    • 送電の課題に挑む多角化エネルギー企業
    • ピュアプレイディベロッパー:野心的な資産の動員
  • 送電設備オーナーの競合上の位置づけ
    • 主流のユーティリティ企業
    • 送電設備のオーナーおよびディベロッパー
    • M&Aと送電設備オーナーランキングの変更
  • 送電設備オーナー構造
    • 地域のコスト配分とリターンの確実性
    • 代替開発モデルの進化
  • 関連企業の各種戦略
    • ユーティリティ企業の送電開発戦略
    • 送電企業の各種戦略
    • 多角化エネルギー企業
    • ピュアプレイディベロッパー
    • IPPの送電開発戦略

第6章 ディベロッパープロファイル

  • ユーティリティ企業
  • 送電企業
  • 連邦政府
  • 多角的エネルギー企業
  • ディベロッパー
  • IPP

図表

目次

The state of the US electric grid is a pivotal issue for the energy industry. The country's transmission infrastructure has been subject to increasingly rigorous reliability standards and significant changes to power markets while also weakened by decades of under-investment. Current state mandates for renewable energy have increased the urgency for transmission investment across the US. Over 70 GW of renewable energy capacity will need to come online by 2020 to meet state renewable portfolio requirements -- new transmission development is crucial for this new capacity.

With up to US$100 Billion of capital investment required in the US transmission sector over the next decade, transmission developers are seeking innovative ownership and financing models to advance projects. These new models have been increasingly facilitated by the greater flexibility afforded by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and regional planning authorities. The top 20 owners of transmission control over 60% of the total installed transmission in the US greater than 345kV, but a host of new entrants now see transmission as a key investment opportunity.

A landmark new study from IHS Emerging Energy Research, US Transmission Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020, analyzes the US transmission grid. It evaluates the impact on renewable energy markets, the investment required in high voltage lines, and the competitive positioning of established and emerging transmission developers and owners.

Following are just a few key trends analyzed in this new study:

  • Utilities expand transmission footprint through both new and established business models: Driven by regional expansion ambitions and RPS obligations, utilities are leveraging inherent strengths in transmission to expand their market presence. Led by AEP, MidAmerican and Duke Energy, utilities are building a pipeline of transmission projects to be submitted into the RTO/ISO planning processes. Major utility transmission owners are pursuing regulated rate-based build, establishing newly formed joint ventures, and spinning off new transcos for expansion.
  • Cost allocation key to unlocking new transmission for renewable energy: A recent ruling by FERC (Order 1000) allows renewables-focused transmission to be eligible for regional cost allocation, mitigating risk for investors. Regional Transmission Organizations including ERCOT, Midwest ISO, and SPP have instituted new cost allocation methodologies to allow for more renewables-enabling transmission. However, long permitting and development timelines continue to bring risk and uncertainty for transmission projects and their developers.
  • New players look to unlock renewables through transmission development: The drive to unlock renewable power generation is attracting players from across the energy spectrum into transmission development. Integrated energy companies, independent power producers, and pure play developers, are aiming to seize the opportunity. Some are pursuing novel business models, while others are competing with utilities for regional cost allocation.

Exhibit 5-12: Competitive Positioning of US Transmission Developers

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS:

Transmission Investment Forecasts through 2020

  • Annual Investment Forecasts ($)
  • Investment Forecast by Region
  • Investment Forecasts by Transmission Type

Strategy Profiles of Transmission Developers

  • Pure-Play Transmission Developers
  • Integrated Utilities
  • Independent Transmission Companies
  • Independent Power Producers
  • Diversified Energy Players

Profiles of Major Transmission Initiatives

  • Over 20,000 miles of proposed high voltage lines
  • Status of projects in development
  • Regional map project details
  • Regional Analysis: MISO, SPP, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NY ISO, WECC

Transmission Development Activity

  • Financing/Ownership Strategies
  • Approved and proposed projects by region
  • Planned Investment by Company Type
  • Energy Storage Integration
  • Transmission Cost Trend Analysis

Transmission Policy Landscape and Market Drivers

  • Status of Regional Planning Processes
  • State Transmission Initiatives
  • Federal Policies (FERC)
  • Regional Bottlenecks
  • Transmission Subsidies
  • Impact of Renewable Energy

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. TRANSMISSION MARKET DRIVERS AND POLICIES

1. Foundational Drivers of High Voltage Transmission Investment

  • Historical Investment as an Indicator of Future Growth
  • Multiple Benefit Model to Mark New Trend in Transmission Development

2. Renewable Energy as a Transmission Driver

  • Transmission Need Strongly Linked to State RPS Policies
    • Scale of State RPS Driven Demand
    • Transmission Constraints Become Apparent as Renewables Penetration Grows
    • Renewable Resource Quality Drives Regional Price Differences
    • RPS Policy Retrenchment Represents Major Risk to Transmission Investment Growth Implications of a Federal Clean Energy Standard

3. Federal Transmission Policies, Regulations and Market Rules

  • FERC to Encourage Regional and Inter-Regional Transmission
    • Regional Transmission Operators Lead the Way in Planning and Cost Allocation
    • Regions Enhance Transmission Planning to Align with State RPS Objectives
    • Elimination of ‘Right of First Refusal’ Sparks New Competitive Paradigm All Siting Remains Local
  • Federal Incentives and Subsidies
    • Rate Incentives for Transmission Serve as Primary Driver for Development
    • ARRA Funding Kick-Starts Investment, Enhances Planning Initiatives

4. Regional Policies and Market Structure

  • Transmission Planning in Organized Regional Markets
    • MISO Targeting Significant Development through Multi-Value Projects (MVPs)
    • SPP to Build EHV Infrastructure under Highways/Byways Cost Allocation
    • PJM Expansion Plans Stalled by Effects of Economic Recession
    • New England Focuses on Reliability and Congestion, Studies Renewables Integration
  • State Transmission Markets and Initiatives
    • California Establishes Clear Path to Achieving 33% RPS
    • Independent ERCOT Formulates Policies on its Own Terms
    • New York ISO Takes Laissez-faire Approach to Planning
    • Michigan Gives Thumbs Up to Wind Energy Resource Zones
  • Transmission Development in Non- Organized Regional Markets
    • Non-organized WECC Regions Gear Up to Build Renewables Foundation
    • Southeast to Focus on Lower Voltage Solutions to Local Reliability Needs

III. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT FORECAST

1. Transmission Forecast Methodology

2. Transmission Investment Forecast

  • Regional Transmission Investment Trends
  • Investment Trends by Transmission Type

3. Implications for Renewable Forecast

IV. DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND PROJECT LINE PROFILES

1. Transmission Project Development Trends

  • Regional Project Development Activity
    • Renewables Drive Majority of the Project Pipeline
    • Regional Development Status of the Transmission Pipeline
  • Transmission Technology Trends
    • DC Targeted For Long Distance Transmission, Fewer Integration Challenges
    • Underground Transmission Gains Attention, but Still Costly
    • Superconducting Transmission Targets Congestion
    • Transmission Developers Eye Pumped Hydro for Renewables Integration
    • Batteries Pose Threat, Opportunity for Large Scale Transmission
  • Transmission Cost Trends
    • Transmission Capital Cost Trends
    • Impact of Transmission Investment on Delivered Cost of Energy

2. Transmission Project Profiles

  • Atlantic Wind Connection
  • Canada - Pacific Northwest - Northern California (CNC) Project
  • CapX 2020 Group 1
  • Champlain-Hudson Power Express
  • Clean Line Energy Partners
  • Energy Gateway Transmission Expansion
  • Grand Rivers Project
  • Green Line (ME-MA)
  • Green Power Express
  • High Plains Express
  • Maine Power Reliability Program
  • McNary-John Day Line
  • Michigan Thumb Loop
  • Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP)
  • Northeast Energy Link
  • Northern Pass
  • ON Line/Southwest Intertie Project
  • Overland Transmission Project
  • Pioneer Transmission
  • Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH)
  • Reliability Interregional Transmission Extension (RITE) Project
  • Southwest Power Pool Initiatives
  • Sunrise Powerlink
  • SunZia Southwest Transmission
  • Tehachapi Renewable Transmission
  • Texas Competitive Renewable Energy Zone (CREZ)
  • The Chinook and Zephyr Lines
  • The LaSalle Line
  • The Mountain States Transmission Intertie
  • TransWest Express
  • West Coast Cable & Juan de Fuca
  • Wind Spirit Project

V. UTILITY AND DEVELOPER STRATEGIES

1. Transmission Value Chain Evolution

  • Incumbent Utilities, TransCos Establish Partnerships to Seize Growth Opportunity
  • Diversified Energy Players Take on the Transmission Challenge
  • Pure Play Developers Mobilize Capital with Ambitious Objectives

2. Competitive Positioning of Transmission Owners

  • Utilities to Remain Dominant
  • Transmission Owners and Developers
  • Mergers and Acquisitions to Reshape Transmission Ownership Rankings

3. Transmission Ownership Structures

  • Regional Cost Allocation Adds Certainty to Project Returns
  • Alternative Development Models Evolve
    • Merchant Lines Rise to Fill
    • Transmission Void where Planning Process Lacking
    • Anchor Tenant Structure Changes Merchant Risk Dynamics
    • Participant Funded Lines Focus on Cost Causation for Economic Development

4. Competitive Transmission Strategies

  • Utility Transmission Development Strategies
    • AEP, Duke, MidAmerican Position at Focal Point as Utility Partnership Strategies Evolve
    • Exelon, Ameren Spin Off TransCos Reflective of Growing Transmission Opportunity
    • Utilities Advance Gigawatt Scale Renewable Energy Transmission Through Regulated Arms
    • Federal Agencies Given New Mission and Funding for Transmission
  • Transmission Company Strategies
    • ITC Seizes Renewables and Reliability Opportunities with Unique Value Proposition
    • ATC Seeks Utility Partnerships to Expand to New Territory
  • Diversified Energy Players
    • TransCanada Blazed Trail with Early Transmission Entrance
    • Enbridge Brings Pipeline Knowledge to Transmission Anschutz Transmission Advances Wind Projects
    • Hunt Pioneers REIT Approach as Financing Strategies Adapt to Emerging Opportunity
  • Pure-Play Developers
    • Clean Line Brings Wind Out of Region with HVDC Trans-Elect Goes Offshore Backed by Google
    • Developers Fight Submarine Siting Battles in Dense Northeast
    • Tres Amigas Pioneers Large Scale Hub Concept
  • IPP Transmission Development Strategies
    • NextEra Advances Leading Wind Position
    • Pattern Energy Makes Successful Development Push
    • LS Power Looks to Capitalize on Early Mover Positioning

VI. DEVELOPER PROFILES

1. Utilities

  • American Electric Power (AEP)
  • Ameren Corporation
  • Duke Energy
  • Electric Transmission America (Electric Transmission Texas)
  • Exelon Corporation
  • FirstEnergy Corporation
  • Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP)
  • MidAmerican Energy
  • National Grid
  • Northeast Utilities (NU)
  • NorthWestern Energy
  • NV Energy
  • Oklahoma Gas & Electric (OG+E)
  • Oncor Corp.
  • Pacific Gas & Electric Company
  • PacifiCorp.
  • Southern California Edison (SCE Corp)
  • San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E)
  • Xcel Energy

2. Transmission Companies

  • American Transmission Company
  • ITC Holdings (ITC)

3. Federal

  • Bonneville Power Administration
  • Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
  • Western Area Power Administration

4. Diversified Energy

  • Anschutz Corporation
  • Enbridge Inc
  • Hunt Power (Sharyland Utilities)
  • TransCanada Corporation

5. Developers

  • Anbaric Transmission
  • Clean Line Energy
  • PowerBridge LLC
  • Trans-Elect Development Company
  • Transmission Developers Inc(TDI)

6. IPPs

  • LS Power
  • NextEra Energy Resources
  • Pattern Energy Group

LIST OF EXHIBITS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. TRANSMISSION MARKET DRIVERS AND POLICIES

  • 1. Summary of Key Drivers of Transmission
  • 2. US Transmission Investment and Changes in Electricity Markets and Policy
  • 3. Historical Renewable Power Capacity Growth in the US
  • 4. Map of State RPS Policies and 2025 Renewables Demand (TWh)
  • 5. Scale of Renewables Demand Relative to Supply by Region to 2025
  • 6. Select Areas with Current and Near-Term Transmission Constraints
  • 7. Regional Price Ranges of Wind Generation (US$/MWh)
  • 8. Summary of Proposed RPS-Related Bills Debated in 2011
  • 9. Summary of Potential Impacts of a CES on Transmission Development Trends
  • 10. Timing of Regional RPS Shortfalls if a CES is Passed
  • 11. Implications of Key Transmission Policies and FERC Rulemaking
  • 12. Progress of Transmission Planning Alignment with Renewable Policy Goals
  • 13. Scale of Renewables-Driven Transmission Planning
  • 14. FERC Rate Incentives for Transmission
  • 15. MISO Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
  • 16. SPP Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
  • 17. PJM Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
  • 18. ISO-NE Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
  • 19. California Transmission Planning and Development Summary
  • 20. Texas Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
  • 21. New York Transmission Planning and Development Summary
  • 22. WECC Transmission Planning and Development Summary

III. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT FORECAST

  • 1. Cumulative and Annual Investment Forecast: Base and Optimistic Cases
  • 2. Annual Investment Forecast: Base and Optimistic Cases
  • 3. Regional Forecast: Base Case and Optimistic Case
  • 4. Forecast High Voltage Miles as % of Existing High Voltage Network
  • 5. Technology Forecast: Base Case
  • 6. Technology Forecast: Optimistic Case
  • 7. Estimated renewable generation unlocked by Region and by Case

IV. DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND PROJECT LINE PROFILES

  • 1. Proposed Completion Date of High Voltage Transmission Projects in the Pipeline
  • 2. Transmission Projects Proposed by Region
  • 3. Approved and Proposed Transmission Investment by Region
  • 4. Renewable Transmission Planned by Driver
  • 5. Transmission Development Pipeline by Technology Type
  • 6. Ranking of Projects by Length and Voltage Type
  • 7. Underground and Submarine Transmission At Varying Stages of Development
  • 8. Major Offshore Transmission Initiatives Along the East Coast
  • 9. Key Superconductor Transmission Projects Since 2004
  • 10. US HydroPower Development and Hydro Power Licensing Activity
  • 11. Battery Technology Development Trends
  • 12. Transmission Project Costs by Mile and Voltage
  • 13. Regional cost of transmission on Delivered Renewable Energy
  • 14. Average Regional Planned Investment per Mile in Renewable Transmission*

V. UTILITY AND DEVELOPER STRATEGIES

  • 1. Positioning of Players Along the Power Supply Value Chain
  • 2. The New Transmission Value Chain
  • 3. Positioning of Select Utilities at Transmission Development Forefront
  • 4. Vertical Integration Relative to Development Strategies of Diversified Energy Cos.
  • 5. Pure-Play Transmission Developers and Investor Relationships
    • Top 25 Owners of Existing High-Voltage Transmission (>345 kV)
  • 6. Planned High-Voltage Transmission
    • Investments by Company Type*
  • 7. Generation and Transmission
    • Ownership Matrix for Top 15 Transmission Owners
  • 8. Impact of Pending M&A on Transmission Ownership Rankings
  • 9. Summary of Transmission Ownership Structures
  • 10. Major Regionally Cost Allocated Lines by Region
  • 11. Positioning of Transmission Developers
  • 12. Timing and Stage of Merchant Projects Under Development in WECC
  • 13. Merchant Lines with Anchor Tenants
  • 14. Value Chain Positioning of Merchant and Participant-Funded Development Models
  • 15. AEP at Center of Utility Transmission Expansion
  • 16. Transmission Development in Midwest- ISO
  • 17. Major Utility-Driven Transmission Initiatives in the US
  • 18. Map of WAPA TIP Investments and Projects Under Review
  • 19. Coalition of Southeastern Utilities Opposing Transmission
  • 20. Enbridge's Renewables Investment Timeline and Transmission Assets
  • 21. Electric Infrastructure Alliance of America REIT Investors
  • 22. Average Cost and Distance per Project by Company Type (US$ Million)
  • 23. Tres Amigas to Establish New Energy Hub
  • 24. NextEra Texas Projects and Transmission Map
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