市場調査レポート

米国の太陽光発電市場と戦略:2011-2025年

US Solar Power Markets and Strategies: 2011-2025

発行 IHS Emerging Energy Research 商品コード 196634
出版日 ページ情報 英文 207 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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米国の太陽光発電市場と戦略:2011-2025年 US Solar Power Markets and Strategies: 2011-2025
出版日: 2011年05月31日 ページ情報: 英文 207 Pages
概要

米国の太陽光発電業界は、パイプラインに18GWのユーティリティ規模のソーラープロジェクトを有し、勢いを増しています。Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)やSolar Carve-outなどの義務化が米国の太陽光発電を促進しています。しかし、急速に変化する技術動向によって、より競合力をつけ、強固な環境を作り出すための開発戦略に変化を与えています。

当レポートでは、太陽エネルギー技術分野におけるプロジェクト開発戦略について広範に分析し、市場環境と2025年までの予測、主な開発業者の戦略プロファイル、技術動向とコスト分析、競合環境などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

第2章 米国の太陽光発電市場環境

  • 太陽光発電環境の変化
    • 技術用途
    • 州、国の動向
  • 米国の政策環境
    • 国の政策と奨励策
    • 州の政策と奨励策
  • 財務環境
  • 太陽光資源とプロジェクトサイト決定
    • 環境面での許可のハードル
    • 公的・民間の土地
    • 大規模集中システムにおける送電のハードル

第3章 ソーラー技術コストと動向

  • ソーラーコスト環境の変化
  • 広範な再生可能エネルギー技術の比較
  • ソーラー技術とコストの変化

第4章 米国の太陽光発電市場予測(2011〜2025年)

  • 米国の太陽光発電予測
    • 予測シナリオ
    • 米国は着実な成長をつづける
    • 短期的市場予測
    • 地域別動向
  • 米国の太陽光発電予測方法
  • 米国の太陽光発電予測
    • 技術導入
    • サイト別設置
  • 米国のCSP予測
    • 米国の太陽光発電予測
    • 州別予測
  • 米国のCPV予測
    • CPV予測
    • 南西部に集中するCPV

第5章 米国の競合戦略と動向

  • 米国太陽光競合環境
  • ランキング
  • バリューチェーンポジショニング
  • 競合環境

第6章 米国ソーラー企業プロファイル

  • 技術プロモーター
  • EPCプロバイダー
  • 開発業者
  • 独立型発電業者
  • ユーティリティ
目次

Abstract

The US solar industry is gaining momentum with over 18 GW of utility - scale solar projects in the pipeline, including 12 GW of photovoltaic (PV) and 6 GW of concentrated solar power (CSP). Regulatory obligations - Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) and solar carve - outs - in 38 and 17 states, respectively, continue to drive solar power in the US. However, rapidly shifting technology economics are altering development strategies to create a more competitive and robust solar landscape.

- IHS EER' s new solar study, US Solar Power Markets and Strategies: 2011 - 2025, provides extensive analysis of project development strategies across the solar technology landscape. Key trends addressed in IHS EER' s new solar study include the following:

- PV developers leverage inherent technology advantages: Presented with a variety of technology options, solar developers are facilitating a nationwide build - out of solar installations. The 35 GW of PV installations by 2025 will be largely driven by PV' s siting flexibility country - wide, demonstrated applications, and speed of deployment. Another 6 GW and 1 GW of CSP and CPV are to be installed by 2025, respectively, driven by the promise of higher efficiencies and thermal characteristics.

- Leading renewable players expand solar positions: The competitive environment across the solar value chain is evolving rapidly with the increasing presence of large renewable players. Increasing development activity across multiple technologies by NextEra, NRG, Iberdrola, Tenaska, and Sempra signals strengthening momentum for the US solar sector. To date, technology promoters, including First Solar and SunPower, and pure - play developers have been at the forefront of solar deployment, but their positions are now being challenged by more entrenched players with greater financial flexibility and power experience.

- Market environment reshaping solar deployment: Still in its infancy, the competition to capture RPS and solar - specific mandates is scaling. As the overarching policies provide the best line of sight into utilities' future demand, particularly at current technology cost projections, an emerging group of developers capable of overcoming the complex siting, transmission, and financial hurdles are moving toward the winner' s circle.

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

  • US Solar Market Forecasts Through 2025
    • US Solar PV Forecasts Through 2025
    • US CSP Forecasts
    • US CPV Forecasts
    • State Solar Forecasts
  • Strategy Profiles of US Solar Developers
    • Strategy Profiles of Utilities, Developers, IPPs, EPC Providers, and Technology Promoters
    • Value Chain Positioning
    • Strategic Relationships
    • Operating Projects
    • Project Pipeline
  • US Solar Technology and Cost Analysis
    • Comparative Cost Positioning
    • Technology Deployment
    • Supply/Demand Impacts
    • Technology Supply Chain Characteristics
  • US Solar Competitive Landscape
    • US Solar Developer Rankings
    • Value Chain Evolution
    • US IPPs Move Into Solar Ownership
    • Multi - Technology Strategies Emerge
  • US Solar Market Landscape
    • Technology Landscape (CSP, PV, and CPV)
    • Cost Trends
    • US Solar Policy Environment
    • US Solar Resources and Project Siting
    • Financial Climate

**

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. US UTILITY SOLAR MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1. The Shifting Solar Landscape

  • Technology Applications Set Solar Deployment
  • State, Federal Landscape Drives Build - Out

2. US Policy Environment

  • Federal Policies and Incentives ITC Provides Long Term Potential Loan Guarantee Yet to Deliver at Scale Clean Energy Standard
  • State Policies and Incentives State Renewable Portfolio Standards Solar Carve - Outs California Presents Strongest Potential for Large Solar Renewable Energy Credits

3. Financial Climate

  • Solar Technologies Differ on Financing
  • Tax Equity Market Looks Beyond Cash Grant
  • Mix of Renewable Tax Equity Players Shifts
  • Loan Guaranee Key to Debt Financing

4. Solar Resources and Project Siting

  • Environmental Permitting Hurdles
  • Public vs. Private Lands
  • Transmission Hurdles Center on Large Centralized Systems

III. SOLAR TECHNOLOGY COST AND TRENDS

1. Evolving Solar Cost Environment

  • Scale Drives Solar Cost Curves
  • Commodities Behind CSP Cost Movement
  • PV Rides Supply and Demand Waves

2. Broader Renewable Technology Comparison

  • Renewable LCOE Trajectories Cross Paths
  • Value of Dispatchable Electricity

3. Solar Technology and Cost Evolution

  • PV Technology Strategies Crack Utility Market
    • Siting Shapes Cost Profile
    • Global Manufacturing Drives Down Costs
    • Thin Film Advantage eroding
    • Focus Turns to PV Balance of System
  • Second Generation CSP at the Edge of Opportunity
    • CSP Technology Costs
    • Lessons Learned from Traditional Steam Power Plants
    • Multiple Hour Storage on the Horizon
    • Commoditization vs. Customization
  • CPV Searches for Place
    • CPV Scattershot Searchs for PLace
    • Technology Promoters Launch Demonstration

IV. US UTILITY SOLAR MARKET FORECASTS THROUGH 2011 - 2025

1. US Solar PV Forecasts

  • Forecast Scenarios
  • US Continues Steady Growth Trajectory
  • PV Captures US Solar Market in Near Term
  • Geographic Mix

2. US Solar Forecast Methodology

  • Solar Carve - out Demand
  • California Demand
  • Solar Pipelines Guide Market Forward

3. US Solar PV Forecasts

  • US PV Forecasts
  • State by State Analysis
  • Technology Deployment
  • Installations by Siting

4. US CSP Forecasts

  • US PV Forecasts
  • State by State Analysis
  • CSP Technology Deployment

5. US CPV Forecasts

  • CPV Forcasts
  • CPV Focuses on Southwest US

V. US SOLAR COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES AND TRENDS

1. US Solar Competitive Landscape

Solar Value Chain Landscape Large Power Players Shift Gears with Multi - Technology Portfolios

2. US Solar Rankings

Operating Solar Capacity Owwnership Announced US Solar Pipeline

3. US Solar Value Chain Positioning

PV Value Chain Positioning Finds Clearer Definition CSP Value Chain Slowly Evolves

4. Competitive Landscape

  • Solar Ownership and Investment Trends
    • First Solar, PV Technology Promoters Build Market to Sell Off
    • Total S.A. Entry Shakes Up PV Sector
    • Projects Flipping Technology
    • CSP' s Economic Scale Requires Early Investors
    • Utilities Move Toward Solar Ownership
  • Solar Development Trends
    • IPPs, Utilities Leverage Solar Siting Advantages
    • Public and Private Land
    • Mega PV Projects Inch Forward
    • Scaling Solar Market Attracts EPC Leaders
    • CPV Players Lean on Government, Partners to Deploy Demos

VI. US SOLAR COMPANY PROFILES

Technology Promoters

  • Abengoa Solar
  • Amonix
  • BrightSource Energy
  • BP Solar
  • First Solar
  • Soitec
  • Solar Millennium
  • SolarReserve
  • Solon
  • SunPower

EPC Providers

  • Abener
  • Bechtel
  • Chevron Energy Solutions
  • Fluor
  • Parsons
  • Kiewit Engineering
  • Quanta Services
  • RMT
  • Zachry

Developers

  • American Capital Energy
  • Axio Power
  • Community Energy
  • Foresight Renewables
  • Fotowatio Renewable Ventures
  • juwi solar
  • K Road Power
  • Lightsource Renewables
  • Meridian Energy

Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

  • AES Solar
  • Con Edison
  • Constellation Energy
  • Duke Energy Generation Services
  • enXco
  • Eurus Energy
  • Iberdrola Renewables
  • Invenergy
  • LS Power
  • NRG Solar
  • NextEra Energy Resources
  • PSEG Solar Source
  • Recurrent Energy
  • RRE Power
  • Sempra Generation
  • Silverado Power
  • Solar Project Solutions
  • Southern Company
  • Starwood Energy
  • Summit Power
  • SunEdison
  • Sustainable Energy Capital Partners
  • Tenaska Solar Ventures

Utilities

  • American Electric Power (AEP)
  • Arizona Public Service (APS)Austin Energy
  • CPS Energy
  • Duke Energy
  • El Paso Electric
  • Exelon
  • Florida Power & Light
  • Jacksonville Electric Authority
  • Lakeland Electric
  • Long Island Power Authority
  • NV Energy
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