市場調査レポート

米国の風力発電市場と戦略:2011-2025年

US WIND POWER MARKETS AND STRATEGIES: 2011-2025

発行 IHS Emerging Energy Research 商品コード 191139
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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米国の風力発電市場と戦略:2011-2025年 US WIND POWER MARKETS AND STRATEGIES: 2011-2025
出版日: 2011年05月16日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

米国の風力発電市場は、天然ガス価格の低下、送電能力の限界、連邦政府政策の不確定などを背景に停滞傾向が続き、2010年の導入件数は前年の50%に留まりました。これは2004年以降で最大の下落幅となります。今後の4年間は、米国の風力発電市場規模は平均6ギガワットとなる見込みです。

当レポートでは、米国における風力発電を促進・阻害する様々な要因について分析すると共に、2025年までの市場動向予測や、関連市場の競争動向や主要企業プロファイル・戦略などの情報を盛り込んで、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

I. エグゼクティブ・サマリー

II. 米国の風力発電の需要促進・抑制要因

第1章 連邦および各州の政策促進要因

  • 再生可能エネルギー・ポートフォリオ標準
  • 温室効果ガス対策の進展

第2章 風力発電向けインセンティブのメカニズム

  • 連邦税控除と米国財務省
  • その他の連邦レベルのインセンティブ
  • 各州によるインセンティブ

第3章 広範な発電ミックスにおける風力発電

  • 風力発電成長の障害
  • エネルギーコスト

第4章 風力源

  • 最新研究による、陸上での発電機会の増大
  • 本格的開発を待つ、海上風力発電の可能性

第5章 地域的送電機構(RTO)の現状

  • MISO
  • PJM
  • SPP
  • ISO-NE
  • New York-ISO
  • California-ISO
  • Texas-ERCOT

III. 米国の風力発電市場予測

第1章 分析手法

第2章 風力発電能力の予測:基本的ケースの事例

  • 経済的・政治的および電力市場のダイナミクスの影響

第3章 風力発電能力の予測:他ケースの事例

  • 高成長のケース
  • 低成長のケース

IV. 風力発電発展のための競争戦略

第1章 風力発電の所有関係と市場シェア

  • 主要な独立発電事業者(IPP)と開発者との間の、市場競争力の乖離の拡大
  • 公共事業体の所有率は増大傾向

第2章 風力発電開発の障害

  • 国有地でのファストトラック計画の失敗
  • 野生生物保護
  • 海上風力発電に伴う新たな障害

第3章 風力発電開発のための送電設備の展望

  • 送電網へのアクセス不足が促進する新市場の発展

第4章 確実な風力発電用買電合意(PPA)のための競争

第5章 風力発電関連の企業買収・合併活動(M&A)

  • M&Aの増大が企業連合の触媒となる
  • 非中核企業の退出
  • 欧州・カナダからの新規参入企業の出現

第6章 資金調達計画

  • 2010年からの革新的なリース戦略の出現
  • 公共事業体が資金調達のギャップを埋める

第7章 海上風力発電の開発活動

  • 許認可の局面での進展
  • オフテイク時の課題が海上パイプラインに大きなリスクを課す

第8章 風力発電企業プロファイル

  • Brookfield Renewable Power
  • Caithness Energy
  • Cannon Power Group
  • Cape Wind
  • Cielo Wind Power
  • Deepwater Wind
  • Element Power
  • Enbridge
  • EverPower
  • Heritage Sustainable Energy
  • Juhl Wind
  • juwi
  • Kansas City Power & Light
  • Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
  • Midwest Wind Energy
  • Minnesota Power
  • National Wind
  • NRG Bluewater Wind
  • OwnEnergy
  • Pattern Energy
  • RES Americas
  • Third Planet Windpower
  • TransCanada
  • Veolia (Ridgeline Energy)
  • Wind Capital Group

第9章 米国の風力発電所有者上位20社

  • AES Wind Generation
  • BP
  • Duke Energy
  • E.ON Climate & Renewables
  • EDF-EN enXco
  • Edison Mission Group
  • EDP Horizon Wind Energy
  • Eurus Energy
  • Exelon
  • First Wind
  • Iberdrola Renewables
  • Infigen Energy
  • Invenergy
  • MidAmerican Energy Holdings
  • NextEra Energy Resources
  • Noble Environmental Power
  • NRG Energy
  • Portland General Electric
  • Puget Sound Energy
  • Terra-Gen Power

V. 風力発電タービンの競争状況

第1章 風力タービン市場・技術動向

  • 風力タービンの市場分析と予測:市場規模と技術

第2章 風力タービンの価格動向

  • タービンの価格は低レベルに留まる

第3章 風力タービンOEM生産企業の競争分析

  • 市場シェアの変遷
  • 発注履歴・顧客分析
  • 製品分析
  • 国内生産

第4章 新規参入企業

  • 欧州企業の米国での操業開始
  • アジアの風力タービンOEM企業の進出

第5章 サプライチェーンの発展

  • 発電塔供給戦略
  • プロペラ供給戦略
  • ギアボックス

第6章 OEM生産企業の戦略

  • Acciona Windpower
  • Clipper Windpower
  • Fuhrlander AG
  • Gamesa Eolica
  • GE Energy
  • Mitsubishi Power Systems
  • Nordex AG
  • REpower Systems AG
  • Siemens Wind Power
  • Suzlon
  • Vestas Wind Systems
  • Component Suppliers/Smaller OEMs

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目次

The US wind market faces a continued period of stagnation as a result of low natural gas prices, transmission constraints, and federal policy uncertainty. US wind installations dropped 50% in 2010 versus 2009, representing the greatest drop in year over year installations since 2004. Over the next four years, US wind markets are expected to average just over 6 GW per year.

How will your company remain competitive in demand-constrained US wind markets? How can you adapt your strategy to be successful?

IHS Emerging Energy Research has been analyzing US wind markets for over seven years. Our new US wind market study provides thorough, objective analysis of US wind energy market challenges, prospects, and competitive activities across the region.

Key trends addressed in this new study include the following:

  • Developers adjust build plans and expectations: Developers and independent power producers (IPPs) are finding themselves in PPA bidding wars, yielding rock bottom prices. Given the continuation of the challenging PPA market, major wind IPPs will become even more cautious with their 2011 build plans.
  • Suppliers race to reduce costs and keep prices low, while pushing efficiency: Siemens' turbine order book led all OEMs in 2010, with Vestas and GE leading right behind. With supply outstripping demand, developers and utilities continue to issue competitive solicitations for turbine supply.
  • IPPs are well-positioned: IPPs are taking advantage of their pipeline flexibility, high-volume leverage in turbine supply contracts, and lower-cost O&M. Geographically diverse pipelines give IPPs the flexibility to shift toward new demand centers such as California and the Northeast.
  • Investors identify new opportunities and acquisitions: The stagnant US wind market provides significant investment opportunity: M&A activity in US wind is set to increase, highlighted by recent purchases from Enbridge, Brookfield Power, and NextEra.
  • Utilities increase appetite for wind ownership: Led by MidAmerican's aggressive installation plans, utilityowned wind additions are set to increase. Oklahoma Gas & Electric, Wisconsin Electric Power Service, and Basin Electric Power are among those utilities expected to add 100-plus megawatts in 2011.

Exhibit: Installed Project Cost by US Wind Developer

Installed Cost ($/kW)

Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

US Wind Market Forecasts Through 2025

  • US Wind Onshore and Offshore Capacity Forecasts Through 2025
  • US Wind Market Growth by State and by Region

Strategy Profiles of Key US Wind Market Players

  • Top 20 US Wind Ownership Rankings
  • Company Profiles of Developers, Independent Power Producers (IPPs), and Utilities Competing in US Wind Markets
  • Strategies of Leading Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and Component Suppliers

Competitive Analysis of Wind Project Development and Ownership

  • US Wind Project Development Hurdles
  • Opportunities for Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
  • Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Competition

Competitive Analysis of US Wind Turbine Markets

  • Trends in US Wind Turbine Markets, Technology, and Pricing
  • Order Book and Customer Analysis
  • New Entrant Strategies

US Wind Market Landscape

  • US Wind Transmission Outlook
  • Wind vs. Cost of Energy in the US
  • Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) Snapshots
  • Federal and State Policy Drivers

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. US WIND POWER DEMAND DRIVERS AND INHIBITORS

1. Federal and State Policy Drivers

  • Renewable Portfolio Standards
    • RPS Policies Confront Legislative Challenges
    • Struggle and Cost to Comply Brings RPS Changes and Uncertainty
    • Federal Government Fails to Unite on National RPS
  • GHG Policy Developments
    • EPA Slowly Pushes Targeted GHG Regulations Forward
    • EPA Regulation Prompts Opposition State, Regional GHG Initiatives Move Forward Despite Challenges

2. Wind Energy Incentive Mechanisms

  • Federal Tax Credits and the Treasury
    • Grant Option
      • Historic Development Mirrors Incentive Lifecycle
    • ARRA Brings Short-Term Consistency to US Incentives
    • Treasury Grant Popular in Difficult Development Environment
  • Other Federal Incentives for Wind Power
    • Manufacturing Tax Credits Expands Wind's US Footprint
    • ARRA Accelerates Loan Guarantee Awards
  • State Incentives
    • State Budget Woes Cause Review of Incentive Policies
    • States Vying for First-Mover Position to Attract Offshore Industry

3. Wind Energy in the Broader Power Generation Mix

  • Obstacles to Wind's Growth
    • Shale Gale Takes Wind Out of Industry's Sails
    • Transmission Constraints Pose Near- and Long-Term Challenge to Wind Development
    • FERC Pushes Regions to Lead on Transmission Policy and Planning
    • Transmission Debate Leads to Congressional Challenges of FERC Authority
    • Merchant Transmission Developers Working to Fill Wind's Transmission Gap
    • Studies on Wind Integration Levels Good News for Industry
  • Cost of Energy
    • Falling Cost, Improved Technology Boosts Wind's Attractiveness
    • Depressed Natural Gas Prices Hurt Wind's Near-Term Competitiveness
    • Wind's Unique Relationship with Natural Gas
    • Wind Increasingly Cost-Competitive with Conventional Power Under Carbon Regime
    • Wind Remains Most Cost-Competitive Renewable

4. Wind Resources

  • New Studies Show Increased Onshore Potential
  • Offshore Wind Potential Waiting to be Tapped

5. Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) Snapshots

  • MISO Market Overview
  • PJM Market Overview
  • SPP Market Overview
  • ISO-NE Market Overview
  • New York-ISO Market Overview
  • California-ISO Market Overview
  • Texas-ERCOT Market Overview

III. US WIND POWER MARKET FORECASTS

1. Methodology

2. US Wind Power Capacity Forecasts: Base- Case Scenario

  • Economic, Political, and Power Market Dynamics Impact Growth
    • US Easing Out of Recession in 2010, Market Poised to Improve
    • Transmission Bottlenecks Cause Drop in Mid-Term Build Levels
    • Additional Market Factors Influencing Base-Case Forecasts
    • Regional Breakdown of Future Wind Build
    • Initial Offshore Wind Boom Begins with Cape Wind

3. US Wind Power Capacity Forecasts: High-Growth vs. Low-Growth

  • IHS EER US Wind Forecast Assumptions: High-Growth Scenario
  • IHS EER US Wind Forecast Assumptions: Low-Growth Scenario

IV. COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES IN US WIND DEVELOPMENT

1. Overview of US Wind Project Ownership and Market Share

  • Growing Divergence Between Leading IPPs and Developers in Market Competitiveness
  • Utility Wind Ownership Maintains Upward Trajectory
    • Utilities Leveraging Competitive Tenders to Maximize Value of Wind Ownership
    • Utilities Integrate Further in Wind to Drive Down Costs for Rate Payers

2. Wind Project Development Hurdles

  • Fast-Track Program for Federal Lands Fails to Drive Development
  • Wildlife Impacts Key Barrier to Unlocking New Development
  • US Offshore Enters New Era of Challenges

3. Transmission Outlook for Wind Power Development

  • Lack of Transmission Access Pushes Development into New Markets

4. Competition to Secure Wind PPAs

  • RPS Demand Key Driver of Market Attractiveness
  • Wind PPA Prices Driven to New Lows in 2010
  • Regional Disparities in Offtake Prices Shift Developer Focus
  • Major Players Realign Pipelines and Development Expectations

5. Trends in Wind M&A Activity

  • Uptick in M&A Activity Catalyst for Industry Consolidation
  • Non-Core Companies Exit the Industry
  • New Entrants Emerge From Canada and Europe

6. US Wind Financing Strategies

  • Innovative Leasing Strategies Emerge in 2010
  • Utilities Step in to Fill Gap in Financing

7. US Offshore Wind Project Development Activity

  • Industry Makes Progress on Permitting Front
  • Offtake Challenges Pose Major Risk for Offshore Pipeline

8. US Wind Company Profiles

  • Brookfield Renewable Power
  • Caithness Energy
  • Cannon Power Group
  • Cape Wind
  • Cielo Wind Power
  • Deepwater Wind
  • Element Power
  • Enbridge
  • EverPower
  • Heritage Sustainable Energy
  • Juhl Wind
  • juwi
  • Kansas City Power & Light
  • Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
  • Midwest Wind Energy
  • Minnesota Power
  • National Wind
  • NRG Bluewater Wind
  • OwnEnergy
  • Pattern Energy
  • RES Americas
  • Third Planet Windpower
  • TransCanada
  • Veolia (Ridgeline Energy)
  • Wind Capital Group

9. Top 20 US Wind Power Owners

  • AES Wind Generation
  • BP
  • Duke Energy
  • E.ON Climate & Renewables
  • EDF-EN enXco
  • Edison Mission Group
  • EDP Horizon Wind Energy
  • Eurus Energy
  • Exelon
  • First Wind
  • Iberdrola Renewables
  • Infigen Energy
  • Invenergy
  • MidAmerican Energy Holdings
  • NextEra Energy Resources
  • Noble Environmental Power
  • NRG Energy
  • Portland General Electric
  • Puget Sound Energy
  • Terra-Gen Power

V. COMPETITIVE TRENDS IN US WIND TURBINE SUPPLY

1. Trends in Wind Turbine Market and Technology

  • Trends and Forecasts in Wind Turbine Size and Technology
    • OEMs Look Beyond 2 MW Turbine Offerings
    • Focus on Performance in Low-Wind-Speed Markets
    • Direct-Drive Technology Enters the US

2. Trends in Wind Turbine Pricing

  • Turbine Prices Hover at Low Levels

3. Wind Turbine OEM Competitive Analysis

  • Market Share Evolution
  • Order Book and Customer Analysis
    • Siemens Shows Resilience While GE Falters
    • Large Group of OEMs Lack Customer Base Needed to Sustain Business Over the Long Term
    • New Entrants' Largest Hurdle is Obtaining New Customers
  • Product Analysis
    • Technology Becomes Key Market
    • Differentiator Among Established Players
    • SIemens and Large Industrials Increasingly Differentiate on the Technology Front
    • Handful of New Entrants Attempt to Gain Market Presence Through Technology
  • Domestic Manufacturing
    • Siemens, Vestas, and Mitsubishi Solidify Presence
    • Alstom, DeWind, and Northern Power Systems Work to Establish Presence

4. New Entrants

  • European Vendors Begin US Operations
  • Asian Wind Turbine OEMs Launch Foray into US Market

5. Supply Chain Development

  • Tower Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  • Blade Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  • Gearbox in US Wind Turbine Market

6. OEM Strategies

  • Acciona Windpower
  • Clipper Windpower
  • Fuhrlander AG
  • Gamesa Eolica
  • GE Energy
  • Mitsubishi Power Systems
  • Nordex AG
  • REpower Systems AG
  • Siemens Wind Power
  • Suzlon
  • Vestas Wind Systems
  • Component Suppliers/Smaller OEMs
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