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米国のRPS(再生可能エネルギー利用割合基準)市場およびユーティリティ戦略:2010〜2025年

US RPS MARKETS AND UTILITY STRATEGIES: 2010 - 2025

発行 IHS Emerging Energy Research 商品コード 119788
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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米国のRPS(再生可能エネルギー利用割合基準)市場およびユーティリティ戦略:2010〜2025年 US RPS MARKETS AND UTILITY STRATEGIES: 2010 - 2025
出版日: 2010年05月26日 ページ情報: 英文

当商品の販売は、2016年07月01日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

既存の国の目標を満たすために、今後10年で120GWを超える新たな再生可能エネルギーが必要であり、2025年にかけてRPS(再生可能エネルギー利用割合基準)が促進されています。

当レポートでは、RPS市場の地域別分析、適合性予測と技術評価、米国ユーティリティの位置づけと適合戦略などについてまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けします。

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 米国のRPSの需要と供給

  • 米国の制裁可能エネルギー拡大の促進因子としてのRPS政策
  • 国のRPSの影響
  • 米国のRPSデザイン比較

第3章 地域別RPS市場分析

  • RTO/ISO比較
  • カリフォルニアの需要と供給
  • ニューヨークのISOの需要と供給
  • ISO:ニューイングランドの需要と供給
  • PJMの需要と供給
  • MISOの需要と供給
  • WECCの需要と供給
  • SPPの需要と供給

第4章 2025年までのRPS適合性予測シナリオ

  • 予測方法とシナリオ概要
  • 州の適合性シナリオ
  • 国の適合性シナリオ

第5章 米国ユーティリティの位置づけと適合戦略

  • RPS適合に対するユーティリティの位置づけ
  • ユーティリティの再生可能エネルギー適合戦略

第6章 ユーティリティ戦略プロファイル

目次

Abstract

There is no question that state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have been a major driver of renewable build - out in the US - - of the 30 GW of non - hydro renewable capacity added since 2004 90% has been built in states with an established, legally binding RPS. But what lies ahead? The renewables market of the next few years is not going to look like those of years past - - in the near to medium term the timing and location of project activity will be increasingly crucial for building successful renewables strategies, both on the development and the procurement sides.

A new, comprehensive study from IHS Emerging Energy Research is your guide for understanding and leveraging the complicated regulatory, technical, and cost environment for the US renewable market. US RPS Markets and Utility Strategies: 2010 - 2025, evaluates the impact of existing state and potential federal RPS on current and future renewable energy development and ownership, assessing evolving utility strategies for compliance, and measuring the key challenges to meeting RPS targets. EER' s proprietary landmark study is your source for renewable market insight:

A baseline of renewable power markets in the US. To meet existing state goals, over 120 GW of new renewables will be required during the next decade - - over 50% of all power generation added between 2010 and 2020. Yet a development surge in recent years, due to a strong PPA price environment supported by high and rising fossil fuel & power prices, has more than fulfilled nearterm RPS targets and slowed the PPA market in a number of key regions. EER' s study tracks which markets are still growing, which are poised for export, and what are the impediments to growth.

A must - have roadmap to RPS demand through 2025 by ISO and by state. Banking of RECs will not only have a significant effect on the timing of demand for new development/PPAs, but will also make RPS - based demand less transparent and harder to gauge. Properly paced development through the decade will be critical - a market slowed too much by reluctance to sign PPAs in the near - term could get whipsawn by the accelerating demand in the latter half of the decade.

A playbook to build or benchmark your strategy. Spurred by RPS compliance obligations, US utilities are accelerating a variety of renewables procurement and deployment strategies, shaped by risk appetite, geography, level of compliance requirements, and local regulatory environment. Among the largest 50 utilities in the US with RPS compliance obligations, more than half have plans to develop or acquire renewable power capacity over the next five years.

Scenario analysis to map the potential of a federal RPS. A national RPS, moreover, would drive significantly more investment and impact supply - demand balances by ISO. In anticipation of a federal RPS, states including Oklahoma and Indiana are attracting renewables growth. A federal RPS could boost renewables demand by 70% across the US relative to existing state policies.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. US RPS SUPPLY AND DEMAND

  • 1. US State RPS Policy as a Driver for Renewables Growth
    • Historical RPS Evolution and Near - Term Outlook
      • Recent Historical Evolution of State RPS Policies
      • Low Natural Gas Pricing, Weak Power Demand Shifts RPS Dynamic
    • Cross Comparison of State RPS Demand
      • 2010 - 2015 to Mark Major Step toward Increased Demand Pressure
      • Non - Hydro Renewables Penetration Set to Increase
    • RPS Demand in the Context of US Power Generation Needs
      • Meeting Renewables Targets to Accelerate Ongoing US Capacity Shift
      • State RPS Initiatives Complemented by Federal Level Renewable Subsidies
  • 2. Implications of a National RPS
    • National RPS Momentum Diverges from Stalled Carbon Legislation
    • Waxman Markey Sets Standard for National RPS
  • 3. US State RPS Design Comparison
    • RECs as a Compliance Mechanism
    • RPS Carve - Outs
    • RPS Enforceability and Alternative Compliance Payments (ACPs)
    • Energy Efficiency a Growing Consideration in RPS Planning

III. REGIONAL RPS MARKET ANALYSIS

  • 1. RTO / ISO Cross Comparison
    • Short and Long RTOs / ISOs
    • Timing of Regional RPS Demand
    • RTO / ISO Renewables Demand Compared with Development Potential
    • Transmission, Renewables Development and REC Trading Flows
  • 2. California Supply and Demand
    • CAISO Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • California T - REC Market
    • California Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 3. New York ISO Supply and Demand
    • NYISO Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • NYISO REC Market
    • NYISO Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 4. ISO - New England Supply & Demand
    • ISO - NE Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • ISO - NE REC Market
    • ISO - NE Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 5. PJM Supply & Demand
    • PJM Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • PJM REC Market
    • PJM Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 6. MISO Supply & Demand
    • MISO Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • MISO REC Market
    • MISO Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 7. WECC Supply & Demand
    • WECC Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • WECC REC Market
    • WECC Utility Comparison and Positioning
  • 8. SPP Supply & Demand
    • SPP Renewables Development Environment and Interconnect Queue
    • SPP REC Market & Utility Positioning

IV. RPS COMPLIANCE FORECAST SCENARIOS THROUGH 2025

  • 1. Forecast Methodology and Scenario Overview
  • 2. State Compliance Scenario
    • Regional Outlook
    • Technology Mix Evolution
    • REC Pricing and Guidance
  • 3. Federal RPS Scenario
    • Regional Outlook
    • Technology Mix Evolution
    • REC Pricing and Guidance

V. US UTILITY POSITIONING AND COMPLIANCE STRATEGIES

  • 1. Positioning of Utilities Toward RPS Compliance
  • 2. Utility Renewable Compliance Strategies
    • Utility Ownership Strategies
      • Financing Environment, Project Economics Draw Utilities into Asset Ownership
      • Utilities Step - Up Renewables Development Role to Leverage Partnerships
      • California IOUs Move into Development and Ownership to Manage RPS Compliance Risk
      • Utilities Leveraging Sister IPPs to Move along the Renewables Learning Curve
      • Compliance Obligations Push Utilities to Advance Novel Technologies
    • Renewable PPA Strategies
    • Utility Renewable Supply Rankings PPA Terms Shorten, Become More Competitive
      • Renewable PPA Pipeline Exceeds Near Term Demand
      • PPA Project Size Varies By Utility
      • Renewable RFPs as a Compliance Tool
      • REC Procurement Strategies
    • Distributed Ownership Strategies Evolve
      • Distributed Project Ownership
      • PV, Distributed Generation Strategies Broaden REC Off - Take Potential

VI. UTILITY STRATEGY PROFILES

  • AEP
  • Alliant
  • Allete
  • Ameren
  • Austin Energy
  • CMS Energy Corporation
  • Con Edison
  • Constellation Energy
  • CPS Energy
  • Dominion
  • DTE Energy
  • Duke Energy
  • Exelon Corporation
  • First Energy
  • NextEra Energy Resources
  • Great Plains (KCP&L)
  • Hawaiian Electric (HECO)
  • Jacksonville Electric Authority (JEA)
  • Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP)
  • LIPA
  • MidAmerican
  • National Grid
  • NSTAR
  • Northeast Utilities
  • NV Energy
  • Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E)
  • PEPCO Holdings (Delmarva)
  • Pinnacle West (APS)
  • PPL Electric
  • Portland General Electric (PGE)
  • Public Service of New Mexico (PNM)
  • Progress Energy
  • Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PSEG)
  • Puget Sound Energy Inc.
  • Salt River Project (SRP)
  • Sempra (SDG&E)
  • Southern California Edison (SCE)
  • Tucson Electric Power
  • UIL Holdings
  • We Energies
  • Westar
  • Xcel Energy
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