Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-31-2
Douglas-Westwood's (DW) NEW publication the Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast provides detailed analysis of key markets within Iran's oil & gas sector, including historical and forecast drilling and production, oilfield services expenditure, and onshore and offshore rig demand. Highlights from the new edition of the report, which covers the 2016-2020 period, include a forecast 12% compound annual growth (CAGR) in onshore oilfield services expenditure (to reach $2.23bn in 2020), a 6% CAGR in the active onshore rig fleet and a 5% CAGR in gas processing Capex (forecast to reach $7.4bn in 2020). The macro-economic commentary within the Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast report has been updated to reflect the current climate with regard to sanctions - including an overview of the sanctions that have been lifted and those that remain in place following Implementation Day. Subsequently, the macro-economic commentary within the report also focuses on the key barriers to entry for investors.
Despite these remaining barriers to entry, the lifting of the international nuclear-related sanctions poses significant upside potential for Iran's oil & gas production -the country has set ambitious targets for increasing its output in the coming years. The Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast includes historical and forecast onshore and offshore oil & gas production over 2006-2022, in addition to onshore and offshore oil & gas development wells drilled. This analysis, updated for the new edition of the report, is based on a thorough project-by-project review of upcoming field developments and a conservative assessment of the timing of activity. The report contains a detailed overview of the key onshore and offshore E&P operators, as well as key planned or ongoing projects.
An anticipated rise in drilling activity will lead to increased demand for both onshore and offshore rigs. The Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast contains a detailed overview of historical and forecast rig demand over 2011-2020, as well as the current identified fleet and competitive landscape. Drilling activity has positively impacted the oilfield services market and the Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast provides historical and forecast oilfield services expenditure for 20 oilfield service lines in Iran, including rig & crew, cementing, and fishing.
In its analysis of key production infrastructure, the report includes coverage of the fixed platforms market, including historical and forecast installations, as well as historical and forecast capital expenditure over 2011-2020. Analysis of the onshore pipelines market includes an overview of the installed length and product type of identified pipelines in Iran over 2011-2020, as well as historical and forecast capital expenditure and kilometres installed for the Middle East.
The report also provides coverage of fixed platforms, onshore pipelines and key downstream facilities, including refineries, gas processing facilities and petrochemical facilities, as well as the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. DW's market analysis for refineries, gas processing, and petrochemicals includes historical and forecast cumulative capacity, as well as maintenance expenditure, over 2011-2020. For refineries and gas processing, the report also includes historical and forecast capital expenditure segmented by equipment type.
The Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast contains:
- Introduction to Iran and macro-economic overview - The report contains detailed information on Iran's oil & gas sector, including analysis of the impact of the international sanctions and an overview of the post-Implementation Day sanctions environment. The report also contains detailed commentary on Iran's current hydrocarbons policy. Additional information is provided on oil & gas prices and breakeven prices for Iran compared to the rest of MENA.
- Coverage of a range of markets - Coverage of a range of markets - The report provides in-depth coverage of key markets within Iran's oil & gas sector, including oilfield services, onshore and offshore rigs, fixed platforms, onshore pipelines, and downstream facilities (refineries, gas processing, petrochemicals and LNG).
- Detailed analysis - Analysis of key markets included in the report is based on data generated in-house using models exclusive to DW, including DW's own D&P models for production and wells drilled. The report also utilises a multitude of data sources, including DW's upstream & midstream construction and rig fleet data, drawing on a range of established DW reports and insight, including the World Drilling & Production Forecast, the World Onshore Pipelines Market Forecast, and the World Oilfield Services Market Forecast.
- Focus on key projects - The report provides a detailed overview of key onshore and offshore oil & gas projects which are expected to drive growth in the rig and oilfield services markets, as well as onshore pipelines projects planned or under construction.
- Expenditure forecasts- The report contains forecasts for onshore rig upgrade and newbuild expenditure, onshore and offshore oilfield services expenditure, fixed platforms capital expenditure, maintenance expenditure for refineries, gas processing and petrochemical facilities, and capital expenditure for refineries and gas processing facilities.
Why purchase the Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast?
The potential uplift in Iran oil & gas activity is viewed as a major opportunity for the international operator and service sector. This new study from Douglas-Westwood brings together a full appraisal of the ‘size of the prize' in key identified sectors, upstream, midstream and downstream.
DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms. DW is renowned for its work in difficult to access geographies and markets including the Middle East and onshore & offshore oilfield services and equipment.
The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, engineering contractors, oilfield services providers, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, and government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Unique and proprietary data - Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Proven market-modelling - The report draws from DW's suite of market models that have been developed and tried and tested throughout our 25 years of business.
- Concise report layout - Consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents
1. Summary & Conclusions
2. Introduction to Iran & Macroeconomic Overview
- Iran: Historical Production & Exports
- Iran's Economic Sanctions: Details of the Sanctions
- Iran's Economic Sanctions: Impact on the Iranian Economy
- Iran's Economic Sanctions: Outlook Post-2015
- Oil Price Volatility
- Natural Gas
- Iran vs. Rest of MENA: Breakeven Prices
- Iran's Current Hydrocarbons Policy
- Drilling & Production Methodology
- Onshore Rig Demand Methodology
- Offshore Rig Demand Methodology
- Oilfield Services Methodology
- Onshore Pipelines Methodology
- Onshore Rigs, Fixed Platforms and Downstream Expenditure Methodology
- Downstream Methodology
4. Drilling & Production
- Summary of Key Projects
- Onshore Drilling & Production Overview
- Key Onshore E&P Operators
- Key Onshore Projects
- Key Onshore Projects
- Offshore Drilling & Production Overview
- Key Offshore E&P Operators
- South Pars Gas & Condensate Development Project
- Key Offshore Projects
- Further Projects & Upside Potential
5. Onshore Rig & Oilfield Services
- Onshore Rig Market Forecast
- Identified Onshore Rig Fleet: Competitive Landscape
- Onshore Rig Market: Upgrade & Newbuild Capital Expenditure
- Onshore Oilfield Services Expenditure
6. Offshore Rig & Oilfield Services
- Offshore Rig Market Forecast
- Identified Offshore Rig Fleet: Competitive Landscape
- Offshore Oilfield Services Expenditure
7. Onshore & Offshore Infrastructure
- Fixed Platforms Market
- Onshore Pipelines Market
- Key Pipeline Projects
8. Downstream Facilities
- Refinery Capital & Maintenance Expenditure
- Gas Processing Capital & Maintenance Expenditure
- Petrochemicals Maintenance Market
- Liquefied Natural Gas Market
- Project Listings: Onshore
- Project Listings: Offshore
- Project Listings: Fixed Platforms
- Project Listings: Downstream
- Drilling & Production Barriers and Limitations
- Onshore Rig Data, Analysis & Assumptions
- Oilfield Service Line Cost Inclusions
- Oilfield Services Barriers and Limitations
- Data and Text Conventions
- Figure 1: Iran Total Hydrocarbons Production
- Figure 2: Iran Historical Oil & Gas Production & Exports 1980-2014
- Figure 3: Iran GDP per Capita and Unemployment Rate
- Figure 4: Iran Imports, Exports (Year-on-Year % Changes) and Inflation Rate
- Figure 5: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010-July 2015
- Figure 6: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
- Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020
- Figure 8: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
- Figure 9: MENA Oil Exporters' Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price
- Figure 10: MENA Oil Exporters' External Breakeven Oil Price
- Figure 11: Iran Onshore Production
- Figure 12: Iran Onshore Development Wells Drilled
- Figure 13: Iran Offshore Production
- Figure 14: Iran Offshore Development Wells Drilled
- Figure 15: Iran Rig Fleet and Implied Utilisation
- Figure 16: Iran Identified Drilling Fleet HP
- Figure 18: Iran Onshore Rig Upgrade & Newbuild Expenditure
- Figure 17: Iran Onshore Rig Upgrade and Newbuild Expenditure by HP Category 2016
- Figure 19: Iran Onshore Oilfield Services Expenditure Breakdown, 2011-2020
- Figure 20: Iran Contracted Offshore Rigs
- Figure 21: Iran Offshore Rig Dayrates and Utilisation 2010-2015
- Figure 22: Iran Offshore Oilfield Services Expenditure Breakdown, 2010-2020
- Figure 23: Iran Fixed Platform Installations
- Figure 24: Iran Fixed Platforms Market Capital Expenditure
- Figure 25: Total Onshore Middle East Pipeline Capex and Km Installed 2011-2020
- Figure 26: Identified Pipeline Projects Split by Product Type in Iran 2011-2020
- Figure 27: Identified Pipeline Projects Split by Diameter Size in Iran 2011-2020
- Figure 28: Percentage of Onshore Km Installed in Iran versus Rest of Middle East
- Figure 29: Iran Refinery Maintenance Expenditure and Cumulative Capacity
- Figure 30: Iran Refinery Capital Expenditure
- Figure 31: Iran Gas Processing Maintenance Expenditure and Cumulative Capacity
- Figure 32: Iran Gas Processing Capital Expenditure
- Figure 33: Iran Petrochemicals Maintenance Expenditure
- Figure 34: Iran Gas Processing Cumulative Capacity
- Table 1: Comparison of Iran's Hydrocarbon Contract Systems
- Table 2: Iran Rig Fleet and Implied Utilisation
- Table 3: Iran Identified Rig Fleet
- Table 4: Iran Onshore Oilfield Services Expenditure Breakdown, 2015-2019
- Table 5: Iran Current Identified Offshore Rig Fleet
- Table 6: Iran Offshore Oilfield Services Expenditure Breakdown, 2015-2019
- Table 7: Identified Iranian LNG Projects
- Table 8: Iran Onshore Projects
- Table 9: Iran Offshore Projects
- Table 10: Iran Fixed Platforms
- Table 12: Iran Refinaries
- Table 11: Iran Gas Processing Facilities
- Table 14: Iran Petrochemicals Facilities
- Table 13: Iran LNG Projects