株式会社グローバルインフォメーション
TEL: 044-952-0102
表紙
市場調査レポート

世界における石油・ガス掘削および生産市場の予測

World Drilling and Production Market Forecast 2019-2025 Q1

発行 Douglas-Westwood 商品コード 296687
出版日 ページ情報 英文 105 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1GBP=149.47円で換算しております。

ご注意: DRM (デジタル著作権管理システム) 付PDFになります。制限内容はお問合せください。
Hard Copyにつきましては、航空便送料80ドルが別途かかります。

Back to Top
世界における石油・ガス掘削および生産市場の予測 World Drilling and Production Market Forecast 2019-2025 Q1
出版日: 2019年02月05日 ページ情報: 英文 105 Pages
概要

当レポートは、世界各地域の主要国の陸上および洋上における石油やガスの掘削と生産活動に焦点を絞り込み、過去、現在、未来の動き、各国の詳細な状況や世界市場全体の動きを明らかにするとともに、将来の予測を示したもので、四半期ごとに更新される年間契約型情報サービスのオプションも用意しております。

第1章 世界における掘削と生産

  • 世界における生産と掘削
  • 陸上での生産と掘削
  • 陸上での生産と掘削
  • 洋上での生産と掘削:浅海
  • 洋上での生産と掘削:深海

第2章 アフリカ

  • アフリカの概況
  • アルジェリア
  • アンゴラ
  • チャド
  • エジプト
  • 赤道ギニア
  • ガボン
  • ガーナ
  • リビア
  • モーリタニア
  • モザンビーク
  • ナイジェリア
  • コンゴ共和国
  • スーダン・南スーダン
  • タンザニア
  • ウガンダ

第3章 アジア

  • アジアの概況
  • バングラデシュ
  • ブルネイ
  • カンボジア
  • 中国
  • インド
  • インドネシア
  • マレーシア
  • ミャンマー
  • パキスタン
  • タイ
  • ベトナム

第4章 オーストラレーシア

  • オーストラレーシアの概況
  • オーストラリア
  • ニュージーランド
  • パプアニューギニア

第5章 東欧と旧ソ連諸国

  • 東欧と旧ソ連諸国の概況
  • アゼルバイジャン
  • カザフスタン
  • ポーランド
  • ルーマニア
  • ロシア
  • トルクメニスタン
  • ウクライナ
  • ウズベキスタン

第6章 ラテンアメリカ

  • ラテンアメリカの概況
  • アルゼンチン
  • ボリビア
  • ブラジル
  • コロンビア
  • エクアドル
  • フォークランド諸島
  • ガイアナ
  • メキシコ
  • ペルー
  • トリニダード・トバゴ
  • ベネズエラ

第7章 中東

  • 中東の概況
  • バーレーン
  • イラン
  • イラク
  • イスラエル
  • クウェート
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • シリア
  • トルコ
  • アラブ首長国連邦 (UAE)
  • イエメン

第8章 北米

  • 北米の概況
  • カナダ
  • 米国

第9章 西欧

  • 西欧の概況
  • アルバニア
  • デンマーク
  • ドイツ
  • アイルランド
  • イタリア
  • オランダ
  • ノルウェー
  • 英国

第10章 付録

目次
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-78-7

Based on detailed models, the report examines each country in turn and includes a summary of hydrocarbon potential and sensitised production outlook, with associated development drilling requirements segmented into oil & gas for the onshore sector and shallow vs. deep water depths for the offshore sector. Country-by-country exploration and appraisal (E&A) drilling forecasts for both the onshore and offshore sectors are also detailed.

US Production Shows no Signs of Slowing Down as OPEC moves to Support Prices

OPEC have moved to take supply out of the market but the key question at the start of 2019 is - have they done enough? Expectations for oil demand growth are weak as economic growth slows in China and the US. Meanwhile, US production growth continues and is near breaking through the 12 mmbbl/d of crude oil mark, compared to just 5 mmbbl/d in 2008, and long lead-time developments in deepwater continue to come online. The dynamics on the supply and demand side point to some uncertainty for 2019, and potentially downside risk to oil price in the near-term. In the longer term, however, the issues of low project sanctioning and reserve-replacement will have to be addressed at some point to avoid a supply crunch.

Key Conclusions Include:

  • The Middle East and North America will continue to produce liquids at record levels, leading to 99.4 mmbbl/d of supply in 2025, 8% higher than 2018.
  • Driven by US onshore, global drilling activity will experience considerable growth, with over 378,000 onshore development wells to be drilled globally over the forecast period.
  • Crude oil production in the US is now close to surpassing 12 mmbbl/d compared to just 5 mmbbl/d in 2008.
  • Total US liquids (including NGLs and condensates) production averaged 14.4 mmbbl/d in 2018 and will continue to increase, averaging 15.5 mmbbl/d through 2019.
  • Deepwater activity remains a bright spot over the forecast, with production being 49% higher in 2025 than 2018. More than 1,200 wells will be drilled to achieve this.
  • Brazil will continue to dominate deepwater production, accounting for 41% of global deepwater oil production over 2019-2025.
  • OPEC and OPEC+ announced a 1.2 mmbbl/d production cut from October 2018 reference levels, though Westwood estimates they will fall short of this total by over 200 kbbl/d.

Year-on-year Change in Global Oil Production by Region 2016-2025

The key story of the last quarter has been on the demand side, with several forecasters lowering their demand expectations due to a slowdown in the global economy. While OPEC's decision to continue it's production cut may help offset the production gains made by the US, the weaker demand outlook, high levels of oil stocks and large additions from countries outside of OPEC mean that oil prices are expected to be turbulent.

On the supply side, US liquids production (including NGLs and condensates) has continued at record levels, with 2018 production averaging 14.4 mmbbl/d - 1.5 mmbbl/d higher than 2017. In 2019, some 1.1 mmbbl/d is expected to be added, boosted by continued high levels of drilling and completion onshore. Looking further ahead, growth in the US is unlikely to slow in the near term, as new pipelines come online in Texas, reducing bottlenecks and allowing for an acceleration in completions in the Permian basin.

In response to the extent of US onshore production growth and the sharp decline in oil prices during Q4 2018, OPEC announced a time extension to it's production cuts (which were previously set to end in December 2018). Excluding those with exemptions, OPEC member states are aiming to reduce production by a combined 800 kbbl/d compared to October 2018 levels. In addition, OPEC+ would cut a further 400 kbbl/d. Based on compliance levels in 2018, Westwood expects OPEC and OPEC+ countries to cut output by only 949 kbbl/d.

In contrast to the production growth in the USA, there are several key producing countries facing major production challenges. Venezuela remains in disarray and is expected to continue to see production decline with crude output of 1.1 mmbbl/d in December 2018, compared to 2.6 mmbbl/d in January 2016. Mexico has seen large declines in recent years and the election of a government that has stopped foreign oil auctions for the next three years is a sign that things may not improve quickly. Furthermore, regional conflict continues to weigh on production, with ongoing disruption in countries such as Syria and Yemen wiping out substantial supply. Similarly, Libya continues to suffer from outages and a lack of stability.

With respect to Iran - waivers given last November to eight countries to continue importing Iranian crude for six months are unlikely to be renewed when they expire. Iranian production has already dropped substantially, with Q4 2018 production averaging 0.7 mmbbl/d lower than Q1 2018. A tightening of US sanctions presents a real downside risk for the country in 2019.

While in the short-term, oversupply is the market's key issue, the longer-term picture tells a different story. Based on a consensus of continued demand growth in the latter years of the forecast, long-term production additions look set to be insufficient to meet rising demand, leading to a potential undersupply for much of the early 2020's (based on currently visible projects and reserves). However, this outlook assumes the continuation of outages and economic/political issues for a number of oil producing nations. Any resolution to these issues, as well as any game-changing technological innovation, not to mention any substantial rally in oil prices, will cause the market to come back into balance. However, when and if this will come to fruition remains to be seen.

This report includes data and analysis for more than 70 of the most important energy producing countries (covering >99% of global hydrocarbon supply), including detailed drilling and production forecasts for each country covering the period 2019-2025.

Table of Contents

1. Global Drilling & Production

  • Key Themes
  • Global Production
  • Global Drilling & Production
  • Onshore Drilling & Production
  • Offshore Production and Drilling: Shallow Water
  • Offshore Production and Drilling: Deepwater

2. Africa

  • Africa
  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Chad
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Gabon
  • Ghana
  • Libya
  • Mauritania
  • Mozambique
  • Nigeria
  • Republic of Congo
  • Sudan and South Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda

3. Asia

  • Asia
  • Bangladesh
  • Brunei
  • Cambodia
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Pakistan
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

4. Australasia

  • Australasia
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • Papua New Guinea

5. Eastern Europe and FSU

  • Eastern Europe & FSU
  • Azerbaijan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Turkmenistan
  • Ukraine
  • Uzbekistan

6. Latin America

  • Latin America
  • Argentina
  • Bolivia
  • Brazil
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
  • Falkland Islands
  • Guyana
  • Mexico
  • Peru
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Venezuela

7. Middle East

  • Middle East
  • Bahrain
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Syria
  • Turkey
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Yemen

8. North America

  • North America
  • Canada
  • USA

9. Western Europe

  • Western Europe
  • Albania
  • Denmark
  • Germany
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • United Kingdom

10. Appendix

  • Methodology
  • Methodology - Radar Chart
  • Barriers and Limitations

Figures

  • Figure 1: Oil Supply Changes 2018-2020
  • Figure 2: Year-on-year growth for global oil and gas production
  • Figure 3: Oil production change by region
  • Figure 4: Global Hydrocarbon Production by Region
  • Figure 5: Global Development Wels Drilled by Region
  • Figure 6: Onshore Hydrocarbon Production by Region
  • Figure 7: Onshore Development Wells Drilled by Region
  • Figure 8: Shallow Water Hydrocarbon Production by Region
  • Figure 9: Shallow Water Development Wells Drilled by Region
  • Figure 10: Deepwater Hydrocarbon Production by Region
  • Figure 11: Deepwater Development Wells Drilled by Region
  • Figure 12: Algeria Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 13: Indicative Algeria Risk Profile
  • Figure 14: Angola Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 15: Angola Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 16: Indicative Angola Risk Profile
  • Figure 17: Chad Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 18: Indicative Chad Risk Profile
  • Figure 19: Egypt Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 20: Egypt Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 21: Indicative Egypt Risk Profile
  • Figure 22: Equatorial Guinea Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 23: Indicative Equitorial Guinea Risk Profile
  • Figure 24: Gabon Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 25: Gabon Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 26: Indicative Gabon Risk Profile
  • Figure 27: Ghana Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 28: Indicative Ghana Risk Profile
  • Figure 29: Libya Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 30: Libya Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 31: Indicative Libya Risk Profile
  • Figure 32: Mauritania Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 33: Indicative Mauritania Risk Profile
  • Figure 34: Mozambique Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 35: Mozambique Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 36: Indicative Mozambique Risk Profile
  • Figure 37: Nigeria Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 38: Nigeria Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 39: Indicative Nigeria Risk Profile
  • Figure 40: Republic of Congo Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 41: Republic of Congo Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 42: Indicative Republic of Congo Risk Profile
  • Figure 43: Sudan and South Sudan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 44: Indicative Sudan and South Sudan Risk Profile
  • Figure 45: Tanzania Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 46: Tanzania Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 47: Indicative Tanzania Risk Profile
  • Figure 48: Uganda Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 49: Indicative Uganda Risk Profile
  • Figure 50: Bangladesh Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 51: Indicative Bangladesh Risk Profile
  • Figure 52: Brunei Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 53: Brunei Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 54: Indicative Brunei Risk Profile
  • Figure 55: Cambodia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 56: Indicative Cambodia Risk Profile
  • Figure 57: China Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 58: China Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 59: Indicative China Risk Profile
  • Figure 60: India Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 61: India Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 62: Indicative India Risk Profile
  • Figure 63: Indonesia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 64: Indonesia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 65: Indicative Indonesia Risk Profile
  • Figure 66: Malaysia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 67: Indicative Malaysia Risk Profile
  • Figure 68: Myanmar Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 69: Myanmar Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 70: Indicative Myanmar Risk Profile
  • Figure 71: Pakistan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 72: Indicative Pakistan Risk Profile
  • Figure 73: Thailand Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 74: Thailand Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 75: Indicative Thailand Risk Profile
  • Figure 76: Vietnam Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 77: Indicative Vietnam Risk Profile
  • Figure 78: Australia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 79: Australia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 80: Indicative Australia Risk Profile
  • Figure 81: New Zealand Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 82: New Zealand Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 83: Indicative New Zealand Risk Profile
  • Figure 84: Papua New Guinea Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 85: Papua New Guinea Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 86: Indicative Papua New Guinea Risk Profile
  • Figure 87: Azerbaijan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 88: Azerbaijan Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 89: Indicative Azerbaijan Risk Profile
  • Figure 90: Kazakhstan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 91: Kazakhstan Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 92: Indicative Kazakhstan Risk Profile
  • Figure 93: Poland Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 94: Poland Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 95: Indicative Poland Risk Profile
  • Figure 96: Romania Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 97: Romania Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 98: Indicative Romania Risk Profile
  • Figure 99: Russia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 100: Russia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 101: Indicative Russia Risk Profile
  • Figure 102: Turkmenistan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 103: Turkmenistan Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 104: Indicative Turkmenistan Risk Profile
  • Figure 105: Ukraine Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 106: Indicative Ukraine Risk Profile
  • Figure 107: Uzbekistan Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 108: Indicative Uzbekistan Risk Profile
  • Figure 109: Argentina Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 110: Argentina Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 111: Indicative Argentina Risk Profile
  • Figure 112: Bolivia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 113: Indicative Bolivia Risk Profile
  • Figure 114: Brazil Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 115: Brazil Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 116: Indicative Brazil Risk Profile
  • Figure 117: Colombia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 118: Colombia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 119: Indicative Colombia Risk Profile
  • Figure 120: Ecuador Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 121: Ecuador Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 122: Indicative Ecuador Risk Profile
  • Figure 123: Falkland Islands Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 124: Guyana Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 125: Indicative Guyana Risk Profile
  • Figure 126: Mexico Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 127: Mexico Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 128: Indicative Mexico Risk Profile
  • Figure 129: Peru Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 130: Peru Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 131: Indicative Peru Risk Profile
  • Figure 132: Trinidad and Tobago Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 133: Trinidad and Tobago Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 134: Indicative Trinidad and Tobago Risk Profile
  • Figure 135: Venezuela Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 136: Venezuela Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 137: Indicative Venezuela Risk Profile
  • Figure 138: Bahrain Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 139: Indicative Bahrain Risk Profile
  • Figure 140: Iran Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 141: Iran Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 142: Indicative Iran Risk Profile
  • Figure 143: Iraq Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 144: Indicative Iraq Risk Profile
  • Figure 145: Israel Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 146: Israel Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 147: Indicative Israel Risk Profile
  • Figure 148: Kuwait Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 149: Kuwait Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 150: Indicative Kuwait Risk Profile
  • Figure 151: Oman Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 152: Oman Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 153: Indicative Oman Risk Profile
  • Figure 154: Qatar Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 155: Qatar Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 156: Indicative Qatar Risk Profile
  • Figure 157: Saudi Arabia Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 158: Saudi Arabia Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 159: Indicative Saudi Arabia Risk Profile
  • Figure 160: Syria Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 161: Indicative Syria Risk Profile
  • Figure 162: Turkey Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 163: Turkey Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 164: Indicative Turkey Risk Profile
  • Figure 165: United Arab Emirates Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 166: United Arab Emirates Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 167: Indicative United Arab Emirates Risk Profile
  • Figure 168: Yemen Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 169: Indicative Yemen Risk Profile
  • Figure 170: Canada Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 171: Canada Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 172: Indicative Canada Risk Profile
  • Figure 173: USA Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 174: USA Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 175: Indicative USA Risk Profile
  • Figure 176: Albania Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 177: Indicative Albania Risk Profile
  • Figure 178: Denmark Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 179: Indicative Denmark Risk Profile
  • Figure 180: Germany Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 181: Germany Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 182: Indicative Germany Risk Profile
  • Figure 183: Ireland Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 184: Indicative Ireland Risk Profile
  • Figure 185: Italy Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 186: Italy Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 187: Indicative Italy Risk Profile
  • Figure 188: Netherlands Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 189: Netherlands Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 190: Indicative Netherlands Risk Profile
  • Figure 191: Norway Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 192: Indicative Norway Risk Profile
  • Figure 193: United Kingdom Onshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 194: United Kingdom Offshore Wells Drilled and Production
  • Figure 195: Indicative United Kingdom Risk Profile
Back to Top