Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-28-2
Sustained Low Oil Price Sinks Deepwater Projects, with 2016-2020 Deepwater Spend to Total $137 Billion
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts deepw4ter expenditure to total $137 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2020. This represents a 35% decline compared to DW's previous edition of the deepwater forecast issued March 2015.
The prolonged low oil price has impacted the deepwater market, with operators considering alternative development options and delaying the sanctioning of new projects, whilst trying to protect returns on their existing investments in the sector. However, projects already under construction are unlikely to be affected. The largest proportion (38%) of the total spend will be attributed to drilling and completion. Subsea production equipment, SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers and flowlines), pipelines and trunklines will represent 34% of total expenditure combined; whilst floating production units will account for 28% of spend over the forecast period.
Expenditure will predominantly be driven by Africa and the Americas, which will account for a combined 87% of total deepwater Capex. Though all regions will be adversely affected by low oil prices, projects that were sanctioned before the oil price downturn will help sustain activity levels in these regions and in addition we expect to see the development of East African gas basins towards the end of the forecast period.
Record levels of backlog established over the 2011-2014 period have somewhat insulated subsea hardware manufacturers from the oil price downturn. However, DW expects a further decline in subsea hardware installations in 2017 and 2018 with backlog falling rapidly and new orders trickling in at very low levels. We expect that the subsea OEM's will feel the full impact of the downturn in 2016/2017 and will face strong competition for the lower volume of projects. In total, it is forecast that the number of deepwater wells to be drilled over the next five years will decline by 3% compared to the preceding five-year period.
From a supply-chain perspective, this point in the cycle is an opportunity to bring through new approaches and technology for deepwater developments to improve efficiency and lower cost. In the long run, we remain of the view that deepwater will be a cost competitive source of world-class hydrocarbon reserves.
DW's 14th edition of the World Deepwater Market Forecast covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in the deepwater sector:
- Key drivers - discussion of factors affecting deepwater activity, including: sustained low oil & gas prices; deepwater production to offset declining production from onshore and shallow water basins; E&P spend of international operators; and Petrobras' activity in Brazil.
- Supply chain - detailing the financing of deepwater developments and local content issues. Includes analysis of contracting strategies (e.g. frame agreements), the deepwater drilling rig fleet and day rates, key players and capabilities of each sector within the deepwater market (drilling, FPS and subsea hardware).
- Procurement - factors affecting the decisions facing FPS operators, whether to lease or own vessels and details of major leasing contractors.
- Regional forecasts - forecast Capex within each region, including examples of notable projects and operators within the region and countries with most activity.
- Component forecasts - drilling and completion (subsea and surface completed wells), subsea production hardware, SURF, pipelines and trunklines and floating production.
- List of deepwater prospects - includes information on all identified prospects coming onstream from 2016 to 2020 by operator, location, water depth, number of trees, status category and onstream year.
Why purchase the World Deepwater Market Forecast?
DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore construction companies, drilling operators, oilfield services companies, shipbuilders and oil & gas companies wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Detailed methodology - the report uses research from DW's ‘Deepwater Database' , an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of deepwater market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast.
- Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of deepwater expenditure.
- Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents
1. Summary and Conclusions
2. Drivers and Indicators
- E&P Trends - Spending Activity
- Viability of Oil & Gas Developments
- Continued Development of Offshore Reserves
- Offshore Oil & Gas
- Oil - Supply & Demand
- Oil Price Volatility
- Oil Price Impacts
- Natural Gas
- Oil & Gas Challenges
- Importance of Brazil to the Subsea Market
- Deepwater Focus Areas
3. Field Development
- Field Lifecycle
- Drilling and Completion
- Field Development Concept Selection
- Subsea Production Hardware
- SURF and Trunklines
- Floating Production Systems (FPS)
4. The Supply Chain
- Deepwater Supply Chain - Drilling and FPS
- Deepwater Supply Chain - Subsea Hardware
- Deepwater Drilling Fleet
- Rig Dayrate Analysis
- Subsea Tree Market Trends
- FPS Leasing
- Supply Issues - Local Content
5. The Deepwater Market Forecast
- Forecasting and Potential Upside
- The World Deepwater Market - By Region
- The World Deepwater Market - By Component
- Eastern Europe & FSU
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Western Europe
- Drilling and Completion: Subsea Completed Wells
- Drilling and Completion: Surface Completed Wells
- Subsea Production Hardware
- Floating Production Systems by Region
- Floating Production Systems by Type
- Deepwater Prospects
- Data and Text Conventions
- Figure 1: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2011 - 2020
- Figure 2: Global Deepwater Market Forecast Comparison (2015 Vs 2016)
- Figure 3: Global Deepwater Rig Demand & Utilisation (2000-2016)
- Figure 4: Breakeven Prices* and Historic & Forecast Onstream Years of Key Deepwater Projects ($/bbl)
- Figure 5: Global Oil Supply mix Shallow/Deep Split 2001-2021
- Figure 6: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021
- Figure 7: Global Subsea Hardware Capex by Component 2011-2020
- Figure 8: Oil Price & Demand,1990-2015
- Figure 9: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2015
- Figure 10: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010-January 2016
- Figure 11: Average Annual Brent Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
- Figure 12: O&G Sector Average Stock Performance Index, June 2014-Feb 2016
- Figure 13: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Orders, Q1 2008-Q3 2015
- Figure 14: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2010-2020
- Figure 15: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
- Figure 16: Natural Gas Price
- Figure 17: Brazillian Offshore Basins
- Figure 18: Subsea Focus Areas
- Figure 19: Completion Strategy and Deepwater Field Development Concept Selection
- Figure 20: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector
- Figure 21: Drilling and FPS Supply Chain
- Figure 22: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
- Figure 23: Rig Managers of Existing Deepwater Rigs
- Figure 24: Rig Managers of Deepwater Rigs Under Construction
- Figure 25: Deepwater Rigs Currently On Order by Shipyard
- Figure 26: Dayrates of Semi-submersibles, Drillship and Jackup Drilling Rigs
- Figure 27: Average Dayrates of Deepwater Drilling Rigs
- Figure 29: Visible Subsea Production Hardware Orders
- Figure 28: Market Share of Subsea Production Hardware Suppliers
- Figure 30: Leasing Contractors of Existing and Under Construction Deepwater Vessels
- Figure 31: Trees Installed by Category
- Figure 32: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 33: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 34: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 35: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 36: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 37: Eastern Europe & FSU - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 38: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 39: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 40: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 41: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Figure 42: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 43: Subsea Drilling - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 44: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 45: Surface Drilling - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 46: Subsea Production Hardware - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 47: Subsea Production Hardware - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 48: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 49: SURF - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 50: Trunklines - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 51: Trunklines - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 52: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Figure 53: Floating Production Systems - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Figure 54: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Type
- Figure 55: Floating Production Systems - Historic vs. Forecast Capex
- Table 1: International E&P Expenditure ($ million)
- Table 2: E&P Expenditure (Consolidated)
- Table 3: Selected Majors' Oil Production 2005-2015
- Table 4: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 5: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 6: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 7: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 8: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 9: Eastern Europe & FSU - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 10: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 11: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 12: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 13: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component
- Table 14: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 15: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Units by Component Type
- Table 16: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 17: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Units by Component Type
- Table 18: Subsea Production Hardware - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 19: Subsea Production Hardware - Units by Component Type
- Table 20: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 21: SURF - km by Component Type
- Table 22: Trunklines - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 23: Trunklines - km by Region
- Table 24: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region
- Table 25: Floating Production Systems - Units by Region
- Table 26: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Type
- Table 27: Floating Production Systems - Units by Type