Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-27-5
Rush to install offshore wind as 2020 Euro target looms
€200bn of Capital Expenditure will result in installed capacity >70GW by 2025
Now in its seventh edition, the new Douglas-Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecast provides a ten-year view of the sector through to 2025. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 74GW, driven by a large number of developments taking place in the UK, Germany and China and strengthened by the growth of new entrants to the offshore wind sector, such as France and the USA.
Following a strong year of offshore wind activity in 2015 (3.8GW installed), capacity installed will dip in 2016 to 1.5GW. However, capacity will return to an upward trend, peaking at 9.2GW in 2022. Capital Expenditure (Capex) on projects which have surpassed the conceptual stage of development will total €200 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2025, with potential upside of €70bn (“expected Capex”).
Capital costs have reduced in recent years, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure (such as foundations) being required per MWh generated. This upsizing presents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become operational.
The UK will add circa 10GW of capacity over the next decade, with most of this activity expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 10GW but has a longer term outlook, with activity levels peaking in 2021. China is expected to install over 10GW of capacity, lower than previously expected but still representing a strong growth market.
Emerging markets include countries such as the USA and France, who are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The USA is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW.
The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2025 and is essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on:
- Key drivers - a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity.
- Commercial insights - including analysis of cost pressures on capital, lifetime costs, risk factors and typical financing models.
- Technology review - analysis of research and development (R&D) priority areas.
- Supply chain - a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges.
- Ten-year market forecast - for new capacity, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, wind turbines, foundations, cabling, substations and vessels.
- Country analysis - detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity and segment analysis.
NEW FOR 2016:
- Component forecasts - translate “expected Capex”-into expected capacity and associated components, assuming a proportion of concept / speculative projects go ahead towards the end of the forecast period.
- Helicopter forecast - assessment of demand for construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) support, as a result of increased helicopter use as wind farms are installed far from shore.
- Key themes - discussion around new trends in the industry including: new technologies, clustering, repowering and logistical solutions including helicopters and service operation vessels (SOVs).
Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?
DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
- Industry consultation - discussion with a wide-range of companies including: project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we highlight pertinent quotes, related to specific aspects of the market.
- Unique and proprietary data - detailed by project in global offshore wind database. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Detailed methodology - our forecast provides a ‘medium-case' scenario for market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.
- Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year forecast of offshore wind expenditure.
- Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents
1. Summary and Conclusions
2. Drivers and Indicators
- Political Drivers
- Economic Drivers
- Low Carbon Power Generation
3. Offshore Wind Project Development
- Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle
- Offshore Wind Project Cost Structure
- Capex Phase 1: Planning & Development
- Capex Phase 1: Wind Turbine
- Capex Phase 1: Balance of Plant
- Capex Phase 1: Installation
- Opex Phase
- Capex Phase 2: Decommissioning
- Offshore Wind Supply Chain
4. Commercial Insights
- Project Scale
- Supply Chain
- Capital and Lifetime Costs
- Risk Profile
- Financing Challenges
- Contracting Strategies
- Industry Challenges
- Technology: Wind Turbines
- Technology: Foundations
- Key Trends: New Technologies
- Key Trends: Clustering and Repowering
- Key Trends: Logistics
- Key Markets: Current Capacity
- Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity 2016-2025
5. Market Forecast
- Added Capacity by Country
- Cumulative Capacity by Country
- Capital Expenditure by Country
- Annual Capital Expenditure by Type
- Operational Expenditure by Country
- Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Country
- Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Size
- Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Manufacturer
- Segment Forecasts: Foundations
- Segment Forecasts: Cables
- Segment Forecasts: Offshore Substations
- Segment Forecasts: Vessels
- Segment Forecasts: Helicopters
- Data and Text Conventions
- Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 2: Drivers for Offshore Wind
- Figure 3: EU 2020 Targets for Key Offshore Wind Markets - Progress to Date
- Figure 4: Global Primary Energy Demand Growth
- Figure 5: Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type
- Figure 6: Global Power Generation Forecast
- Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy - Key Technologies in Europe
- Figure 8: Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle
- Figure 9: Cost Breakdown by Project Phase - Capex, Opex, Decommissioning
- Figure 10: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Overview
- Figure 11: Average Project Capacity, Distance from Shore and Water Depth
- Figure 12: Offshore Wind Capex Drivers
- Figure 13: Offshore Wind Average Project Capex, 2000-2025
- Figure 14: Planning & Development Timelines, UK.
- Figure 15: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines
- Figure 16: Aerogenerator X
- Figure 17: Two-bladed Offshore Wind Turbine.
- Figure 18: Types of Floating Foundations.
- Figure 19: Picture of UAV
- Figure 20: Radar Image Showing Aircraft Flying Through Wind Farm
- Figure 21: Siemens OTM Module
- Figure 22: Artist's Impression of Siemens Facility
- Figure 24: Wind Service Operation Vessel (SOV)
- Figure 23: Heli-Hoist Basket
- Figure 25: Key Markets, the Global Picture
- Figure 26: Global Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, 2016
- Figure 27: Key Region, North-Western Europe
- Figure 28: Forecast Global Capacity Installation 2016-2025: Emerging Markets
- Figure 29: Global: Forecast Wind Farm, Capacity and Turbines
- Figure 30: All Offshore Wind Projects vs. DW Forecast Capacity, 2016-2025
- Figure 31: Global Forecast Capacity
- Figure 32: Global Offshore Wind Forecast Capacity Installed, 2016-2025
- Figure 33: North-Western Europe Forecast Capacity
- Figure 34: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 35: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 36: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 37: Expected Annual Offshore Wind Capex, by Type 2016-2025
- Figure 38: Planning and Development Capex, 2016-2025, €m
- Figure 39: Wind Turbine Annual Capex 2016-2025, €m
- Figure 40: Balance of Plant Annual Capex 2016-2025, €m
- Figure 41: Installation Annual Capex 2016-2025, €m
- Figure 42: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 43: Operational Expenditure by Activity
- Figure 44: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 45: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025
- Figure 46: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025
- Figure 47: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
- Figure 48: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 49: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025
- Figure 50: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Figure 51: Substations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
- Figure 52: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025
- Figure 53: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025
- Figure 54: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025
- Table 1: Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets
- Table 2: Foundation Types Comparison
- Table 3: Investor Types and Their Attitude to Risk
- Table 4: Contracting Strategies
- Table 5: Cost of Repowered Wind vs. CCGT 2005-2020
- Table 6: Offshore Wind Projects Status Methodology
- Table 7: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 8: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 9: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 10: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 11: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 12: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025
- Table 13: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025
- Table 14: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
- Table 15: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 16: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025
- Table 17: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025
- Table 18: Substations Installed by T ype, 2016-2025
- Table 19: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025
- Table 20: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025
- Table 21: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025