Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-38-1
Despite protracted market downturn, global FLNG Capex to total $41.6bn following Wave of Landmark Projects
Despite challenging market conditions, global capital expenditure (Capex) on FLNG facilities is forecast to increase significantly over the 2016-2022 period. The protracted oil price downturn has impacted the sanctioning of capital intensive liquefaction units over the last 24 months. However, the need to move towards cleaner sources of energy and diversify gas supply has stimulated the floating regasification market - over 14 countries are expected to commission their first floating import unit over the forecast period.
Douglas-Westwood (DW) expects global FLNG Capex to total $41.6 billion (bn) to 2022, compared with $11.4bn over 2011-2015 - an increase of 264%. Liquefaction vessels will account for approximately 59% of forecast expenditure, with the remaining 41% allocated to import and regasification terminals. Near-term growth in expenditure will be predominantly driven by a number of flagship liquefaction projects sanctioned prior to the oil price downturn.
Global expenditure is expected to peak in 2017 as the first wave of sanctioned projects come onstream. Reduced project sanctioning will likely impact the market towards the end of the decade - with expenditure forecast to decline significantly in 2019 - before stagnating over the 2019-2021 period. Long term prospects are positive, a marginal uptick in spending is expected in 2022, driven by the sanctioning of a second wave of capital intensive liquefaction projects. Over the forecast period, Africa and Asia will be key areas for liquefaction and regasification units - with both regions accounting for 54% of total global expenditure. Spend in Australasia is set to decline post 2018 after the installation of the Prelude FLNG.
Despite near-term concerns, the long term viability of FLNG technology is clear. In the decades ahead, natural gas will continue to play an increasingly important role in meeting global energy demand. Furthermore, the rising cost of onshore development terminals and the shorter lead times of floating units makes the technology a viable option in the current market environment.
The World FLNG Market Forecast 2017-2022 forecasts activity through to 2022 and contains analysis of:
- Market Drivers and Trends - including the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental solutions and increasing long-term gas demand.
- The FLNG Supply Chain - operators, FLNG leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside sub-contractors and financing analysis.
- FLNG Import and Export Capacity - prospective installations over 2016-2022, along with DW's forecast for the required Capex to bring this capacity online. This includes construction of base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasification) vessels.
- Capex Breakdowns - expenditure for liquefaction and regasification vessels segmented by component looking at topsides, hull & containment systems and mooring & transfer systems. And by service, including technology licencing, FEED, detailed design engineering, construction engineering, installation, hook-up & commissioning and construction of hull & topsides.
- Regional analysis - Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
Why purchase the FLNG Market Forecast?
Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms. Our proven process includes:
- Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
- Methodology - the report uses research from DW's proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Database', an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of FLNG market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast; with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect the commercial structures of likely projects.
- Market forecasts - comprehensive examination, analysis and 14-year coverage of FLNG expenditure.
- Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
- An essential report - for engineering houses, contractors, shipping companies, vessel lease operators, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities and financial institutions wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.
Table of Contents
1. Summary and Conclusions
- Summary and Conclusions
2. Why Floating LNG?
- Floating Liquefaction -- Market Drivers
- Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions
- Floating Liquefaction -- Onshore Cost Comparison
- The History of Floating LNG
- Floating Regasification -- Market Drivers
3. Floating Liquefaction
- LNG FPSO
- Containment Systems
- LNG FPSO Process Diagram
- Liquefaction Plant Process Flow
- Liquefaction Technology
- Offloading to Regasification Vessels
4. Floating Regasification
- FSRU & Regasification Vessels
- Topsides & Regasification Process
- Destination LNG Offloading
5. FLNG Supply Chain
- LNG FPSO Supply Chain: Pre-FEED/FEED
- LNG FPSO Supply Chain: EPC
- Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain
- LNG Business Model
- Shipyard Review
- Leasing Contractors -- Floating Liquefaction
- Leasing Contractors -- Floating Regasification
6. FLNG Projects
- Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects
- Floating Regasification
- Floating Liquefaction Projects
- Pioneer FLNG Projects
7. Market Forecast
- Conversion Tables
- Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels
- Data and Text Conventions
- Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2009-2022
- Figure 2: Percentage Regional Comparison on FLNG 2016-2022
- Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2015)
- Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain
- Figure 5: Indicative Capex by Service for a Floating Liquefaction Project ($/t/y)
- Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex ($/t/y)
- Figure 7: Indicative Capex by Component for an Onshore Liquefaction Project ($/t/y)
- Figure 8: History of Floating LNG
- Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities
- Figure 10: Gas Consumption by Region 2005-2035
- Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout
- Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank
- Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow
- Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process
- Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process
- Figure 16: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)
- Figure 17: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop)
- Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain
- Figure 19: LNG FPSO EPC Supply Chain
- Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain
- Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure
- Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model
- Figure 23: Natural Gas Prices ($/thousand btu) & Europe Brent Spot Prices ($/bbl), 2005-15
- Figure 24: Global Floating Regasification Fleet
- Figure 25: Focus areas for FLNG export project development
- Figure 26: Shell Prelude FLNG
- Figure 27: Petronas PFLNG-Satu
- Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU
- Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel
- Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2009-2022
- Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2009-2022
- Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2009-2022
- Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2009-2022
- Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2009-2022
- Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2009-2022
- Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2009-2022
- Figure 37: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2009-2022
- Figure 38: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2009-2022
- Figure 39: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2015-2022
- Figure 46: Expected Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America In Two Previous Reports
- Figure 47: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2015-2022
- Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components
- Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition
- Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators
- Table 4: Floating LNG Projects by Status and Year
- Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details
- Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2015-2022
- Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2015-2022
- Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2015-2022
- Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2015-2022
- Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2015-2022
- Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2015-2022
- Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2015-2022
- Table 13: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2015-2022
- Table 14: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2015-2022
- Table 15: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2015-2022
- Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2015-2022
- Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2015-2022
- Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2015-2022
- Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2015-2022
- Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2015-2022
- Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2015-2022
- Table 22: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2015-2022
- Table 23: Conversion Table
- Table 24: Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels