浮体式生産システム (FPS) の世界市場の予測：2016-2020年
World Floating Production Market Forecast 2016-2020
|浮体式生産システム (FPS) の世界市場の予測：2016-2020年 World Floating Production Market Forecast 2016-2020|
浮体式生産システム (FPS) への設備投資額は2020年までの予測期間中、総計で580億米ドルの規模となると予測されています。昨年後半の石油価格の大幅な下落により、この数値は前回の予測に比べ大幅に低い値となっています。
当レポートでは、世界の浮体式生産システム (FPS) の市場を調査し、市場成長への各種影響因子の分析、主要FPS事業者のプロファイルおよびCAPEXの予測、FPSのサプライチェーン、今後のリース&ファイナンス面の展望、地域分析、操業中あるいは予測期間中に操業予定のFPSの詳細などをまとめています。
The report forecasts capital expenditure (Capex) of $58 billion for floating production units over the forecast period, as high Capex units ordered before the downturn come onstream. It also considers which projects are expected to go ahead in the current price environment, with 2016 expected to see the bottoming out of orders ahead of improvement in 2017.
Douglas-Westwood's (DW) new World Floating Production Market Report 2016-2020 forecasts that Capex for FPS units will total $58 billion (bn) over the period to 2020. This is substantially lower than expected last year, as result of plummeting oil prices over the second half of the year, but the value of the order book remains near record levels. There remains a wave of projects, ordered over the previous cycle, that are yet to be installed. Many of these have seen installation dates slip, with delivery on time (and budget) clearly still an issue for the industry. The looming challenge for the supply chain, and particularly shipyards, is the lack of new orders to refill the backlog after these units come onstream.
2015 was a weak year for orders in the FPS industry with only four vessel contracts being awarded with a total value of $3bn. There have been no orders to date in 2016. It appears we have reached the bottom of the down cycle and operators are adjusting to the low oil price and will begin to order again in the second half of the year. DW expects a low order value of $2.6bn this year, from a higher number of orders than in 2015. Operators are pushing both cost reduction measures and complete re-engineering of projects. Two key examples are the FPSS for the Mad Dog Phase 2 project (which should be ordered this year) and the Johan Castberg FPSO. Both fields had development plans that were uneconomic when the oil price was $110 but due to cost decreases and revised development plans are now economic at a low price - showing that operators are willing to adjust and work at the new price norm.
There was limited commissioning in 2015 and as a result the value of units under construction declined only $3bn, from $54bn to $51bn in the last year. In 2016 we have already seen the start-up of high-Capex vessels such as the Goliat FPSO in Norway, while vessels such as Turritella for the Stones field in North America and the FPSS and FPSO for the Ichthys field in Australia are due to start in the coming years.
The current downturn represents an opportunity for the industry to move towards a more standardised approach to FPS engineering, which has been debated for many years, without significant progress. We expect a leaner, more efficient FPS industry to emerge from this downturn.
The report is now offered quarterly, allowing DW to quickly highlight changes in the market and highlight how different companies are reacting to the current oil price environment.
With this new quarterly report there are a number of different purchasing options available. The new quarterly release is available as a standalone option which includes the current quarterly update as well as the full annual report. It can also be purchased as part of a subscription where you will receive three further quarterly updates as well as the latest full annual report and current quarter's update.
The World Floating Production Market Forecast is now in its 14th edition and is supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:
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