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市場調査レポート

浮体式生産システム (FPS) の世界市場の予測:2016-2020年

World Floating Production Market Forecast 2016-2020

発行 Douglas-Westwood 商品コード 217636
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
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浮体式生産システム (FPS) の世界市場の予測:2016-2020年 World Floating Production Market Forecast 2016-2020
出版日: ページ情報: 英文
概要

浮体式生産システム (FPS) への設備投資額は2020年までの予測期間中、総計で580億米ドルの規模となると予測されています。昨年後半の石油価格の大幅な下落により、この数値は前回の予測に比べ大幅に低い値となっています。

当レポートでは、世界の浮体式生産システム (FPS) の市場を調査し、市場成長への各種影響因子の分析、主要FPS事業者のプロファイルおよびCAPEXの予測、FPSのサプライチェーン、今後のリース&ファイナンス面の展望、地域分析、操業中あるいは予測期間中に操業予定のFPSの詳細などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 市場成長推進因子・阻害因子
    • 世界のエネルギー需要
    • オフショア鉱床の継続的開発
    • 石油・ガス価格
    • 需給バランス
    • ブラジルの取り組み
    • 深海の役割
  • 事業者の分析
    • 主要FPS事業者のCAPEXの推移と予測
    • 地域別
    • 深度別
  • FPSのサプライチェーン
    • FPSサプライチェーンの詳細分析
    • EPC事業者の概要
    • 造船業者の概要
    • リース契約業者
    • トップサイドファブリケーター
  • リース&ファイナンス
    • ファイナンスに関する課題と将来の展望
    • 主要リース契約業者の分析:資産・船舶の再配置のレビュー
  • 地域分析
    • アフリカ
    • アジア
    • オーストララシア
    • ラテンアメリカ
    • 中東
    • 北米
    • 西欧
  • 浮体式生産の展望
    • FPSのリスト
      • E&P事業者
      • フィールド
      • FPS名称
      • 操業年数
      • FPSのステータス
      • FPSタイプ
      • 深度

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目次

The report forecasts capital expenditure (Capex) of $58 billion for floating production units over the forecast period, as high Capex units ordered before the downturn come onstream. It also considers which projects are expected to go ahead in the current price environment, with 2016 expected to see the bottoming out of orders ahead of improvement in 2017.

Floating Production Orders Bottom Out - Spend to Total $58 Billion 2016-2020

Douglas-Westwood's (DW) new World Floating Production Market Report 2016-2020 forecasts that Capex for FPS units will total $58 billion (bn) over the period to 2020. This is substantially lower than expected last year, as result of plummeting oil prices over the second half of the year, but the value of the order book remains near record levels. There remains a wave of projects, ordered over the previous cycle, that are yet to be installed. Many of these have seen installation dates slip, with delivery on time (and budget) clearly still an issue for the industry. The looming challenge for the supply chain, and particularly shipyards, is the lack of new orders to refill the backlog after these units come onstream.

2015 was a weak year for orders in the FPS industry with only four vessel contracts being awarded with a total value of $3bn. There have been no orders to date in 2016. It appears we have reached the bottom of the down cycle and operators are adjusting to the low oil price and will begin to order again in the second half of the year. DW expects a low order value of $2.6bn this year, from a higher number of orders than in 2015. Operators are pushing both cost reduction measures and complete re-engineering of projects. Two key examples are the FPSS for the Mad Dog Phase 2 project (which should be ordered this year) and the Johan Castberg FPSO. Both fields had development plans that were uneconomic when the oil price was $110 but due to cost decreases and revised development plans are now economic at a low price - showing that operators are willing to adjust and work at the new price norm.

There was limited commissioning in 2015 and as a result the value of units under construction declined only $3bn, from $54bn to $51bn in the last year. In 2016 we have already seen the start-up of high-Capex vessels such as the Goliat FPSO in Norway, while vessels such as Turritella for the Stones field in North America and the FPSS and FPSO for the Ichthys field in Australia are due to start in the coming years.

The current downturn represents an opportunity for the industry to move towards a more standardised approach to FPS engineering, which has been debated for many years, without significant progress. We expect a leaner, more efficient FPS industry to emerge from this downturn.

The report is now offered quarterly, allowing DW to quickly highlight changes in the market and highlight how different companies are reacting to the current oil price environment.

With this new quarterly report there are a number of different purchasing options available. The new quarterly release is available as a standalone option which includes the current quarterly update as well as the full annual report. It can also be purchased as part of a subscription where you will receive three further quarterly updates as well as the latest full annual report and current quarter's update.

The World Floating Production Market Forecast is now in its 14th edition and is supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

  • Drivers & indicators - a review of factors influencing the floating production market including global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; supply & demand; Brazilian activity; and the role of deepwater.
  • Operator analysis - Capex for the leading FPS operators, historic, forecast and by region and water depth.
  • The FPS supply chain - detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, outlining the EPC firms, shipyards, lease contractors, topside fabricators and their respective capabilities.
  • Leasing & financing - the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; analysis of major leasing contractors, their assets and a review of prospective vessel redeployments.
  • Regional analysis - with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
  • Floating production prospects - list of floating production systems due onstream over 2016-2020, including the following data: country, E&P operator, field, FPS name, prospective year, status of FPS, FPS type and moored water depth.

The quarterly updates include:

  • Drivers & indicators - a review of factors influencing the floating production market including continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; and Brazilian activity.
  • New FPS orders and onstream vessels - a summary of vessels that have been ordered or have come onstream in the last 12 months, as well as a list of both orders and onstream vessels we expect over the next year.
  • Latest regional analysis - with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
  • Floating production prospects - list of floating production systems due onstream over 2016-2020, including the following data: country, E&P operator, field, FPS name, prospective year, status of FPS, FPS type and moored water depth.

Why purchase the World Floating Production Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, lease contractors, shipbuilders and agencies & government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - analysis is based on DW's in-house Oil & Gas database which details more than 700 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation.
  • Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of floating production capital expenditure.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
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