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市場調査レポート

世界のコンテナ船市場の予測(四半期ベース)

Container Forecaster

発行 Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited 商品コード 305823
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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世界のコンテナ船市場の予測(四半期ベース) Container Forecaster
出版日: ページ情報: 英文
概要

当レポートでは、世界のコンテナ船市場の最新動向(四半期ベース)について分析し、コンテナ輸送量および主要港湾の取扱量、コンテナ船の需要量・供給量(今後3年間の予測)、主なコンテナ貿易航路の状況、貨物運賃・収益性の動向、コンテナ船のチャーター(用船)および売買(S&P)の動き、地域別市場の詳細動向などを調査・予測情報をお届けします。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー:暗礁地帯を乗り切る

第2章 世界のコンテナ貿易量と港湾取扱量

  • 世界のコンテナ港の輸送量
  • コンテナ輸送活動の将来予測

第3章 全世界のコンテナ船供給量

  • コンテナ船団の現状
  • コンテナ船の受注状況
  • 解体
  • コンテナ船/船団の動向予測

第4章 需給バランス

  • 近年の動向
  • 緩慢な市場動向
  • 需給バランスの予測
  • 係船状況

第5章 貿易ルートの分析

  • 東西枢軸
  • 太平洋横断貿易
  • アジア・北欧間貿易
  • アジア・地中海間貿易
  • 大西洋横断貿易
  • 中央・南アジアから/への貿易
  • 欧州から/への貿易
  • 北米から/への貿易
  • アジアから/への貿易

第6章 貨物運賃とコンテナ船の財務状況

  • 世界市場規模の動向
  • 貨物運賃の動向と予測
  • 収益性

第7章 チャーター市場と船舶売買(S&P)

  • チャーター市場の動向
  • チャーター市場の将来展望
  • コンテナ船の売買状況
  • 新規建造価格
  • 解体価格

付録

  • アジア・欧州間およびアジア・地中海間の貿易量の比較
  • 2012年以降のコンテナ船新規受注状況
  • 欧州市場の傾向:燃料サーチャージの変動
  • コンテナ港の貨物通貨量の比較(四半期ベース)
  • 地域の定義
  • 港湾の略称一覧
  • 用語集
  • Drewryについて

図表一覧

目次

The reference for the container industry.

Key areas covered:

  • World container trade and port volumes
  • Global supply and demand
  • Trade route analysis
  • Freight rates and carrier financials
  • The charter market and Sales & Purchases

Widely available contrast supply side data is largely pointless without a convincing reference point to demand. Drewry Maritime Research's Container Forecaster addresses this critical information gap covering global and regional markets to provide a unique tool for market analysis and short term forecasting.

Description

Every quarter the Container Forecaster delivers up to date topical analysis, comment and 3 year forecasts across a whole range of demand, supply, rate and cost issues. Chapters are devoted to the following topics

World container trade and port volumes looking at:

  • Container traffic seasonality, including growth in throughput volumes
  • Estimated annual growth in container activity by region Estimated world container trade by route and market sector including global empty and transhipment volumes
  • Container activity and growth by region covering base demand, high demand and low demand cases

Global supply and demand presents information on:

  • Current fleet and orderbook including newbuild and demolition prices
  • Top 20 independent ship owners and ocean carriers owned fleets
  • Forecast supply-demand balance covering base demand, high demand and low demand cases

Major East-West and North-South trades routes analysed for:

  • Average trade utilisation levels and capacity development
  • Forecasted trade volumes and current trade route drivers and dynamics

This in-depth analysis is further supplemented by a detailed trade capacity and service summary for both East-West routes and North-South routes.

Freight rates and carrier financials including:

  • Forecasted average unit rates and container freight rates covering base demand, high demand and low demand cases
  • Estimated revenue and operating profit per teu of selected carriers
  • Container Industry profitability forecasts and estimated annual bunker costs for container industry

Sales, purchases and the charter market, specifically:

  • Actual recorded fixtures, rates and average duration
  • Top 10 charterers in capacity teu and number of vessels
  • Summary of secondhand vessel sales and development of secondhand prices

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary: Surviving in shallow waters

2. World container trade and port volumes

  • World container port traffic
  • Forecast of container traffic activity

3. Global supply

  • The current fleet
  • The containership orderbook
  • Demolition
  • Forecast containership fleet development

4. Supply-demand balance

  • Recent developments
  • Slow steaming
  • Forecast supply-demand balance
  • Idle tonnage

5. Trade route analysis

  • East-West axis
  • Transpacific trade
  • Asia-North Europe trade
  • Asia-Mediterranean
  • Transatlantic trade
  • Trades to and from the Middle and South Asia
  • Trades to and from Europe
  • Trades to and from North America
  • Trades to and from Asia

6. Freight rates and carrier financials

  • Global industry accounts
  • Freight rate development and forecast
  • Profitability

7. The charter market and S&P

  • Charter market development
  • The charter market outlook
  • Sale and purchase
  • Newbuilding prices
  • Demolition prices

Appendices

  • Cascading from Asia to Europe and Asia to Mediterranean trade lanes during 1Q13
  • Containership newbuilding orders from 2012
  • European trades - bunker surcharges developments
  • Port throughput quarterly comparison - 1Q14
  • Definition of regions by country
  • Port code abbreviations
  • Glossary of terms
  • Drewry

Tables

  • Drewry key supply and demand changes
  • Monthly year-on-year global growth in throughput volumes
  • Monthly growth in container throughputs at Chinese ports
  • Comparison of Chinese versus global port growth
  • Estimated world container traffic and its components
  • Real GDP growth in major economies
  • Consumer confidence snapshot
  • China manufacturing outlook summary
  • Quarterly forecast container growth by region
  • Quarterly forecast container activity by region
  • Forecast development of world container traffic
  • World cellular containership fleet by size range
  • Recent developments of world cellular container fleet
  • Unadjusted containership orderbook by size and scheduled delivery year
  • Delivery schedule 2014-2017 of vessels over 10,000 teu
  • Recent container asset market activity
  • Sales for demolition, 2009-2014
  • Forecast adjusted containership fleet development
  • Adjusted global containership orderbook, 2011-17
  • Vessel delivery schedule for 2014
  • East-West trades slow steaming monitor
  • Estimated service speeds, Asia-North Europe trade
  • Estimated service speeds, Asia-WCNA trade
  • Asia - Middle East & Indian Subcontinent slow steaming monitor
  • Forecast global supply-demand balance
  • Forecast development of East-West headhaul supply-demand balance
  • Estimated global idle fleet, 9 June, 2014
  • Geographical breakdown of idle fleet, June 2014
  • Global summary of idle fleet under and above 4,000 teu
  • List of containerships scrapped after idling
  • Annualised effective capacity on the headhaul East-West trades
  • Summary of selected major East-West services, quarter by quarter, commencing 2Q14
  • Capacity share comparison by Alliance - Asia-North Europe container trade
  • Capacity share comparison by Alliance - Asia-North America container trade
  • Capacity share comparison by Alliance - Asia-Med container trade
  • Capacity share comparison by Alliance - N Europe-N America container trade
  • Development of Transpacific capacity, 2010-2014
  • Summary of recent changes to Transpacific services, May 2014
  • Transpacific trade - forecast containerised cargo volumes by quarter, 2011-2015
  • US imports from Far East (teu) - Jan-May 2014 v 2013
  • Transpacific trade - estimated quarterly supply-demand position, 2010-2014
  • Development of North Europe/Far East capacity, 2010-2014
  • Development of cascading from Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades, 4Q12-1Q14
  • Forecast development of North Europe/Far East container trade volumes 2011-15
  • North Europe/Far East trade - estimated quarterly supply-demand position, 2010-14
  • Mediterranean/Far East trade development of capacity 2010-14
  • Mediterranean/Far East trade - estimated and forecast containerised cargo volumes, 2011-15
  • Mediterranean/Far East trade - estimated supply-demand position 2010-14
  • Development of Transatlantic capacity, 2010-14
  • Transatlantic trade - forecast containerised cargo volumes by quarter, 2011-15
  • Transatlantic trade - estimated quarterly supply-demand position, 2010-14
  • Summary of major services to and from the Middle East and South Asia, quarter by quarter, commencing 2Q14
  • Development of Europe-ME and South Asia capacity, 2012-14
  • Europe-ME and South Asia - containerised cargo volumes by quarter, 2012-14
  • Development of Asia-ME and South Asia capacity 2012-14,
  • Asia-ME and South Asia - containerised cargo volumes by quarter, 2012-14
  • Nominal global carrier income, 2010-14
  • Estimated income development on East-West trades by quarter
  • Historical estimated average unit rate, East/West container market, 2009-14
  • Development of container freight rates by route of selected carriers
  • Forecast estimated average unit rate, East/West container market
  • Forecast estimated average unit rate, global container market
  • Development of selected carriers' quarterly average unit revenues, 2010-2014
  • Intra-Asian average quarterly freight rates on selected routes, 2013-14
  • Financial results of selected carriers, first quarter 2013-14
  • Financial results of selected carriers, Annual 2012-13
  • Zim's business plan, financial forecast 2013-18
  • Zim's business plan, cost savings forecast 2014-18
  • Actual recorded fixtures, 1Q14
  • Average one-year time charter rates, 2009-14
  • Average actual time charter rates and average period duration, 2009-14
  • Average slot charter rates, 2009-14
  • Development of secondhand prices
  • Selected secondhand vessel sales during 1Q14
  • Recent containers sale & purchase activity
  • Estimated development of newbuilding prices
  • Demolition prices

Figures

  • Forecast development in world container traffic
  • Adjusted containership orderbook
  • Recent orders, split per vessel size
  • Forecast supply-demand gap - global and East-West markets
  • Weighted freight rates and supply/demand index comparison on East-West trades
  • East-West trade spot rates, 2012-14
  • Containership fleet development
  • Orderbook by size range
  • Recent orders split by vessel size
  • Delivery breakdown of unadjusted orderbook, 2014-18
  • Vessels in fleet - 10,000 to 13,999 teu
  • Vessels on order - 10,000 to 13,999 teu
  • Vessels in fleet - 14,000+ teu
  • Vessels on order - 14,000+ teu
  • Estimated adjusted containership fleet growth
  • Comparison of adjusted and unadjusted global container fleets, 2011-2017
  • Annual growth of global container fleets under and above 8,000 teu nominal capacity, 2011-2016
  • Slow steaming and fuel prices
  • Estimated average Asia-N Europe service speeds, 2013-14
  • Estimated average Asia-WCNA service speeds, 2013-14
  • The impact of inactivity on the global supply-demand balance
  • Forecast supply-demand gap - global and East-West markets
  • Global supply-demand trends since 2008
  • Asia-North Europe - westbound import region growth, 1st quarter 2012-14
  • Asia-Mediterranean - westbound import region growth, 1st quarter 2012-2014
  • Average revenue per teu of selected major carriers, 2010-2014
  • Weighted freight rates and supply/demand index comparison on East-West trades
  • Freight rates, unit costs and supply-demand balance
  • Development of intra-Asian 20ft rates, 1Q13-1Q14
  • Development of intra-Asian 40ft rates, 1Q13-1Q14
  • 1Q14 scorecard: comparison of EBIT margins, revenue of selected carriers
  • Estimated carrier industry EBIT profit/loss and EBIT margins, 1Q10-1Q14
  • Estimated unit costs of selected carriers
  • Estimated reductions of unit revenues, costs for selected carriers, 1Q 2014
  • Zim business plan - trade forecasts
  • Zim business plan - average revenue per teu by trade
  • Recent developments in spot market freight rates and fuel prices
  • Recorded monthly time charter levels
  • Average fixture period
  • Average fixture periods per vessel size, 1Q14
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