Diabetes -- KOL Insight and Consensus Outlook Modules
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 224 Pages
|糖尿病：KOLの洞察およびコンセンサスの展望 Diabetes -- KOL Insight and Consensus Outlook Modules|
|出版日: 2014年02月27日||ページ情報: 英文 224 Pages||
肥満レベルおよび糖尿病の罹患率は、先進・新興市場のどちらにおいても上昇しており、5年間のCAGRは12%以上で2012年の市場額は319億米ドルに達しました。2030年までに糖尿病の患者数は約2倍の3億4,700万人(90%は2型糖尿病患者)になると予測されています。糖尿病市場は5カ年のCAGRが11%で成長し、540億米ドル規模に達すると予測されています。同市場における主要4社はNovo Nordisk、Sanofi、Eli Lilly および Merck となっています。
The fundamental drivers of the global diabetes market are strong and continue to fuel growth. Rising levels of obesity and disease prevalence in both established and emerging markets have seen the sector return a 5 year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12% to reach US$31.9 billion in 2012. It is estimated that 347 million people have the disease - 90% of whom are Type II diabetes sufferers - and this figure could almost double by 2030.
The big four companies in diabetes - Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly and Merck - are locked in a battle for supremacy which is set to continue over the medium term. While Novo Nordisk currently leads the pack, Sanofi is close behind. With Novo Nordisk's approval of Tresiba (insulin degedec) stalled in the US over safety concerns, Sanofi latest version of Lantus U300 (insulin glargine) could capitalise. Bristol Myers-Squibb and AstraZeneca are just two of the other players set to increase their sales significantly in this busy marketplace by 2017.
The diabetes market will continue on an upward trajectory, and an estimated 5 year CAGR of 11% will see the sector top US$54 billion - the question is which companies will have a slice to this market, and how big will it be?
Finding market voice for new products in diabetes depends critically on price and differentiation. Cost of treatment is already an issue and resistance can be expected from health payers if new products offer only marginal therapeutic or patient management benefits. For example, excitement about Sanofi's U300 (insulin glargine) is because it shows differentiation to Lantus with "peakless" delivery and longer duration. Eli Lilly's weekly dose dulaglutide may offer advantages over other launched and pipeline GLP-1 products such as such as GSK's Eperzan (albiglutide) and BMS/AZ/Amylin's Bydureon (exanatide) but meaningful advantages need to be shown for success in the market.
Don't expect a revolution in diabetes treatment soon. New products coming to market are essentially incremental improvements over current approaches, with better safety profiles and geared to improving patient compliance.
The real prize will be for the company that can bring a paradigm shift to the treatment of diabetes. Upsetting the status quo will require a fundamentally different approach - and some of these developments threaten the diabetes drugs manufacturers existing revenues.
Among the developments to be aware of are the threat of biosimilars, the development of an artificial pancreas 'closed loop' system, the wide implementation of which would be a doomsday development for drugs companies, and a DNA reverse vaccine for which early clinical results have shown promise.
For instant access to an accurate, unbiased, qualitative review of the latest treatment trends along with a five-year quantitative diabetes market forecast look no further than FirstWord's Therapy Trends: Diabetes. This comprehensive FirstWord research is available in two comprehensive modules:
KOL Insight Report
Interactive Analytics File