Diabetic Nephropathy Market and Forecast Analysis to 2037
発行: Datamonitor Healthcare
ページ情報: 英文 90 Pages
20歳以上の成人の糖尿病性腎症 (DN) 患者は、2018年時点で世界全体で1億2260万人に達したと推計されており、その数は2027年までに1億3820万人にまで増加する見通しです。現在は降圧性ACE阻害剤やARBが1型・2型DNの主な治療薬となっていますが、SGLT-2阻害剤の利用も始まっており、他にも様々なパイプライン製品の治験が現在進められています。
Diabetic nephropathy, also known as diabetic kidney disease, is caused by damage to small blood vessels which can cause the kidneys to be less efficient in their blood filtration role or to fail altogether. The disease is a clinical syndrome characterized by albuminuria, decline in glomerular filtration rate, and elevated arterial blood pressure. Up to 50% of diabetics with a disease duration of over 20 years have diabetic nephropathy.
Datamonitor Healthcare estimates that in 2018, there were approximately 122.6 million prevalent cases of diabetic nephropathy (DN) in adults aged 20 years and older worldwide, and forecasts that number to increase to 138.2 million prevalent cases by 2027, driven by population demographics. Approximately 30% of diagnosed diabetics are also diagnosed with DN. However, screening practices differ among countries and local health systems, which can impact patients identified for treatment.
The DN market is complex, because in addition to specific mechanisms that directly impact the disease, blood pressure and glycemic control are additional general targets that affect the condition. Moreover, there is high cardiovascular (CV) risk in DN patients, and many physicians may be more concerned about that than the risk for end-stage renal disease, especially in less advanced patients. Hence, drugs that directly impact DN and also benefit these other targets or have a CV benefit can have a competitive advantage.
The antihypertensive ACE inhibitors or ARBs are the mainstay of treatment currently for type 1 and type 2 DN, as they have renal benefits beyond blood pressure lowering. Usage increases at higher renal stages (indicating greater renal impairment), though it may decline in stage 4 due to concerns about complications of hyperkalemia or deterioration of renal function in more advanced patients. Patients may also be receiving these medications for hypertension, which is present in most with DN, or other CV indications, without a specific intention of treating DN.
The antidiabetic SGLT-2 inhibitors are already used in some DN patients to treat their diabetes, albeit they are hampered by some side effects, but are poised to expand further, with additional approvals specifically for type 2 DN. They have a number of benefits in addition to renoprotective and antidiabetic effects, including blood pressure lowering, reducing co-morbid CV risk - especially heart failure (HF), but also, in some situations, CV death or MACE - weight loss, and a low risk of hypoglycemia. Their antidiabetic effects start to wane in stage 3 renal impairment, however, even though renal and CV benefits may persist further, raising the dilemma for physicians whether to instead then use other antidiabetics with stronger antiglycemic effects, such as the GLP-1 agonists, which also have CV and possibly renal benefits. Invokana was the first SGLT-2 inhibitor with a type 2 DN indication, but is unlikely to be able to capitalize much on it due to concerns about a possible increased risk of amputations. Farxiga and Jardiance have pivotal trials that include non-diabetic CKD patients as well, and Farxiga's was stopped early due to a positive interim analysis. Farxiga also already has approvals related to HF, including a general HFrEF indication that includes non-diabetics, which could help, but Jardiance should have broad HF data in 2020 and also showed a large reduction in CV death in its CVOT, which has propelled it to be the class leader in diabetes generally. Both Farxiga and Jardiance have ongoing trials in HFpEF, for which there currently are no approved treatments, but expectations are muted given how difficult the condition has been to treat. Loss of exclusivity for the class starts in 2025, however.
Finerenone is a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) that has shown renal and CV benefits in its initial Phase III study in type 2 DN, though details on efficacy and safety have not been released. While there are approved generic MRAs in other CV indications which have shown some renal benefits, they have not had a definitive trial in DN due to concerns about hyperkalemia. Finerenone was designed to have an improved risk/benefit profile, but that remains to be proven, and physician concern about potential hyperkalemia may still relegate it to a specialty drug.
Ozempic is a weekly injectable GLP-1 agonist, and Rybelsus is its daily oral formulation. Both drugs are highly effective in treating type 2 diabetes and have shown signals of a CV benefit, though only Ozempic currently has a CV indication in the US. Ozempic is the first GLP-1 agonist with a dedicated type 2 DN outcomes trial, FLOW, though primary completion is only slated for 2024. If positive, Novo Nordisk plans to bridge results to Rybelsus using renal outcomes data from the latter's CVOT. There is some uncertainty, as the evidence for a renal benefit is not as strong as for SGLT-2 inhibitors, and there are still questions about the mechanism by which GLP-1 agonists could have renoprotective effects. Nevertheless, another weekly GLP-1 agonist, Trulicity, showed benefits on a renal composite in DN patients, bolstering confidence, though Trulicity itself is not being further developed in DN. If the results for FLOW are positive, both Ozempic and Rybelsus would have the advantage of better glycemic control than SGLT-2 inhibitors, even at more advanced stages of renal impairment, though they do have more GI side effects.
Bardoxolone has had a tortured history in DN, with early termination of the BEACON trial in 2012 due to an excess of HF hospitalizations or death from HF. Subsequent analyses suggested this was due to fluid retention in at-risk patients, and the drug did indeed have an impact on a renal composite. Following this, development resumed in orphan conditions and type 1 DN. It is not clear if Reata will develop it further in the latter, as other indications would allow orphan pricing, but in Japan, Kyowa Kirin is conducting a Phase III study in patients with either type 1 or type 2 DN, stage 3-4, with results expected in 2022. There are some concerns about the drug, though, because it also increases UACR, which typically is a negative sign, though there are possible explanations. Physicians will also have to be concerned about avoiding it in patients who may be at risk for HF.
While bardoxolone is the only drug including type 1 DN in its development, which would give it an advantage in that indication, that is a smaller group of patients, and other drugs could be used off-label by specialists, especially as there are not mechanistic reasons to think they may not also work in type 1.
The overall likelihood of approval of a Phase I DN asset is 2.6%, and the average probability a drug advances from Phase III is 20%, though the sample for the latter is limited. DN drugs, on average, take 12.0 years from Phase I to approval, compared to 9.4 years in the overall endocrine space.