Ten year Forecast and Analysis on the International Agriculture Markets
|発行||DOANE Advisory Services||商品コード||113260|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 107 Pages
|世界の農作物市場：10ヵ年予測・分析 Ten year Forecast and Analysis on the International Agriculture Markets|
|出版日: 2010年12月07日||ページ情報: 英文 107 Pages||
Making projections into the future is always difficult. Two years ago, the evidence seemed clear that it would be difficult for world grain production to keep pace with demand. In six of the seven years from 2000 through 2006, world consumption exceeded production and world ending stocks were drawn down. The net deficit during that seven year period was nearly 200 million tonnes. But the balance has been dramatically different during the last three years, including the projections for the current year. Production has exceeded consumption in each of the years, with a net surplus of 130 million tonnes. The question is which recent period will the future look like?
It is helpful to look back at what happened during the 1999 through 2006 period and compare that with more recent developments. During the 1999 through 2006 period, world grain area and yield both increased, butworld demand increased by an even larger amount. It is tempting to say that the surge in demand was the result of the boom in the ethanol industry in the U.S. No doubt that explains a part of the strong demand growth. World grain demand increased by roughly 10 percent over those seven years, while world production increased by a little less than seven percent.
But if we take the U.S. out of the calculation, we find that foreign demand growth was almost as strong as the demand growth in the U.S. U.S. grain demand increased by 10.6 percent over the period, while the increase in foreign demand was slightly above 10 percent. The strength in the U.S. ethanol industry shows up more dramatically in the 2006 through 2009 period. U.S. grain demand increases by 18 percent over this period, while foreign consumption increases by less than five percent.
The global recession has probably had a negative impact on foreign grain consumption recently. However, the real key to the turnaround in the grain balance appears to be on the production side. World grain production has increased by about 10 percent since 2006, more than the increase recorded between 1999 and 2006. The increase in production has been triggered by both higher acreage and strong yields.