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通信インフラ部門における半導体タイミング製品の市場機会

Clock and Timing Opportunities in Communications Infrastructure

発行 Consulting Services & Associates 商品コード 196203
出版日 ページ情報 英文
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通信インフラ部門における半導体タイミング製品の市場機会 Clock and Timing Opportunities in Communications Infrastructure
出版日: 2016年06月16日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

通信インフラ部門は利益幅が大きく、収益を得られる期間が長期に及ぶことから、クロック産業にとってもっとも魅力的な市場です。2010年、通信インフラ部門におけるタイミング製品の有効市場(TAM)は14億ドルの規模を記録しました。同市場は今後7%のCAGRで推移し、2014年には18億6,000万ドルの規模に達すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、通信インフラ部門におけるクロックおよびタイミング製品の市場機会について調査分析し、エンドアプリケーション・機能・製品タイプ別の通信用クロック(水晶・IC製品)の有効市場と消費予測、ICおよび発振器の製品・技術要件、主要システムベンダー/ターゲットアカウントの分析、タイミングベンダーにとっての市場機会と課題の検証などをまとめ、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。

目次

序文

産業構造

  • 概要
  • 長期成長
  • トラフィック成長の推進因子
  • トラフィックの拡大のために求められるタイミング技術の改善

4GおよびLTEはどのように関連するか?

  • 4GとLTEの違い
  • 音声のサポート

インターネットセキュリティ

通信インフラ用機器の分類

  • エンタープライズネットワーキング
  • キャリアワイヤラインネットワーク
  • キャリアワイヤレスネットワーク

通信用クロックのTAM

  • 通信用クロックのTAM:市場別
  • 通信用クロックのTAM:市場区分別
  • 通信用クロックのTAM:機能別
  • 通信用クロックのTAM:製品タイプ別
  • 水晶・発振器のTAM:製品タイプ別
  • 通信用クロック用ICのTAM:製品タイプ別
  • 通信用クロック用PLL ICのTAM:タイプ別

通信用クロックの予測

  • 通信用クロックの予測:市場別
  • 通信用クロックの予測:市場区分別
  • 通信用クロックの予測:機能別
  • 通信用クロックの予測:製品タイプ別
  • 通信用水晶・発振器の予測
  • 通信用クロック用ICの予測:製品タイプ別
  • 通信用PLL ICの予測:タイプ別

予測の範囲:通信インフラ用クロック

ターゲットアカウント

  • システムベンダーの財務実績
  • 世界に進出するシステムベンダー
  • システムベンダーアカウントのプロファイル
  • ターゲットアカウントプロファイル:Cisco Systems
  • ターゲットアカウントプロファイル:L. M. Ericsson
  • ターゲットアカウントプロファイル:Huawei
  • ターゲットアカウントプロファイル:Alcatel-Lucent
  • ターゲットアカウントプロファイル:Nokia-Siemens Networks
  • 営業チームへのインセンティブ:収益かデザインウィン?
  • プライシングと利益の管理

製品の成功の要件

  • 重要性能仕様
  • エンド市場の要件
  • 水晶・発振器製品の要件
  • IC製品の要件

競合分析

  • 水晶・発振器関連企業
  • IC企業
  • PLL ICと水晶
  • 新興技術

通信用タイミング技術への投資:有利な投資である根拠とは

  • 通信用クロック:良好なASP・高い利益幅
  • 長期の収益ライフタイム

主要課題

  • ジッタパフォーマンス
  • 市場の断片化
  • 収益化に要する時間
  • 二次ソーシング
  • AVLの利用

主な市場機会

  • 次世代イーサネット
  • マイクロ波バックホール
  • LTE
  • ローカル発振器
  • クロック分配

総論:市場機会の有効活用

図表

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目次
Product Code: ComsTim_2011-19

Communications infrastructure continues to be the most attractive segment in clocking. It has the highest margins, and the longest revenue lifetime. It has the associated challoenges to meet spec that go along with high value added solutions.

The total available market (TAM) for timing products in communications infrastructure was $1.4B in 2010. The market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% to reach $1.86B in 2014. While proliferation has slowed in 2012 and going into 2013, as of the time of this report (March 2013), the trend is moving forward in a positive manner with new base stations and infrastructure implementations picking up by about 2%... China is looking to see the highest level of proliferation, followed by South America, APAC, Eurmea, and NAM.

Communications infrastructure is a completely different world than the rest of clock market. Compared to consumer and computer applications, communications infrastructure serves different customers in different markets and products must achieve a high technical bar to succeed in these applications. This is a key obstacle for entry, let alone consistency in delivery of precision and ultra-precision class timing solutions that truly add high value.

Communications end products are not as well known as consumer products and computers. You can't go to BestBuy or Yodobashi Camera store to examine and/or purchase your customer's end product. Block diagrams are also harder to come by. It takes deep applications knowledge to understand what timing products to make and extensive market experience to understand where to invest.

New trends in 2013 include more integration of timing functions BY the suppliers - this means integration of the fanout/distribution buffer and potentially the resonator, oscillator, frequency generator(s) and a mix of I/O types from a single packaged solution. An example is VoIP clock tree's which are typically implemented with an oscillator or synthesizer (using and external xtal) at 125MHz with better than 100ppm, with low phase noise of <1ps RMS (integrated from 1.875MHz to 20 MHz), followed by a fanout/distribution buffer with anywhere from 4 to 22 outputs in LVCMOS... this can become a fully integrated solution IF the supplier uses the fanout buffer package thus enabling the customer without a change in the current pcb - a very attractive proposition...

This is exactly why we have developed this report. To help to enable our client's success, this report will:

  • map out the industry - datacom, wireline, and wireless - provide equipment segmentation, block diagrams, and examples of real use and trends,
  • identify major system vendors and accounts to focus on, describe their key issues including financial performance, product lines, competitive issues, and procurement strategies, design locations,
  • quantify the market for quartz and IC products, segment the market by end application, function, and product type, and forecast consumption through 2014
  • identify key product requirements for ICs and oscillator modules, including technical specifications and product definition details,
  • analyze quartz and IC suppliers and their products, including the battle between IC and oscillator module companies,
  • identify key issues and opportunities for timing vendors, and
  • explain why we believe communications infrastructure is a good opportunity for clock and timing component vendors

This report should be considered as a deep dive into the Communications needs for high valued Timing solutions, and is an adjunct to our main Semiconductor Timing MarketScape reporting and Analysis. Our goal is to enable our clients to succeed in this lucrative and complex market. This is the second edition of this specialzed report. Please give us feedback so we cancontinue to improve upon this report in future editions.

Reference Sources Include:

  • Carriers: AT&T, China Telecom, KDDI, NTT, Verizon
  • System Vendors: Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia-Siemens Networks, Juniper, Ciena, Brocade, NEC, Fujitsu, Symmetricom
  • Standards Bodies: ANSI, ETSI, IEEE, ITU, NIST, Telecordia
  • IC Vendors: IDT, Analog Devices, Maxim, National Semiconductor, Silicon Labs, Broadcom, ZarLink, Semtech, Pericom, Texas Instruments, On Semiconductor, ST Microelectronics
  • Module Manufacturers: Epson Toyocom, KDS, NDK, Rakon, Raltron, Vectron
  • Market Research: Dell'Oro, Gartner/Dataquest, IDC, Infonetics, InStat, Oppenheimer & Co., Ovum-RHK, U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Table of Contents

  • Preface
  • Table of Contents
  • List of Figures
  • List of Tables
  • List of Equations
    • Definition
    • Mesh networks for wireless backhaul
    • Open solutions: using many connections as a backhaul
    • Moving from wireless backhaul to wired (superior) connections
      • Exception: Microwave superior to copper in some high-tower applications
      • Wiring issues
      • Hardware issues
      • Software issues
    • Cell towers moving from microwave to fiber optic
    • Very long range (including submarine) networks
  • Industry Structure
    • Overview
    • Long-Term Growth
    • What Drives Traffic Growth?
      • Smart Phones Multiply Internet Traffic
      • Video Increases Bandwidth Consumption
    • More Traffic Requires Improved Timing Technology
  • How are 4G and LTE Related?
    • The Difference between 4G and LTE:
    • Frequencies Associated with Different Regions:
    • Data Transfer Speeds for Various Implementations of the Current Standards
    • Support For Voice
    • What is GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications)?
  • Internet Security
  • Communications Infrastructure Equipment Classification
  • Enterprise Networking
  • Enterprise Networking Equipment Segmentation
  • Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches
    • Enterprise (Ethernet) Switch Block Diagram
    • Line Card and Switch Card Functions
    • Example Enterprise (Ethernet) Switches
  • Storage Networking
  • Evolution of Data Center Network Architecture
  • Efficiency of Serving Enterprise Markets for Timing Vendors
  • Carrier Wireline Network
    • Carrier Wireline Equipment Segmentation
    • Optical Networking
      • SONET/SDH ADMs and MSPPs
      • Synchronization Subsystems for Wireline Networks
      • Building Integrated Timing Supplies
      • Bandwidth Management
      • DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing) Systems
    • IP Routers
    • Fixed Broadband Access Equipment
      • DSLAMs
      • CMTS & EdgeQAM
      • FTTH
    • Carrier Wireline Opportunity Summary
  • Carrier Wireless Network
    • Wireless Base Stations
      • Baseband Unit
      • Clock Tree for Baseband Unit
      • Radio Unit
      • Clock Tree for Radio Unit
      • Base Station Opportunity Window
    • Point-to-Point Microwave Radios for Cellular Backhaul
      • Ethernet Radios Decrease Backhaul Costs
      • New Technologies Required to Support Ethernet Backhaul
    • PicoCells and FemtoCells
      • Carriers Embrace FemtoCells Enthusiastically
      • LTE Delivers Data Where Fixed Broadband Cannot Reach
  • A reference point in time; 2010 Communications Clock TAM
    • 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market
    • 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Market Segment
    • 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Function
    • 2012 Communications Clock TAM by Product Type
    • 2012 Crystal and Oscillator TAM by Product Type
    • 2012 Communications Clock IC TAM by Product Type
    • 2012 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM by Type
  • 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast
    • 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market
    • 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Market Segment
    • 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Function
    • 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast by Product Type
    • 2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast
    • 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast by Product Type
    • 2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast by Type
    • Scope of the Forecast: Clocks for Communications Infrastructure
  • Target Accounts
    • System Vendor Financial Performance
    • System Vendors Go Global
    • System Vendor Account Profiles
      • Where the Design Locations Are
      • Procurement Strategies
    • Target Account Profile: Cisco Systems
    • Target Account Profile: L. M. Ericsson
    • Target Account Profile: Huawei
    • Target Account Profile: Alcatel-Lucent
    • Target Account Profile: Nokia-Siemens Networks
    • Sales Force Incentives: Revenue or Design Wins?
    • Managing Pricing and Margin
  • Requirements for Successful Products
    • Critical Performance Specifications
      • Phase Noise and Jitter
      • Power Supply Noise Rejection
      • Time Interval Error
      • Frequency Accuracy
      • Tuning Range
      • Frequency Stability: Aging and Temperature Coefficient
      • Rise Time
      • Duty Cycle
      • Delay Adjustment
      • Output Impedance and Matching
      • Power Dissipation
  • End Market Requirements
    • Ethernet Requirements
    • SONET & DWDM Requirements
    • Base Station Requirements
      • RU Clock Tree
      • BBU Clock Tree
    • Microwave Radio Requirements
  • Crystal and Oscillator Product Requirements
    • Crystal Requirements
    • XO Module Requirements
    • TCXO and OCXO Requirements
      • OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet
      • OCXO and TCXO Specifications for Wireless Infrastructure
    • VCXO Requirements
      • VCXOs for Base Stations
      • VCXOs for SONET & DWDM
      • VCXOs for CMTS/edge QAM Termination Systems
  • IC Product Requirements
    • PLL IC Requirements
    • Fanout Buffer Requirements
  • Competitive Analysis
    • Crystal and Oscillator Companies
    • IC Companies
    • PLL ICs vs. Crystals
    • PLL Technology Improvements Spawn Application-Specific IC Products
    • How PLL ICs are Working to Displace Crystal Oscillator Modules
      • Of course, device pricing becomes a big factor, and we have found that many suppliers try to provide as much BPOM content as is possible in order to keep and maintain their position on the AVL.
      • Advantages of Integration
      • Programmable Solutions Enable Flexible Next-Generation Designs
    • How Crystal Oscillator Modules are Maintaining Their Share
    • Change Vector: Base Station Timing Chain Evolution
  • Emerging Technologies
    • Adoption of MEMS
    • Future of BAW
    • Future Role for Atomic Clocks?
  • Why Communications Timing Technology is a Good Investment
    • Communications Clocks: Good ASPs and High Margins
    • Long Revenue Lifetime
  • Key Challenges
    • Jitter Performance
    • Market Fragmentation
    • Time to Revenue/Time to Volume
    • Second Sourcing
    • AVL Leverage
  • Key Opportunities
    • Key Opportunity: Next-Generation Ethernet
    • Key Opportunity: Microwave Backhaul
    • Key Opportunity: LTE
    • Key Opportunity: Local Oscillators
    • Key Opportunity: Clock Distribution
  • Closing Remarks: How to Capitalize on this Opportunity

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Carriers and System Vendors Focused on Carrier Networking, both Wireline and Wireless
  • Figure 2: Enterprises and System Vendors Focused on Enterprise Networking
  • Figure 3: Internet Traffic Growth 1990-2015
  • Figure 4: High-End Devices Multiply Mobile Traffic
  • Figure 5: Samsung Focus phone, Microsoft operating system, available from AT&T
  • Figure 6: Motorola Atrix phone, Google Android operating system, available from AT&T
  • Figure 7: LG Vortex phone, Google Android operating system, available from Verizon
  • Figure 8: LG's Smart TV User Interface
  • Figure 9: LG's “Magic Motion” Remote Control
  • Figure 10: Journalists Watching Sony's 3D TV Press Introduction at 2011 CES
  • Figure 11: Samsung Shutter-Type 3D TV Glasses
  • Figure 12: NetGear ReadyNAS Ultra 2 Home Media Server
  • Figure 13: Fixed Equipment Size and Increasing Traffic Force Higher Capacity
  • Figure 14: Port and Backplane Data Rates, 1995-2015
  • Figure 15: Overall Communications Network Block Diagram
  • Figure 16: Enterprise Network Block Diagram
  • Figure 17: Enterprise Network Market Segmentation
  • Figure 18: Block Diagram of a Modular Enterprise Switch
  • Figure 19: Cisco Catalyst 6500 Modular Switch Product Family
  • Figure 20: Juniper EX2500 Fixed Enterprise Switch
  • Figure 21: Brocade 48000 Director-Class and 7800 Fabric-Class FibreChannel Switches
  • Figure 22: Evolution of Data Center Switching
  • Figure 23: Carrier Wireline Market Segmentation
  • Figure 24: Carrier WAN Central Office Block Diagram
  • Figure 25: Carrier Wireline Central Office Example
  • Figure 26: Block Diagram of a SONET/SDH MSPP or ADM
  • Figure 27: Alcatel-Lucent 1665 DMX Access Multiplexer
  • Figure 28: Ericsson OMS1460 Packet Optical Transport
  • Figure 29: Fujitsu FlashWave 9500 Packet Optical Networking Platform
  • Figure 30: Block Diagram of Zarlink System Synchronization IC
  • Figure 31: Block Diagram of Zarlink Linecard Synthesis IC
  • Figure 32: System Block Diagram of SONET/SDH ADM or MSPP Illustrating Time Synchronization Subsystem Implementation on Switch Fabric and Line Cards
  • Figure 33: Symmetricom 5071A Caesium Primary Reference Standard and TimeHub 5500 Building Integrated Timing Supply.
  • Figure 34: Juniper TCA8000 Timing Server
  • Figure 35: Ciena Core Director
  • Figure 36: Alcatel-Lucent 1696 Metrospan Metro WDM System
  • Figure 37: Cisco ONS 15540 DWDM System
  • Figure 38: Block Diagram of a Submarine DWDM Connection
  • Figure 39: Cisco CRS-1 Carrier Routing System
  • Figure 40: Huawei Quidway NetEngine NE-20E/20 Family of Edge Routers
  • Figure 41: Juniper T640 640-Gbps Core IP Router
  • Figure 42: Alcatel-Lucent 7330 ISAM (Integrated Services Access Multiplexer)
  • Figure 43: Rutland Telecom FTTC VDSL2 Cabinet
  • Figure 44: Cisco uBR7246VXR Universal Broadband Router
  • Figure 45: Verizon COO Lowell McAdam Announces FiOS Capacity of 18 Million Subscribers
  • Figure 46: Calix C7 Multi-service Access Platform
  • Figure 47: Evolution of Cellular Phone Standards
  • Figure 48: Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg Explains LTE Rollout Plans
  • Figure 49: Block Diagram of a Cellular Base Station
  • Figure 50: Ericsson RBS-6000 Base Station
  • Figure 51: Nokia-Siemens Flexi 3-sector RF module
  • Figure 52: NEC's PasoLink Microwave Radio
  • Figure 53: AT&T FemtoCell manufactured by Cisco
  • Figure 54: FemtoCell Network Architecture
  • Figure 55: Gary Oliverio, CTO and Founder of CradlePoint, shows off 3G/4G WiFi Router
  • Figure 56: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market
  • Figure 57: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by market segment
  • Figure 58: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by function
  • Figure 59: 2010 Communications Clock TAM ($M), by product type
  • Figure 60: 2010 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator TAM ($M)
  • Figure 61: 2010 Communications Clock IC TAM ($M), by product type
  • Figure 62: 2010 Communications Clock PLL IC TAM ($M), by type
  • Figure 63: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M)
  • Figure 64: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market
  • Figure 65: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment
  • Figure 66: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function
  • Figure 67: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type
  • Figure 68: 2011-2014 Communications Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M)
  • Figure 69: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type
  • Figure 70: 2011-2014 Communications PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type
  • Figure 71: Pareto of 2010 System Vendor Revenue ($B)
  • Figure 72: Top 16 System Vendors by Geography and Market Segment
  • Figure 73: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors
  • Figure 74: Purchase Volume vs. Time for a typical single major design win
  • Figure 75: Agilent E5052B Phase Noise Measurement System
  • Figure 76: PLL Synthesizer IC Measured Phase Noise
  • Figure 77: Power Supply Noise Injection Mechanisms
  • Figure 78: IDT ICS843003 FemtoClock Block Diagram
  • Figure 79: Maxim MAX3639 Block Diagram
  • Figure 80: Analog Devices AD9516 Block Diagram
  • Figure 81: Analog Devices AD9572 Block Diagram
  • Figure 82: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Simplified Block Diagram149
  • Figure 83: National Semiconductor LMK04800 Dual-Loop Clock Jitter Cleaner IC Detailed Block Diagram
  • Figure 84: Silicon Labs Si5324 Block Diagram
  • Figure 85: TI TRF3761 Block Diagram
  • Figure 86: ST Microelectronics STW81103 Block Diagram
  • Figure 87: On Semiconductor MC100LVE111 1:9 LVPECL Fanout Buffer
  • Figure 88: Pericom PI6C4853111 2:10 LVPECL Fanout Buffer
  • Figure 89: Analog Devices ADCLK944 1:4 LVPECL Fanout Buffer
  • Figure 90: Analog Devices AD9512 1:5 LVPECL Fanout Buffer with Programmable Output Dividers and Phase Adjustment
  • Figure 91: Texas Instruments' CDCM7005 5-Output Fanout Buffer with Programmable Dividers and PLL
  • Figure 92: Integration Example, Large Ethernet Line Card
  • Figure 93: Base Station Radio Unit using High-Frequency VCXO Module
  • Figure 94: Base Station Radio Unit using Low-Frequency VCXO Module and 2 PLL ICs
  • Figure 95: Base Station Radio Concept using Dual-Loop PLL IC and Inexpensive Crystal
  • Figure 96: Symmetricom SA.45s Chip-Scale Atomic Clock
  • Figure 97: Chip-Scale Atomic Clock Construction

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Common Ethernet Clock Frequencies
  • Table 2: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market
  • Table 3: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by market segment
  • Table 4: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by function
  • Table 5: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Forecast ($M), by product type
  • Table 6: 2011-2014 Communications Clock Crystal and Oscillator Forecast ($M)
  • Table 7: 2011-2014 Communications Clock IC Forecast ($M), by product type
  • Table 8: 2011-2014 Communications Clock PLL IC Forecast ($M), by type
  • Table 9: 2010 and 2009 System Vendor Revenues ($M)
  • Table 10: Financial Performance of Top 5 System Vendors
  • Table 11: Key Facts: Cisco Systems
  • Table 12: Key Facts: L. M. Ericsson
  • Table 13: Key Facts: Huawei
  • Table 14: Key Facts: Alcatel-Lucent
  • Table 15: Key Facts: Nokia-Siemens Networks
  • Table 16: Integrated Phase Jitter vs. Integration Bandwidth
  • Table 17: Comparison of RiseTime Specifications
  • Table 18: Example Crystal Specifications for an Ethernet Clock Generator IC
  • Table 19: Example Crystal Specifications for a VCXO Jitter Cleaner IC
  • Table 20: OCXO and TCXO Specifications for SONET and Synchronous Ethernet
  • Table 21: Competitive Positioning between Crystal and Oscillator Module Companies
  • Table 22: Competitive Positioning between IC Clock and Timing Companies

List of Equations

  • Equation 1: Time Interval Error
  • Equation 2: Power Supply Noise Contribution to Deterministic Jitter
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