Research Report on China Cement Industry, 2010-2019
|発行||China Research and Intelligence||商品コード||336277|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 60 Pages
|中国におけるセメント産業 Research Report on China Cement Industry, 2010-2019|
|出版日: 2015年07月24日||ページ情報: 英文 60 Pages||
As an indispensible basic raw material industry for the development of national economy, production and construction, cement industry has become quite large with economic development. Since the beginning of the 21st century, cement industry has undergone a great transformation from a backward scattered mode of production to an intensive one with new technology and equipment, which has from one side demonstrated the rapid development of Chinese economy.
The economic imbalance between different regions has led to the unequal distribution and development of cement industry. Currently, a pattern of three belts, respectively Pearl River Delta represented by Guangdong Province, Yangtze River Delta represented by Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu as well as Bohai Rim represented by Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong, has taken shape in cement industry.
Cement output in China in 2014 was 2.47619 billion tons, increasing 1.8% year on year. In recent years, cement market in China has been in a state of fluctuation. At the end of 2010, in order to hit target of utility-based energy efficiency, the Chinese government switched off power, which resulted in the short supply and therefore a historical high price of cement in the peak season; In 2011, a consensus of controlling capacity and creating benefits was reached in the trade but influenced by the new capacity, the formerly high price started to drop since the middle of the year; In 2012, as cement capacity increased greatly, the price hit a new low before picking up at the end of the year; At the end of 2013, cement price recovered to an unexpected level just lower than that at the end of 2010 due to the low price of coal; In 2014, CEMPI in China dropped from 116.77 at the beginning of the year to 99.8 at the end of the year, decreasing 14.53% within the year. And CEMPI reached its peak of 116.64 in early January and its bottom of 99.45 in early September. Within 2014, CEMPI kept dropping. Specifically, the first quarter reported the largest decline of 5.18%, the second quarter 4.58%, the third quarter 4.63% and the fourth quarter a much smaller decline of 0.95% than the former three quarters despite being at the peak season.
New urbanization which boosts the demand for cement is an opportunity facing Chinese cement industry now. From the perspectives of lag degree, development space and policy tone, urbanization will be deepened fast in a long time.
It is estimated that 13 million people will be transferred to city for every one percent increase in urbanization rate. Suppose each person needed a housing area of 30 square meters, 0.39 billion square meters will be added. Suppose 0.2 tons of cement was needed for each square meter, 78 million tons of cement will be used for every one percent increase in urbanization rate. If various supporting facilities were counted too, the practical demand for cement will exceed 0.1 billion tons. Therefore, if urbanization rate rose from 54.8% at the end of 2014 to 65% by 2020 with about 0.14 billion people entering cities, the construction of residential houses and supporting facilities will come out with a demand of over 1 billion tons for cement.
Due to the large investment in infrastructure and local governments' concern about debt and capital, the growth in infrastructure investment is expected to slow down in the next few years. In 2014, about 1.8 billion square meters of house were newly built by real estate developers, decreasing 10.74% compared with 2013. And it is estimated that the growth in real estate investment will slow down too. On the whole, infrastructure investment in 2013-2014 new projects and projects under construction will continue in the near future. Besides, the shanty town transformation, low-cost housing construction and promotion of urbanization all support the demand for cement. Meanwhile, it is also possible for the Chinese government to increase fixed asset investment so as to stimulate economic growth.
Cement industry is expected to recover its prosperity in the next few years. Besides, as structural adjustment has completed i.e. new dry process accounts for over 95% of the capacity and production line with a daily output of over 5000 tons occupies over 60% of new dry production line, both labor productivity and enterprise performance improved greatly, which fastens the development of cement industry.
As China is now at the phase of economic transformation and upgrading, there are many investment opportunities in the cement industry with the integrative development of industrialization, informatization, new urbanization and agricultural modernization.
(8.2-8.10. are Structured the Same as 8.1)