Research Report on China Polysilicon Industry, 2015-2019
|発行||China Research and Intelligence||商品コード||305176|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 60 Pages
|中国の多結晶シリコン産業 Research Report on China Polysilicon Industry, 2015-2019|
|出版日: 2015年07月10日||ページ情報: 英文 60 Pages||
中国の多結晶シリコン市場は寡占化が進み、2014年5月末現在の製造企業数は、2011年の80社から30社に集約されています。2013年の国内生産量は82,000トンで、業界第一は生産量を前年比36.1%増の5万440トンに引き上げたGCL Silicon Technology Holdings Inc.（GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited傘下）。国内産業保護に向けた外国製品への関税政策も、国内生産からの供給過剰により価格が下落傾向にあるため、収益性が低下しています。
By the end of 2014, the number of polysilicon manufacturers in China has reduced from over 80 in 2011 to about 20 with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings and China Silicon Corporation Ltd dominating the market. In 2014, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings of Golden Concord Holdings Limited ranked first in polysilicon output which was 66,876 tons, increasing 32.6% year on year.
The cost of production of local polysilicon enterprises is higher than international level, which means that profits can only be made when polysilicon is sold at a relatively high price. However, as the price of polysilicon gradually drops, the profit rate of local enterprises declines too.
The Chinese government has issued the Industrial Access Conditions for Polysilicon which states that the size of solar-grade project shall be larger than 3,000 tons per year and that of semiconductor-grade project 1,000 tons per year. Besides, for solar-grade project, the comprehensive energy consumption must be less than 200 kilowatt-hour per kilogram. As to environmental protection, not only the water cycle utilization shall be greater than or equal to 95%, but also waste water, exhaust gas, solid waste and noise all shall meet certain criteria. the Industrial Access Conditions for Polysilicon is expected to reduce the number of polysilicon manufacturers to 20 in China.
On Jan.20, 2014, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced its final decision of levying a 2.4%-57% anti-dumping duty and a 0%-2.1% anti-subsidy duty on US and Korea-made solar-grade polysilicon from now on. Therefore, polysilicon made in the US and Korea can only indirectly enter China through processing trade and intermediary trade. Influenced by oversupply in the domestic market, polysilicon price will hardly rise despite the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on the US and Korea-made products.
In 2014, 102, 177 tons of polysilicon were imported into China, increasing a record-setting 26.7% year on year, among which 87,065 tons came from Korea, the US and Germany, accounting for 85.2% of the sum. Specifically, 35,743 tons (35.0% of the sum) came from Korea, 21,079 tons (20.6% of the sum) from the US and 30,243 tons (29.6% of the sum) from Germany. Besides, 15,111 tons were imported from other regions which accounted for 14.8% of the total import.
The potential demand for photovoltaic is expected to be large in developed countries like the US and Japan as well as in such emerging market as China in the next few years. And consumption could hopefully facilitate polysilicon production in the world. The photovoltaic cell output in the world is expected to keep an annual growth rate of over 10% in the next few years. In 2014, the increasing power capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic in China was 10.60 million kilowatt, accounting for a quarter of total new capacity in the world and one third of photovoltaic modules output in China. Besides, 8.55 million kilowatt photovoltaic power station and 2.05 million kilowatt distributed power station were added too.
As the downstream market keeps expanding, the demand for polysilicon increases gradually, which drives the growth of its production. Since imported polysilicon can avoid China's anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties through processing trade, less competitive local manufacturers can only be eliminated from the market, which increases the industrial concentration in China.
The demand for polysilicon will still grow in China, indicating broad prospects and enormous opportunities. However, since the polysilicon industry still faces risks caused by policy, market and international trade at its developing stage, investors need to be careful when they enter the Chinese market.
(5.2-2.15. are Structured the Same as 5.1)