Research Report on Wheat Industry in China, 2016-2020
|発行||China Research and Intelligence||商品コード||289623|
|出版日||ページ情報||英文 60 Pages
|中国の小麦産業の分析 Research Report on Wheat Industry in China, 2016-2020|
|出版日: 2016年04月26日||ページ情報: 英文 60 Pages||
Wheat is not only one of the major grain varieties around the world, but also an important crop in China. China is the largest wheat producer as well as the largest consumer in the world. In 2015, output volume of wheat in China reached 130.19 million tons, increasing by 3.2% year on year. Wheat is widely applied in many fields. It can be milled into flour as food or used for food processing and wine brewing. It can also be used as pharmaceutical raw materials and forages.
Most Wheat is milled into flour in China at present. The total flour consumption keeps increasing steadily, and the wheat flour consumption remains stable. As Chinese economy develops and people's life improves, consumption of meat per capita and demand for dairy products and egg & poultry keep increasing, which reduces the demand for wheat flour as grain ration. At present factors pushing forward the consumption of wheat are mainly from the growth in industrial use.
Wheat is substitutable with corns when used as forages. For example, the price ratio of wheat and corns was 0.89 in 2011, decreasing by about 12% over 2010 and becoming the lowest ratio since 1999; the consumption of wheat forages was significantly promoted in 2011, reaching over 10 million tons. The price ratio keeps increasing since 2012 and has maintained above 1.
From January to May of 2015, due to the good weather in global major planting regions such as the US, Russia and Australia, international wheat prices constantly slipped. In August wheat prices dropped faster as a result of the precipitous decline in global financial market. In October wheat prices rebounded owing to the dry weather in planting regions of Europe and Russia. After that, prices were back in slight decline. In December, Chicago wheat spot price stood at 176 USD/ton, down by 21% year on year while American hard wheat spot price was 194 USD/ton, decreasing by 19% year on year. With the rise of price ratio of wheat and corn, consumption of wheat as forage will witness an obvious decline.
As Chinese population continues to grow and consumption improves further, overall demand for grain will constantly increase. However, with the improved urbanization level and low profits of grain planting, the labor force that engage in agricultural activities keeps decreasing and the output volume of grains can hardly increase significantly. To encourage the development of grain planting industry, Chinese government has issued a series of polices, including "procurement at protective prices" which means the government implement minimum purchasing price in major wheat planting regions and rice planting regions. According to Chinese government, the minimum purchase price of wheat (Grade 3) in 2016 is the same as that in 2015, at 2,360 CNY/ton.
As domestic output volume of wheat cannot meet the market demand, China begins to import wheat in large volumes in recent years. In 2012, the import volume of wheat was 3.689 million tons, increasing by over 100% year on year. In 2013, the import volume of wheat rose to 5.5 million tons. From 2014-2015 the annual import volume of wheat averaged about 3 million tons.
Despite the fact that annual import volume of wheat in China differs largely, most of the wheat is imported from major import sources. Import from Australia, the US and Canada accounts for above 90% of the total import volume. Most of the imported wheat are quality wheat, including Canadian hard red spring wheat, Australian hard white wheat, American hard red winter wheat and American soft red winter wheat, which is not sufficient in China.
The import volume of Wheat in 2016 may exceed 3 million tons.
To provide more useful information to investors, this report conducts a complete and profound analysis on the development status of wheat planting and wheat processing industry in China, market operation of wheat industry, supply and demand of wheat, import and export of wheat, prices and competition in the wheat market as well as the future trend of wheat industry.
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