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Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast - 2013-2020. Vol. I Board-to-Board and Rack-Rack

発行 Communications Industry Researchers (CIR) 商品コード 119170
出版日 ページ情報 英文 132 Pages
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.05円で換算しております。
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光相互接続技術の収益機会:市場と技術に関する予測、ボード間およびラック間接続 Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast - 2013-2020. Vol. I Board-to-Board and Rack-Rack
出版日: 2013年08月12日 ページ情報: 英文 132 Pages




  • 現在のOIC市場における成長促進要因と課題のサマリー
  • OIC市場の注目企業6社
    • Avago Technologies
    • Finisar
    • Kotura/Mellanox
    • Luxtera
    • Reflex Photonics
    • Samtec
  • 予測のサマリー

第1章 イントロダクション

  • 本書の背景
  • 本書の基本方針
  • 調査方法と情報の出典
  • 本書の意図

第2章 現在および将来のOIC市場

  • OIC市場形成に寄与しているデータセンターとHPCに関係する3つの重要なトレンド
  • 帯域幅、プロセッサーのスピード、OICの必要性:ムーアの法則と並列処理
  • 今後予想されるデータ通信速度の急上昇
  • データセンターにおけるCPUとラック増設の動き
  • OIC市場の成長促進要因としてのサーバーとHPCのI/O
  • 装置レベルのビジネスチャンス
  • ボードレベルのビジネスチャンス
  • 本章の要点

第3章 OIC製品、マルチソース契約(MSA)、技術

  • 高性能銅線相互接続技術:進歩の限界
    • 電力消費量:銅線技術最大の問題
    • 物理的要因:製造と終端処理
    • 銅線技術のコスト面の課題
    • チャネル密度
  • 製品、MSA、OICに対応する標準
  • OICの進化
    • 光イーサネット:400Gbpsを超える高速ネットワーク実現に向けた動き
    • Fibre Channel:HPCとともに生まれた技術
    • InfiniBand
    • OICとPCI Express
    • 光バックプレーン、マザーボード、OIC
  • OIC製品
    • 終端前光学部品とMPOコネクター
    • MPOベースの並列光技術
    • 光ファイバージャンパー
    • OIC用のケーブル、ファイバー、コネクターを供給している企業
  • OICとしてのアクティブ光ケーブル(AOC)
    • CX4に代わる技術としてのAOC
    • 10ギガビットイーサネットとAOCの進化:2011年以降の動き
    • 40/100GbpsのAOC製品:2011年以降の動き
    • QSFPに代わる技術してのAOC
  • 光学エンジンとOIC
  • OCIの実現技術
    • 光集積化
    • シリコンフォトニクス
    • 新たなタイプのレーザー:シリコンレーザーと量子ドットレーザー
  • 本章の要点

第4章 OIC市場の今後8年間の予測

  • 予測方法
    • データの出典
    • 経験に基づく予測
    • 銅線技術の終焉
    • バリューチェーンの検討課題
  • 代替技術のシナリオ
    • 経済面および人口動態面の課題
    • 今後登場するビデオ技術の影響
    • 光技術の過大評価
  • 各種ラックベースOIC製品の今後8年間の予測
    • ネットワークトポロジーの課題
    • ラックベースOIC製品の有効市場の規模
    • ラックベースOIC市場における光ファイバーの浸透状況
    • 各種コネクターを使用したラックベースOIC製品の予測:光ファイバーコネクターとAOC
    • 各種ファイバー技術を使用したラックベース相互接続技術の予測
  • 各種ボードベースOIC製品の予測
    • ボード間OIC製品の有効市場の見積もり
    • ボード間OIC製品市場の予測:2013年〜2022年
  • OIC市場予測のサマリー




Much has happened to spur opportunities in the optical interconnect (OIC) business in the past couple of years. Demand on the data centers and local networks has accelerated as entirely new kinds of data traffic such as ‘3D video’, big data and social networking has begun to predominate. At the same time we have seen the rise of cloud computing, a networking architecture that fundamentally changes the way that computing is done.

Some observers believe that the current generation of I/O technology isn't up to coping with this change and on its current roadmap is likely to find itself squeezed increasingly by the new kinds of traffic and new ways of doing networking. Conventional I/O technology development appears to be lagging traffic growth and to make matters worse, power consumption of traditional copper I/O is inconsistent with the goal of ‘green computing’ and saving energy costs in data centers.

CIR believes that these trends will spur business for manufacturers of OICs and related products, who now face large addressable markets -- corporate servers and large routers -- where once they dealt only with niches. This report is designed to provide guidance to firms that are designing market strategies for future OIC markets, whether they be optical module and connector makers, fiber manufacturers or computing and telecommunications firms.

In addition, to showing how the markets for OICs will evolve, this report looks at the daunting challenges facing optical interconnection; primarily providing cost-effective optical technology in markets that are used to paying only minimal amounts for metal connectivity. Also included in the report is an analysis of the evolution of OIC technology including the role of AOCs in the optical interconnect space and the eventual shift to waveguide backplanes and other advanced optical technologies. In its granular eight-year forecasts, this report also quantifies how much those opportunities will be worth.


  • Includes an analysis of where the opportunities can be found for optical interconnect at the rack level, as well as in LANs, telecom equipment, storage, server clusters, and board-to-board
  • Shows how energy costs, the need for network security and content development will drive the demand for optical interconnection
  • Provides ten-year forecasts by type of interconnect, connector technology, fiber type and location in the network.
  • Offers an assessment of the product/market strategies of key optical interconnect firms

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • E.1. Summary of Current Market Drivers and Challenges for Optical Interconnection
    • E.1.1. Potential End-User Base for Optical Interconnection: Opportunities Expanding Rapidly
    • E.1.2. The Market for Optical Interconnection is About to Boom: 40 Gbps and “Big Data”
    • E.1.3. Board-Level Opportunities: Optical Engine
    • E.1.4. The End of Copper-Not Yet
  • E.2. Six Firms to Watch in the Optical Interconnect Space
    • E.2.1. Avago Technologies
    • E.2.2. Finisar
    • E.2.3. Kotura/Mellanox
    • E.2.4. Luxtera
    • E.2.5. Reflex Photonics
    • E.2.6. Samtec
  • E.3. Summary of Forecasts

Chapter One: Introduction

  • 1.1. Background to this Report
    • 1.1.1. The Market Bifurcates: Why Two Volumes
    • 1.1.2. Three New Drivers for Optical Interconnects: Power, Security and Content
    • 1.1.3. The Danger of Market Overshoot: Technology Change Moving Slowly
  • 1.2. Objectives of this Report
  • 1.3. Methodology and Information Sources for this Report
  • 1.4. Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Current and Future Markets for Optical Interconnects

  • 2.1. Three Key Data Center and HPC Trends Shaping the Market for Optical Interconnection
  • 2.2. Bandwidth, Processor Speeds and the Need for Optical Interconnects: Moore's Law and Parallelism
    • 2.2.1. Moore's Law and the Future of Optical Interconnection
  • 2.3. The Next Data Rate Surge: Coming Soon at Your Data Center
  • 2.4. More CPUs and More Racks
    • 2.4.1. Optical Interconnection in HPC and Exascale Computing
    • 2.4.2. Interconnection's Coming Big Data Boom
    • 2.4.3. Thoughts on Clouds and Interconnection
  • 2.5. How Server and HPC I/O Can Drive the Optical Interconnect Market
  • 2.6. Equipment-Level Opportunities for Optical Interconnects
    • 2.6.1. VSR Telecom and Optical Interconnection
    • 2.6.2. Optical Interconnection and LANs
    • 2.6.3. Optical Interconnects in Server Clusters
    • 2.6.4. Storage and Interconnection
    • 2.6.5. Optical Interconnect Needs for Rack-Based Systems
  • 2.7. Board-Level Opportunities for Optical Interconnects
    • 2.7.1. Board-to-Board Interconnection
  • 2.8. Key Points Made in the Chapter

Chapter Three: Optical Interconnect Products, MSAs and Technologies

  • 3.1. High-Performance Copper Interconnects: End of the Road?
    • 3.1.1. Power Consumption: Copper Killer
    • 3.1.2. Physical Factors: Fabrication and Termination
    • 3.1.3. Copper Cost Challenges
    • 3.1.4. Channel Density
  • 3.2. Products, MSAs and Standards for Optical Interconnection
  • 3.3. The Evolution to Optical Interconnection
    • 3.3.1. Optical Ethernet: Onwards to 400 Gbps and the “Terapipe”
    • 3.3.2. Fibre Channel: HPC Right from the Start
    • 3.3.3. InfiniBand
    • 3.3.4. Optical Interconnection and PCI Express
    • 3.3.5. Optical Backplanes, Motherboards and Optical Interconnection
  • 3.4. Optical Interconnection Products
    • 3.4.1. Pre-Terminated Optical Assemblies and the MPO Connector
    • 3.4.2. MPO-based Parallel Optics
    • 3.4.3. Fiber-Optic Jumpers
    • 3.4.4. Firms Offering Cable, Fiber and Connectors for Optical Interconnects
  • 3.5. AOCs as Optical Interconnects
    • 3.5.1. AOCs as CX4 Replacement
    • 3.5.2. 10GigE and the Evolution of AOC: Developments Since 2011
    • 3.5.3. 40/100-Gbps Active Optical Cabling Products: Developments Since 2011
    • 3.5.4. AOCs as QSFP Replacement
  • 3.6. Optical Engines and Optical Interconnection
  • 3.7. Enabling Technologies for Optical Interconnection
    • 3.7.1. Optical Integration
    • 3.7.2. Silicon Photonics
    • 3.7.3. Novel Laser Types: Silicon and Quantum Dot Lasers
  • 3.8. Key Points Made in the Chapter

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Optical Interconnection Markets

  • 4.1. Forecasting Methodology
    • 4.1.1. Sources of Data
    • 4.1.2. Forecasts from Experience
    • 4.1.3. Can this be the End of Copper?
    • 4.1.4. Value-Chain Considerations
  • 4.2. Alternative Scenarios
    • 4.2.1. Economic and Demographic Possibilities
    • 4.2.2. Impact of the Future of Video
    • 4.2.3. Overestimating Optics
  • 4.3. Eight-Year Forecast of Rack-based Optical Interconnection by Product Type
    • 4.3.1. Network Topology Considerations
    • 4.3.2. What is the Size of the Addressable Market of Rack-based Optical Interconnects?
    • 4.3.3. Penetration of Fiber Optics in Rack-Based Interconnection
    • 4.3.4. Forecast of Rack-Based Interconnection by Connector Type: Fiber Optic Connectors and AOCs
    • 4.3.5. Forecast of Rack-Based Interconnection by Fiber Type
  • 4.4. Forecast of Board-based Optical Interconnection by Product Type
    • 4.4.1. Estimate of Addressable Market Optical Board-to-Board Interconnection
    • 4.4.2. Forecast of Optical Board-to-Board Optical Interconnection Markets: 2013 to 2022
  • 4.5. Summary of Forecasts for Optical Interconnection

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

List of Exhibits

  • Exhibit E-1: Summary of Rack-Based and Board-to-Board Optical Interconnect Shipments: Revenue Generation ($Millions)
  • Exhibit 1-1: Optical Interconnection Components
  • Exhibit 2-1: Impact of Semiconductor Industry Developments on Rack-Based/Board-to-Board Optical Interconnection
  • Exhibit 2-2: Impact of Demand Side Trends on the Need for Optical Interconnection
  • Exhibit 2-3: Equipment Level Trends in Optical Interconnection
  • Exhibit 3-1: Factors Influencing the Use of Optical Interconnection Products at the Rack and Board-to-Board Level
  • Exhibit 3-2: Evolution of Optical Ethernet for Interconnection
  • Exhibit 3-3: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
  • Exhibit 3-4: Selected Optical Engine Firms
  • Exhibit 3-5: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
  • Exhibit 4-1: Size of Data Center by Number of Racks
  • Exhibit 4-2: Addressable Market for Rack-Based Interconnection in the Data Center, 2013-2021
  • Exhibit 4-3: Fiber Penetration of Rack-Based Interconnection in the Data Center, 2013-2021
  • Exhibit 4-4: Breakout of Rack-Based Fiber Interconnection by AOC and Traditional Interconnects, 2013-2021 (Millions)
  • Exhibit 4-5: Break Out of Rack-Based Fiber Interconnection by AOC and Traditional Interconnects, by Type of Connector 2013-2021 (Millions)
  • Exhibit 4-6: Market for MPO-to-MPO Interconnects
  • Exhibit 4-7: Market for MPO-to-LC Breakout Interconnects
  • Exhibit 4-8: Market for LC-to-LC Jumpers
  • Exhibit 4-9: Rack-Based Interconnect Market: Revenue Generation
  • Exhibit 4-10: Estimate of Market for Board-to-Board Optical Interconnects
  • Exhibit 4-11: Board-to-Board Optical Interconnect Shipments: 2013 to 2021
  • Exhibit 4-12: Summary of Rack-Based and Board-to-Board Optical Interconnect Shipments: Revenue Generation ($ Millions)
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