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中国のトウモロコシ栽培に対する干ばつの影響

Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China

発行 CCM 商品コード 308237
出版日 ページ情報 英文 41 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中国のトウモロコシ栽培に対する干ばつの影響 Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China
出版日: 2014年06月25日 ページ情報: 英文 41 Pages
概要

トウモロコシは中国の三種類の主要穀物の一つであり、この60年間に急速に収穫量が増加しました。今後も、飼料向け・工業原料向け需要の増大や高い収益率、政府の政策的支援で、栽培面積はさらに拡大するものと思われます。他方、気候変動に伴う様々な自然災害、特に干ばつがトウモロコシ収穫量に多大な影響を及ぼしています。地球温暖化や中国国内の環境破壊により、干ばつの発生頻度は今後より高くなるものと予想されています。干ばつの発生地域・時期・期間は毎年大きく異なりますが、一方でトウモロコシの栽培地域も無秩序に拡大し続けていることから、両者が重複した場合、干ばつによるトウモロコシ栽培への被害はより深刻化することになります。

当レポートでは、中国国内のトウモロコシ収穫量に対する干ばつの影響について分析し、これまでのトウモロコシ栽培面積・収穫量の動きや、近年の気候変動・干ばつの様相、干ばつによるトウモロコシ収穫量の被害(地域別・年度別)、政府・農民の対応、今後の見通しといった情報をお届けいたします。

第1章 エグゼクティブ・サマリー

第2章 中国国内のトウモロコシ栽培状況

  • トウモロコシ栽培の発展の歴史(1949〜2012年)
  • トウモロコシ産地の分布状況

第3章 干ばつ地域の分布状況

第4章 トウモロコシ収穫量への干ばつの影響

第5章 地方政府・農民の干ばつへの反応

第6章 気候変動に伴うトウモロコシ栽培の変化と将来予測

図表一覧

目次

Corn, first planted from the sixteenth century in China and now one of the three major grain crops in China, has witnessed fast growth in the past six decades. China's corn planting area is projected to continue expanding in the coming years, mainly driven by the robust demand from feed and industrial sectors, relatively high planting profit and strong policy support.

Climate change is one of the major factors influencing China's corn planting. Among all the natural disasters that affect corn planting, the impact of drought is considered the most significant. Under the global warming and depravation of China's ecological environment, drought occurrence in China is estimated to be on an uptrend in the future.

In China, drought usually occurs unevenly in different regions, seasons and years, while corn's planting area is sprawling irregularly during the past years. Accordingly, the overlapping or staggering of drought occurrence with corn planting by geographic distribution and seasonal distribution aggravates the impact of drought on corn yield.

In order to figure out the impact of drought on corn yield and forecast the corn planting in China, CCM carries out this research, namely Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China, through the following aspects:

  • Corn planting history in China from 1949 to 2012, including: changes of corn planting, planting area, unit yield, output and summarization of each decade;
  • Geographic distribution of corn planting from 1978 to 2011, such as: the division of corn planting area, the top planting areas and their share changes;
  • Geographic distribution of drought area in China
  • The influence of drought on corn yield, reflected in: comparison of geographic and seasonal distribution of drought with that of corn planting, correlation analysis between these two factors in China and in the top eight corn planting regions;
  • Local governments and farmers' reaction to drought
  • Change and forecast of corn planting under the climate change

Executive summary:

China, the second largest corn production country in the world, has witnessed great changes in its corn planting in the past six decades since 1949. The fastest growth of corn planting in China took place in the XXX, XXX, and XXX~now, with policy and demand as the two most important drivers. In these three periods, both planting area and unit yield of corn increased significantly.

Corn planting has become increasingly concentrated geographically in China. Among China's six corn planting areas, XXX and XXX, with favorable climate conditions like temperature and rainfall quite suitable for corn growth, are major corn production regions, taking up about XXX% of China's total corn planting area and more than XXX% of the national output.

Although these two regions have the largest drought affected areas in China (based on annual drought affected area averaged for years 1990~2011), the seasonal distribution of drought is XXX for corn growth, as it usually occurs in seasons when XXX. At the same time, rainfall in these regions is usually seasonally concentrated in periods XXXX.

However, though the seasonal and geographic distribution of drought in China is favorable for corn growth in the major corn planting areas, CCM's correlation analysis of drought impact on corn yield finds that drought has an XXXXXXX on corn yield in China on the whole. However, the significance of impact varies from region to region.

Although XXX, XXX, XXX and XXX ranked the top four drought affected areas in China, the correlation between drought and corn yield in these four regions is not that high compared with the rest major regions and China's overall level. Reasons for each region are different.

Besides, compared with other types of natural disasters, drought has the strongest correction with corn yield, that is to say, among all disasters, drought causes the largest damage to corn yield. That's because China's major corn planting areas are also areas with the largest drought affected areas, and drought is the major natural disaster threatening their corn planting.

In China, the central and local governments play a key role in combating against drought; while farmers' efforts vary according to the size of their farms. Usually farms with large and middle farms are more willing to take actions to counteract droughts, while small farmers aren't so enthusiastic in doing this.

Among the major factors influencing corn planting in China, climate change's impact is not so significant, but it does have some impact on China's corn planting. When only the climate change is taken into consideration, and if the drought affected areas in the coming years is below the average level of the past decade China's corn planting is expected to witness positive growth; while if it is well above that average level, negative growth is highly likely and drought resistant corn varieties will be more widely promoted in China.

XXX Commercial in Confidence.

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

2. Corn planting in China

  • 2-1. Development of corn planting, 1949-2012
  • 2-2. Geographic distribution of corn planting

3. Geographic distribution of drought area

4. Influence of drought on corn yield

5. Reaction of local governments and farmers towards drought

6. Change and forecast of corn planting under climate change

List of Tables:

  • Table 2.2-1: Six different corn planting areas in China
  • Table 2.2-2: Planting area, yield and output of corn in major regions of China, 2012
  • Table 2.2-3: Share changes of top eight corn planting regions in China by planting area, 1949, 1978, 2007 and 2012
  • Table 4-1: Seasonal distribution of drought in China's major corn planting areas
  • Table 4-2: Correlation between drought and corn unit yield in China, 1990-2011
  • Table 5-1: Irrigated areas of China's main corn planting provinces, 2011, '000 ha

List of Figures:

  • Figure 2.1-1: World corn output share by region, 2012
  • Figure 2.1-2: Changes of corn planting area, unit yield and output in China, 1949-2012
  • Figure 2.1-3: Planting area and output changes of major grain crops in China, 1949-2012
  • Figure 2.1-4: China's corn planting area change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.1-5: China's corn output change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.1-6: China's corn unit yield change over the past six decades
  • Figure 2.2-1: China corn planting area segmentation
  • Figure 2.2-2: Geographic distribution of corn planting in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-3: Geographic distribution of soybean planting in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-4: Distribution of corn and soybean planting area by share in China, 2011
  • Figure 2.2-5: Planting area changes of corn and soybean in China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-6: Corn planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-7: Soybean planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
  • Figure 2.2-8: Share of corn planting areas in total planting areas of corn and soybean in China, 2008-2011
  • Figure 3-1: Geographic distribution of annual precipitation in China
  • Figure 3-2: Distribution of humid and acid areas in China
  • Figure 3-3: Affected area by natural disasters in China, 1990-2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 3-4: Seasonal and geographic distribution of drought in China
  • Figure 3-5: Geographic distribution of drought in China by average affected area
  • Figure 4-1: Drought affected area in China's major corn planting provinces
  • Figure 4-2: Growth periods of Spring corn and Summer corn in China
  • Figure 4-3: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in China, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-4: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Heilongjiang, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-5: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Jilin, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-6: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Henan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-7: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Hebei, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-8: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shandong, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-9: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Inner Mongolia, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-10: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Liaoning, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-11: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shanxi, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-12: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Yunnan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 4-13: Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Sichuan, 1990-2011
  • Figure 5-1: Irrigated area changes in China, 1990-2011
  • Figure 6-1: Drought areas of China's eight major corn planting areas, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-2: Drought areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-3: Drought areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-4: Flood areas of China's eight major corn planting provinces, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-5: Flood areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
  • Figure 6-6: Flood areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
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