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中国の黄リン産業の将来性

The Future of Yellow Phosphorus in China

発行 CCM 商品コード 290177
出版日 ページ情報 英文 68 pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中国の黄リン産業の将来性 The Future of Yellow Phosphorus in China
出版日: 2014年07月24日 ページ情報: 英文 68 pages
概要

中国は世界最大の黄リン生産国ですが、近年は生産設備過剰に悩まされています。年間生産能力(2013年)は234万トンと、国内需要の3倍以上にもなっています。また、輸出量の落ち込みに対処するための製品高級化や、国内消費構造の変化(熱リン酸から三塩化リンなどへの転換)といった動きも生じています。更に、国内のリン鉱石資源が残り30年で枯渇することから、資源保全のための産業構造変化も必要になってきています。

当レポートでは、中国における黄燐産業の現状と将来展望について分析し、生産用資源の供給状況や、国内の生産状況(生産能力・生産量・価格など)、国内消費量と主なエンドユーザー、今後の発展の方向性などを調査・推計して、その結果を概略以下の構成でお届けします。

エグゼクティブ・サマリー

イントロダクション・分析手法

第1章 中国の黄リンの資源供給量

  • 電力
  • コークス
  • リン鉱石
    • 資源分布状況と埋蔵量
    • 採鉱量と消費量
    • 政策
    • 輸出量・輸入量

第2章 中国の黄リンの需給動向

  • 供給状況
    • 供給状況の概要(過去3年半分)
    • 地理的分布とメーカー
    • 業界が現在抱えている問題
    • 黄リン生産状況の改善
    • 最新技術
    • 競争戦略
  • 流通
    • 輸出状況
    • 価格
      • これまでの価格変動
      • 将来予測
  • 消費状況
    • 消費状況:概要
      • 全体的消費量
      • 地域別
      • 最終用途別
    • 市場の内訳
      • 熱リン酸
        • 消費状況
        • 熱リン酸産業の概要
        • 主なエンドユーザー
      • 三塩化リン
        • 消費状況
        • 三塩化リン産業の概要
        • 主なエンドユーザー
      • 他の産業(五硫化リン、五酸化リン、次亜リン酸ナトリウムなど)

第3章 中国の黄リン開発の予測(今後5年間分)

  • 黄リン開発への主な影響要因
  • 黄リン産業の将来予測
    • 資源供給量の予測
    • 供給量の予測
    • 需要量の予測

第4章 結論

第5章 中国国内の主要メーカーのコンタクト情報

図表一覧

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目次

China owns the largest capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in the world. In 2013, the capacity already reached about 2,340,000 t/a with a low operating rate. Overcapacity has been a big issue in the industry.

Even so, the export of yellow phosphorus is under restriction in China. In order to protect the domestic phosphorus ore resources and promote the development and structural adjustment of the domestic phosphorus chemical industry, China canceled the export rebate for yellow phosphorus and levied export tariffs on it in 2005. As a result, the export volume decreased obviously from 2009. Despite the small rise in 2013, it might not increase much in the long term. This may prompt the further processing of high value-added phosphorus chemicals in the future, which is beneficial for the upgrading and development of the yellow phosphorus industry.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that the remaining yellow phosphorus resources in China will be ran out in 30 years, so China is trying to protect phosphorus resources by take measures including levying resources tax on phosphorus ore, setting up entry criteria for mining, etc. These policies and regulations have inevitably influenced the supply and output of Chinese yellow phosphorus.

To show readers a deeper insight into China's yellow phosphorus industry, this report presents the following aspects:

  • Supply of resources for production of yellow phosphorus;
  • Production situation of yellow phosphorus, including capacity & output, manufacturers, price, existing problems in the industry, existing production technologies, production cost, strategy taken by enterprises, etc;
  • Consumption of yellow phosphorus and changes taken place in recent years;
  • Future development trends on capacity, output, supply of resources, consumption quantity and structure during 2014-2018 based on a large number of first-hand information and advanced forecast model.

Executive summary:

In 2013, there were about XX active producers and XX idle producers of yellow phosphorus in China, with the national capacity and output totaling XX t/a and XX tonnes respectively. The production is mainly concentrated in Yunnan Province, Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province and Hubei Province. Yunnan was the XX producer and XX consumer of yellow phosphorus in 2013.

The domestic output is mainly used internally. In 2013, the consumption volume of yellow phosphorus was about XX tonnes. Thermal phosphoric acid and phosphorus trichloride are the top two consumption fields, together taking up about XX of the total domestic consumption of yellow phosphorus in 2013.

Besides domestic use, China exports part of the yellow phosphorus. The export volume used to be large before 2011 but decreased afterwards. From 2010, it fell largely from XX tonnes in 2010 to XX tonnes in 2012. Despite the increase in 2013, the increment won't be large in the future. In terms of export destination, the US was the largest importer of yellow phosphorus from China in 2013, followed by Japan. The combined volume exported to both countries accounted for nearly XX of China's total export volume. The Netherlands and India ranked third and fourth.

On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus in China has been saw an uptrend during the past five years. It kept rising from 2009 to 2012 but fell in 2013. Owing to the overcapacity and a predicable weak demand, the price will still witness a downtrend in the coming few years.

  • Forecast on supply and demand

In the future, China will still restrict its production and export of yellow phosphorus to protect its phosphorus resources and develop the downstream industries. The overcapacity is estimated to get better, but there will not be big changes in the following few years. With the industrial adjustment, both the concentration ratio of the yellow phosphorus industry and the processing degree of yellow phosphorus will be higher. Besides, under the combined pressure from policies and regulations and market competition, the manufacturers have to adjust their products structure to build a more reasonable industry chain and seek for new technology to maximize their economic interests.

Under restriction on export and encouragement of promoting the development of phosphorous chemical industry, more and more yellow phosphorus will be used in its downstream industries. However, in the long run the development of wet-process phosphoric acid in the country will it will get a slice of the market of thermal phosphoric acid and thus exert negative influence on the demand for yellow phosphorus, while the demand for yellow phosphorus from production of pther phosphorus chemicals phosphoric acid will increase.

XX Commercial in Confidence.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

1. Supply of resources for production of yellow phosphorus

  • 1.1. Electricity
  • 1.2. Coke
  • 1.3. Phosphorus ore
    • 1.3.1. Reserves and distribution
    • 1.3.2. Exploitation & consumption
    • 1.3.3. Policy orientation
    • 1.3.4. Export

2. Supply and demand of yellow phosphorus

  • 2.1. Supply
    • 2.1.1. Summary, 2009-2013
    • 2.1.2. Geographical distribution & producers
    • 2.1.3. Problems existing in yellow phosphorus industry
    • 2.1.4. Improvement in production
    • 2.1.5. Technology introduction
    • 2.1.6. Competition strategy
  • 2.2. Circulation
    • 2.2.1. Export, 2009-2013
    • 2.2.2. Price, 2009-2013
  • 2.3. Consumption
    • 2.3.1. Summary, 2009-2013
      • 2.3.1.1. By volume
      • 2.3.1.2. By region
      • 2.3.1.3. By end-use segment
    • 2.3.2. Market segmentation
      • 2.3.2.1. Thermal phosphoric acid
        • 2.3.2.1.1. Consumption
        • 2.3.2.1.2. Overview of thermal phosphoric acid industry
        • 2.3.2.1.3. Major end users
      • 2.3.2.2. Phosphorus trichloride
        • 2.3.2.2.1. Consumption
        • 2.3.2.2.2. Overview of phosphorus trichloride industry
        • 2.3.2.2.3. Major end users
      • 2.3.2.3. Others

3. Forecast on development of yellow phosphorus, 2014-2018

  • 3.1. Influencing factor
  • 3.2. Forecast, 2014-2018
    • 3.2.1. Supply of resources
    • 3.2.2. Supply of yellow phosphorus
    • 3.2.3. Demand for yellow phosphorus

4. Conclusion

5. Contact information of major producers

List of Tables:

  • Table 1.1-1: Electricity structure of major provinces producing yellow phosphorus in China, 2013, million kW
  • Table 1.2-1: Export tariff on coke in China, 2006-June 2014
  • Table 1.3.1-1: Resources reserves of phosphorus ore in main reserves-holding provinces in China, 2013
  • Table 1.3.2-1: Evaluation on cut-off years and cost of exploiting remaining phosphorus ore in China
  • Table 1.3.3-1: Export quota for phosphorus ore in China, 2009-2013
  • Table 1.3.3-2: Policies and regulations on integrating phosphorus chemical industry in China as of June 2014
  • Table 1.3.3-3: Policies and regulations on phosphorus ore mining in China as of June 2014
  • Table 2.1.2-1: Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-2: Main manufacturers of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-3: Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-4: Main manufacturers of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-5: Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-6: Main manufacturers of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-7: Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in Hubei Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.2-8: Main manufacturers of yellow phosphorus in Hubei Province, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.1.5-1: Content of tail gas generated from yellow phosphorus production in China
  • Table 2.1.5-2: Substances and their concentration in wastewater generated during production of yellow phosphorus in China
  • Table 2.1.5-3: Camparison of settlement-oxidation method and closed-circuit method for treating wastewater generated from yellow phosphorus production in China
  • Table 2.1.5-4: Examples of utilizing tail gas generated from yellow phosphorus production in China
  • Table 2.1.5-5: Examples of utilizing slag generated from yellow phosphorus production in China
  • Table 2.1.6-1: Manufacturing cost of yellow phosphorus in China, June 2014
  • Table 2.2.1-1: Export tariff and export rebate for yellow phosphorus in China, Jan. 2002-June 2014
  • Table 2.2.1-2: Export destinations of yellow phosphorus from China, 2013
  • Table 2.2.1-3: Export destinations of yellow phosphorus from China, 2012
  • Table 2.2.1-4: Export of yellow phosphorus from China by manufacturer, 2013
  • Table 2.2.1-5: Export of yellow phosphorus from China by manufacturer, 2012
  • Table 2.3.1.1-1: Production and consumption of yellow phosphorus in China, 2009-2013
  • Table 2.3.1.2-1: Consumption of yellow phosphorus in China by region, 2013, tonne
  • Table 2.3.2.1.2-1: Comparison of different phosphoric acids in China
  • Table 2.3.2.1.2-2: Usage of different phosphoric acids in China
  • Table 2.3.2.1.3-1: Main thermal phosphoric acid producers in China, 2013
  • Table 2.3.2.2.3-1: Main phosphorus trichloride producers in China, 2013
  • Table 5-1: Contact information of main manufacturers of yellow phosphorus in China

List of Figures:

  • Figure 1.1-1: Output of electricity in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 1.2-1: Output of coke in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 1.2-2: Monthly ex-works price of second-level metallurgical coke in China, 2013-H1 2014
  • Figure 1.2-3: China's export volume of coke, 2009-2013
  • Figure 1.3.2-1: Apparent consumption of phosphorus ore in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 1.3.2-2: Comparison of consumption of phosphorus ore by downstream products between China and the world, 2013
  • Figure 1.3.4-1: China's export volume of phosphorus ore, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.1.1-1: Capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.1.2-1: Capacity structure of yellow phosphorus in China by province, 2013
  • Figure 2.1.2-2: Output structure of yellow phosphorus in China by major production province, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.1.5-1: Production process of electric furnace method for producing yellow phosphorus in China
  • Figure 2.2.1-1: China's export volume of yellow phosphorus, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.2.2-1: Annual ex-works price of yellow phosphorus in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.2.2-2: Monthly ex-works price of yellow phosphorus in China, 2012-H1 2014
  • Figure 2.3-1: Industrial chain of yellow phosphorus in China, 2013
  • Figure 2.3.1.2-1: Consumption share of yellow phosphorus in tonnage in China by region, 2013
  • Figure 2.3.1.3-1: Consumption of yellow phosphorus in China by downstream industry, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.3.1.3-2: Consumption structure of yellow phosphorus in China by downstream industry, 2013
  • Figure 2.3.2.1.1-1: Consumption of yellow phosphorus in production of thermal phosphoric acid in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 2.3.2.2.1-1: Consumption of yellow phosphorus in phosphorus trichloride in China, 2009-2013
  • Figure 3.2.2-1: Forecast on capacity and output of yellow phosphorus in China, 2014-2018
  • Figure 3.2.3-1: Forecast on demand for yellow phosphorus in China, 2014-2018
  • Figure 3.2.3-2: Forecast on demand for yellow phosphorus in China by downstream industry, 2014-2018
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