India Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017
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BMI View: The implementation of GST and lingering impact of demonentisation has negatively influenced confidence in the most recent quarter, ending June 2017. However, slowing inflation, a robust economy and still high confidence should overcome these short-term challenges to see another strong year of consumption growth, although down slightly form 2016. As a result, it remains one of the fastest-growing markets in the world.
We expect the Indian economy to remain the fastest growing major economy in Asia owing to robust manufacturing and services sectors, as well support from an accommodative monetary policy by the central bank. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth of 6.9% for FY2016/17 (April-March). We are also bullish on the immediate outlook for consumer spending, projecting real growth in private final consumption in 2017 to reach 7.8% and 6.0% in 2018. This remains slightly lower than highs recorded over the last decade, but it is certainly a positive story given the size of the consumer market, and in comparison with global peers.