中国の医薬品・医療産業（四半期更新レポート）

経済の減速にもかかわらず、中国では多くの外資系製薬企業が、2桁の成長率で収益を伸ばし続けています。人口の高齢化、個人資産の増加、医療への政府の支援策といった要因により、海外投資家は、中国の医薬品・医療産業へ今後も投資し続けると予測されます。

当レポートでは、中国における製薬・医療産業の構造や最新動向について分析し、今後10年間の産業規模の動きを推計すると共に、業界の抱える課題（リスク）や将来的な収益機会（リワード）に関する評価、政府の政策・規制、マクロ経済環境、主要企業のプロファイルといった情報を盛り込んでお届けします。

BMIの見解

SWOT分析

• 政治
• 経済
• 業務運営リスク

産業予測

• 医薬品市場の予測
• 医療市場の予測
• 処方薬市場の予測
• 特許薬市場の予測
• ジェネリック医薬品市場の予測
• 一般用(OTC)医薬品市場の予測
• 医薬品の対外貿易予測
• BMIの予測シナリオに関する主なリスク

マクロ経済予測

• 経済活動

産業のリスク／リワード・レーティング

• アジア太平洋地域：リスク／リワード・レーティング
• 中国：リスク／リワード・レーティング
  • リワード
  • リスク

市場概況

業界の傾向と発展

• 疫学
• 医療部門
• 研究開発(R&D)
• 治験
• バイオテクノロジー部門

規制の発展

• 規制の体制
• 知的所有権に関する課題
• 価格決定の体制
• 医療費償還の体制

競争環境

• 研究開発指向型産業
• ジェネリック医薬品メーカー
• 医薬品の卸売業
• 近年の動向
• 漢方薬

企業プロファイル

• AstraZeneca
• Bayer
• China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
• Eli Lilly
• GlaxoSmithKline
• North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
• Novartis
• Merck & Co
• Merck KGaA
• Pfizer
• Roche
• Sanofi
• Shanghai Pharmaceutical
• Sinopharm

人口構造の予測

用語集

分析手法

• 医薬品支出額の予測モデル
• 医療費の予測モデル
• 分析手法に関する注記
• リスク／リワード・レーティングの手法
• 指標の概要
• 指標のウェイト付け

BMI View: China will become a leading medical research hub within the Asia Pacific region. This will be largely led by multinational pharmaceutical firms as they seek to tap the large talent pool within the country and develop treatments 'in China, for China'. The local industry, while still largely focused on generic drugs, has started to shift towards developing innovative treatments. Together with the partnerships formed with multinational drugmakers, investments into research by Chinese firms will grow and contribute to the country's flourishing drug discovery sector.

Headline Expenditure Projections

• Pharmaceuticals: CNY688bn (USD109bn) in 2015 to CNY768bn (USD116bn) by 2016; +11.7% in local currency terms and +5.6% in USD terms.

• Healthcare: CNY3,965bn (USD631bn) in 2015 to CNY4,451bn (USD670bn) in 2015; +12.3% in local currency and +6.2% in USD terms.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View

• Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020)

SWOT

Industry Forecast

• Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• Healthcare Market Forecast
  • Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
  • Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)
  • Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• Prescription Drug Market Forecast
  • Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• Patented Drug Market Forecast
  • Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• Generic Drug Market Forecast
  • Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• China
  • Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020)

• Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2020)
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2014-2020)

Industry Risk/Reward Index

• Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016
• China Risk/Reward Index
  • Rewards
  • Risks

Regulatory Review

• Regulatory Regime
  • Table: Important China GMP Deadlines

• Intellectual Property Issues
• Pricing Regime
• Reimbursement Regime
• China - 13^th Five-Year Plan To Reinforce Existing Trends

Market Overview

• Healthcare Sector
  • Table: Healthcare Resources (China 2010-2015)
  • Table: Healthcare Personnel (China 2010-2015)
  • Table: Healthcare Activity (China 2010-2015)

• Research & Development
  • Table: Selected List Of MNC With R&D Bases In China
  • Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In R&D Operations In China

• Clinical Trials

• Epidemiology
  • Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In China

Competitive Landscape

• Research-Based Industry
  • Table: Companies Represented by RDPAC
  • Table: Multinational Market Activity

• Generic Drugmakers
• Pharmaceutical Distribution

Company Profile

• AstraZeneca
• Bayer
• China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group
• Eli Lilly
• GlaxoSmithKline
• North China Pharmaceutical Corporation
• Novartis
• Merck & Co
• Merck KGaA
• Pfizer
• Roche
• Sanofi
• Shanghai Pharmaceutical
• Sinopharm

13^th Five Year Plan

• 13^th Five-Year Plan: Key Points
  • Summary Of Contents
  • Chapter 1: Overview
    • Table: Targets
  • Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development
  • Chapter 3: Economic Institutions
  • Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector
  • Chapter 5: Industries
  • Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy
  • Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network
  • Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation
  • Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development
  • Chapter 10: Environmental Protection
  • Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up
  • Others:

Demographic Forecast

• Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
• Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
• Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
• Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
• Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)

Glossary

Methodology

• Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
• Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
• Notes On Methodology
• Risk/Reward Index Methodology
• Index Overview
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
• Indicator Weightings