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カントリーリスクレポート - タイ

Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203091
出版日 ページ情報 英文 71 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.91円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - タイ Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日: 2019年10月25日 ページ情報: 英文 71 Pages
概要

タイの実質DGPは、米中の間で続く貿易戦争と投資見通しの悪化によって冷え込むことが予測されています。社会的不透明性によっていくつかリスクがもたらされますが、国の憲法は選挙結果に関わらず政治的な持続性を保つ必要があります。12月19日に開催された金融政策会議で、政策金利を25ポイント引き上げ1.75%に設定したことを受けて、2019年にタイ銀行の金利は据え置かれることが予測されます。経済成長の鈍化、目標を下回るインフレ、金融の安定性に対する懸念などが、2019年を通じて金融政策の現状維持をもたらす見込みです。

当レポートでは、タイのカントリーリスクについて調査し、済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 予測の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWO分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 2018年第3四半期のGDPは2019年の外的課題の前兆となる
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 対外貿易投資の見通し
  • タイの堅調な対外財政は減少傾向にもかかわらず、通貨バーツを支える
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • タイ銀行の2018年の金利引き上げに対するフォローアップは無し
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 通貨予測
  • 基盤が強固するにつれバーツは次第に上昇する
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより発表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 2028年までのタイ経済
  • 政治的不確実性と主な成長障壁
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 総選挙が遅れタイの政治的混乱が高まる
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 政治的勢力を維持する軍
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 世界的な成長へのマイナスリスク
  • 索引
目次
Product Code: CFTH_20200101

Executive Summary:

We believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. Therefore, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having previously expected a stronger pickup in growth to 3.5%.

We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.50% through 2019, but now forecast a further cut in 2020 to 1.25%. The key reason for the BoT's cautious ap- proach are policy constraints that we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters; namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, we note that the boost to the economy may be less than intended, given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. We expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe-haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the BoT. In 2020 we believe that the baht will test the resistance level set in 2013, as risk aversion rises and gold prices - which the baht tracks strongly - rise further. However, US dollar strength and some easing by the BoT in 2020 will curb appreciatory pressures, preventing a significant break below the 2013 resistance level.

We continue to highlight the risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties. The potential for the government to lose its majority remains elevated and policymaking could stall under rising disunity within the coalition. That said, we do not expect a return to the instability of previous years, with the military supporting the incumbent government and prime minister. Given that we had already factored in risks to Thailand's policymaking in our Short- Term Political Risk Score of 70.4 out of 100, we maintain our score for now, with risks tilted to the downside.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 16 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Stimulus Impact Key To Thailand's 2020 Growth Rebound
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds as in 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Of Thailand To Continue Facing Policy Challenges
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • Fiscal Packages To Target Short- And Long-Term Growth Boost
    • Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • THB: Modest Appreciation Ahead For The Thai Baht
    • At Fitch Solutions, we expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the Bank of Thailand
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Thai Economy To 2028

  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • Ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand's long-term economic growth trajectory. We forecast real GDP growth to average 2.9% annually between 2019 and 2028, making it a regional growth laggard over the coming years
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Policymaking At Risk From Slim Lower House Majority
    • At Fitch Solutions we continue to highlight risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Uncertainty Ahead, Despite Tight Military Grip
    • Thailand will continue to experience political uncertainty over the coming decade, posing a risk to the existing political order, despite the increasingly tight grip of the military government. The most likely scenario is a dysfunctional democracy with unstable governments, with the military playing a strong role. At worst, rising political violence could push the country towards civil conflict, but the probability has declined since the 2014 coup

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: THAILAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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