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カントリーリスクレポート - タイ

Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203091
出版日 ページ情報 英文 63 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=109.06円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - タイ Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日: 2019年08月21日 ページ情報: 英文 63 Pages
概要

タイの実質DGPは、米中の間で続く貿易戦争と投資見通しの悪化によって冷え込むことが予測されています。社会的不透明性によっていくつかリスクがもたらされますが、国の憲法は選挙結果に関わらず政治的な持続性を保つ必要があります。12月19日に開催された金融政策会議で、政策金利を25ポイント引き上げ1.75%に設定したことを受けて、2019年にタイ銀行の金利は据え置かれることが予測されます。経済成長の鈍化、目標を下回るインフレ、金融の安定性に対する懸念などが、2019年を通じて金融政策の現状維持をもたらす見込みです。

当レポートでは、タイのカントリーリスクについて調査し、済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 予測の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWO分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 2018年第3四半期のGDPは2019年の外的課題の前兆となる
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 対外貿易投資の見通し
  • タイの堅調な対外財政は減少傾向にもかかわらず、通貨バーツを支える
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • タイ銀行の2018年の金利引き上げに対するフォローアップは無し
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 通貨予測
  • 基盤が強固するにつれバーツは次第に上昇する
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより発表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 2028年までのタイ経済
  • 政治的不確実性と主な成長障壁
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 総選挙が遅れタイの政治的混乱が高まる
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 政治的勢力を維持する軍
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 世界的な成長へのマイナスリスク
  • 索引
目次
Product Code: CFTH_20191001

At Fitch Solutions, we are revising down our 2019 real GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously. Re-escalating US-China trade tensions and high inventory stock are the main downside factors likely to weigh on growth over the coming quarters. We expect the slowdown to be cushioned by favourable base effects and monetary easing, while the formation of a new government over the coming weeks will likely see supportive fiscal policies being adopted. A significant delay to government formation and further escalation in US-China trade tensions are the main downside risks to our forecast.

We still expect the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy interest rate by 25bps by the end of 2019. The central bank's tone remains dovish, and is now further worried by the impact of what it deems as strong currency appreciation on the external sector. Our view remains supported by two key factors; slowing growth prospects and inflation which is likely to underperform the central bank's mid-point target of 2.5%. The long delay in government formation is likely to lead to a delay in passing the next fiscal budget, worsening the situation.

Thailand's new government is gearing up to implement the populist promises in its manifesto, including income tax cuts and the extension of subsidies for public transport, fuels, and necessities. However, with specified details yet to be finalised at the time of writing, we at Fitch Solutions maintain our fiscal deficit forecast for 2019 at 1.9% of GDP and that for 2020 at 1.8% of GDP. We believe that farmers, in particular, may require yet more subsidies amid headwinds from drought and a strong baht.

We maintain our 2019 average forecast for the baht at THB32.00/USD, expecting the BoT to limit baht strength over the coming months to shore up the country's external sector. We also maintain our 2020 average forecast for the unit, which stands at THB31.25/USD, with the current account and more stable political environment likely to prove constructive for the unit over the coming quarters. However, uncertainty regarding the ability of the new government to maintain unity and govern effectively remains a key downside risk.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.
  • We have revised our policy interest rate for 2019 to 1.75% from 1.50% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 19 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution, could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth Revised Down On Re-Escalating Trade Tensions
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Resurgent Populism A Downside Risk To Public Finances
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Thai Baht Strength Unlikely To Last Amid Global Risks
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Thailand Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2028
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Thailand's New Government: Disunity Looms Large, But Low Coup Risk
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: KEY NCPO MEMBERS RETAIN THEIR PORTFOLIOS
    • TABLE: OTHER MINISTERIAL APPOINTEES
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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