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年間契約型情報サービス

マレーシア - カントリーリスクレポート

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203083
出版日 年間契約型情報サービス ページ情報 英文 69 Pages
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=108.27円で換算しております。
マレーシア - カントリーリスクレポート Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日: 年間契約型情報サービス ページ情報: 英文 69 Pages
概要

マレーシアの2018年の実質GDP成長率は以前の5.1%から4.6%に、2019年の成長率は4.5%から4.2%に下方修正されています。2018年の修正には予想を下回る2018年第3四半期の結果と、第4四半期でさらに成長が鈍化するという見通しが反映されています。個人消費を除くGDPのほぼすべての支出項目に対する懸念が2019年のマレーシアの成長に悪影響を与えるとされています。2018年下半期の業績と長引く政治の不透明性を背景に、2019年もマレーシア通貨に対する弱気な見方は続き、1USD当たり4.20リンギットから4.25リンギットに修正されています。

当レポートでは、マレーシアのカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主な予測の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • マレーシアの成長はさらに減速する
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • マレーシア国立銀行(BNM)は2019年に成長の鈍化とインフレに直面
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • マレーシアの2019年の予算:石油収入への依存が財政再建にリスクをもたらす
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 長期にわたる政治的不透明さを背景に2020年までにマレーシア通貨リンギットが下落
  • 10年間の予測
  • 2028年までのマレーシア経済
  • マレーシアの実質GDP成長率は4.4%に減速
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • アンワル・ビン・イブラヒムの人気を抑制するマレーシアの希望同盟(PH)
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • マレーシアの選挙政策は不透明なままに
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 不安定性が成長減速の要因に
  • 索引テーブル
目次
Product Code: CFMY_20200401

Our real GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain at 4.6% and 4.5% respectively. Private consumption is likely to slow slightly in 2020 due to the government's

fiscal rationalisation efforts but be supported by favourable base effects in 2019. Exports are likely to be the main drag on the economy in 2020, but this effect

should be mitigated somewhat by falling imports. Investment is likely to bottom out in 2020 amid government policies to encourage foreign investment and

to reduce housing oversupply.

We expect Malaysia's budget balance to come in at -3.4% and -3.3% in 2019 and 2020, improving from -3.7% in 2018. Our forecasts reflect our revised view that

the government's plan to consolidate public finances is credible, reinforced by Budget 2020, which while lacking in significant revenue expansion measures,

features restrained expenditure growth. Policies announced in the Budget are a mixed bag in our view. Positive measures include reducing fuel subsidies and

making them targeted, whereas cash incentives to hire local workers will introduce further distortions in the economy.

Our 2020 view remains for a 25bps to the Overnight Policy Rate to 2.75%, following the central bank's decision to hold at 3.00% at its final 2019 Monetary Policy

Committee meeting on November 5. Slowing growth as a result of external headwinds, benign inflation on a soft oil price outlook, as well as a widening policy

rate advantage against the US supply the motivation and space for a 25bps cut in 2020.

We maintain our average forecast for 2020 and 2021 at MYR4.25/USD and MYR4.20/USD respectively. Domestic political risks remains a key downside factor

to our forecasts, while we expect the US-China trade conflict to remain in a cycle of de-escalation and re-escalation, despite a 'Phase-One' looking set to be

reached, which is likely to weigh on the unit. We expect stronger investment and a less volatile US-China trade relationship in 2021 to see the ringgit stabilise

and even appreciate slightly.

Uncertainty surrounding the timeline for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to hand over the premiership to PKR President Anwar Ibrahim is likely to remain a

key source of discord within the ruling PH coalition. A continued lack of coordination in public statements regarding the matter between Anwar and Mahathir

is liable to result in escalating public spats between constituent parties of the coalition, making it more fragile and jeopardising its support. The UMNO-PAS

alliance, formalised on September 14, is likely to see race and religious issues play a bigger part in politics over the coming quarters and presents downside risk

to social stability and reform.

Major Forecast Changes

There were no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid

unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse

in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Maintaining Weaker Forecast For 2020 Malaysian Growth
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Malaysia: Widening Policy Rate Advantage Bolsters 2020 Rate Cut View
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Malaysia Budget 2020: Progress In Consolidation, Risks Remain
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE & REVENUE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken In 2020, Stabilise In 2021
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Malaysian Economy To 2029
  • Malaysia's Long Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Discord In Malaysian Government And Racial Politicking To Intensify
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Malaysian Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISKS
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS