株式会社グローバルインフォメーション
TEL: 044-952-0102
表紙
市場調査レポート

カントリーリスクレポート - マレーシア

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203083
出版日 ページ情報 英文 79 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=110.43円で換算しております。
Back to Top
カントリーリスクレポート - マレーシア Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日: 2019年10月25日 ページ情報: 英文 79 Pages
概要

マレーシアの2018年の実質GDP成長率は以前の5.1%から4.6%に、2019年の成長率は4.5%から4.2%に下方修正されています。2018年の修正には予想を下回る2018年第3四半期の結果と、第4四半期でさらに成長が鈍化するという見通しが反映されています。個人消費を除くGDPのほぼすべての支出項目に対する懸念が2019年のマレーシアの成長に悪影響を与えるとされています。2018年下半期の業績と長引く政治の不透明性を背景に、2019年もマレーシア通貨に対する弱気な見方は続き、1USD当たり4.20リンギットから4.25リンギットに修正されています。

当レポートでは、マレーシアのカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主な予測の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • マレーシアの成長はさらに減速する
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • マレーシア国立銀行(BNM)は2019年に成長の鈍化とインフレに直面
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • マレーシアの2019年の予算:石油収入への依存が財政再建にリスクをもたらす
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 長期にわたる政治的不透明さを背景に2020年までにマレーシア通貨リンギットが下落
  • 10年間の予測
  • 2028年までのマレーシア経済
  • マレーシアの実質GDP成長率は4.4%に減速
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • アンワル・ビン・イブラヒムの人気を抑制するマレーシアの希望同盟(PH)
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • マレーシアの選挙政策は不透明なままに
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 不安定性が成長減速の要因に
  • 索引テーブル
目次
Product Code: CFMY_20200101

Key View:

We are revising our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously. The revision reflects the stronger-than-expected average growth rate of 4.7% y-o-y in H119, as well as our view for private consumption to remain strong and for the deceleration in investment growth to bottom out. However, we expect net exports to drag on overall growth over the second half of the year, with exports likely to remain anaemic and imports likely to pick up along with investment. Malaysia's current account balance is likely to remain under strong external pressure from slowing global growth, which has been exacerbated by elevated tariffs between the US and China. However, we expect the goods balance to be supported by declining imports over the coming months, with the exchange rate acting as a natural adjustment mechanism. This should see the current account remain in surplus over the coming quarters. While Malaysia is still vulnerable to capital outflows during periods of risk-off sentiment, this vulnerability has been diminished by an improving liabilities composition in its international investment position. Our rate forecast for 2019 remains at 3.00% for 2019 and is now 2.75% for 2020 (revised down from 3.25% previously). The effect of growth headwinds from higher US-China tariffs should feed through in 2020 and slow growth, providing a motive for rate cuts. Inflation is likely to remain subdued in 2020 on account of lower crude oil prices and Malaysia's relative insulation from the African swine fever pandemic.

We maintain our average ringgit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, due to continued uncertainties from the US- China Trade War. Our view for sustained weakening in 2020 is based on our expectations of a US-China trade deal not being reached before the presidential elections in November 2020. Risks to our forecasts are weighted to the upside, due to the potential for a trade deal and tariff relief before November 2020, as well as geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushing up crude oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions expect the sex scandal allegedly involving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali to remain a key source of disquiet for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition. This scandal, as well as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's unilateral appointment of Latheefa Koya as Malaysia's anti-corruption chief, will likely intensify the rivalry between supporters of Anwar Ibrahim and those of Azmin, especially within the coalition's largest party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat. While our core scenario is still for Anwar to succeed Mahathir, we expect the situation to worsen in the absence of more concrete signals that the succession plan is intact and will be adhered to.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously.

Key Risks:

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwinding of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Revising Growth Upwards On Brightening Investment Outlook
    • We are revising our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

External Trade And Investment Outlook

  • Current Account To Remain In Surplus Amid Trade War
    • Malaysia's current account balance is likely to remain under strong external pressure from slowing global growth, which has been exacerbated by elevated tariffs between the US and China

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Negara Malaysia To Cut Rates In 2020
    • Our rate forecast for 2019 remains at 3.00% for 2019 and is now 2.75% for 2020 (revised down from 3.25% previously)

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE CATEGORIES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken Into 2020 Amid Trade War
    • We maintain our average ringgit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, due to continued uncertainties from the US-China Trade War
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Malaysian Economy To 2028

  • Long-Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • We forecast Malaysian real GDP to grow by an average rate of 4.4% over the next decade, slowing from the 4.7% (which was dragged by the 1.5% contraction during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009) seen over the past decade. This largely reflects lower growth in the working age population and productivity. The lofty level of household debt, and uncertainty regarding the fiscal trajectory present further risks, while continued ASEAN economic integration affords opportunities
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Continued Tussle Over Succession To Mar Politics
    • We at Fitch Solutions expect the sex scandal allegedly involving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali to remain a key source of disquiet for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
    • The landmark victory of the Pakatan Harapan coalition in the 2018 General Elections has caused a seismic shift in the political landscape, with the once-dominant United Malays National Organisation potentially languishing in opposition for several election cycles and the political parties in East Malaysia likely to constitute a new force in electoral politics. However, we do not expect a significant change in foreign policy with regard to China and the US

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISK
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
  • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
  • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: MALAYSIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top