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カントリーリスクレポート - インド

India Country Risk Report Q1 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203079
出版日 ページ情報 英文 91 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=110.43円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - インド India Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日: 2019年10月25日 ページ情報: 英文 91 Pages
概要

インドの実質GDP成長率は、ハイベース効果と製造業の衰退によって、前年同期の8.2%から7.1%へと大幅に低下しました。第2四半期の減速を反映し、2018年3月期の成長予測は前回の7.3%から7.1%へと下方修正されています。全体的なインフレ率はこれまでに予測されていたよりも緩やかになると予測されるため、インド準備銀行(RBI)はレポ金利を2018年から2019年の間は6.5%に、2019年から2020年の間は6.75%に設定する見通しです。原油価格の反動がインドの貿易条件の悪化を招き、ルピーは再び弱まると予測されます。また、政治的な不透明感、クレジットデフォルトスワップの拡大、財政悪化の可能性などもルピーの弱体化の要因となる可能性があります。

当レポートでは、インドのカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 政治およびシャドーバンキングへの逆風を受けインドの成長が減速
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • インドの金融政策の引き締めを後押しするソフトインフレ
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • インドの選挙費用の高さに起因する2018年の財政赤字
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 通貨予測
  • 短期的にはインドルピーが弱まる
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 2028年までのインド経済
  • インドの成長は期待に応えるのか?
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 州選挙での敗戦によってモディ首相の再選の見通しは暗い
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • ビジネスを重要視する立場へのシフト
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 変動性が成長の鈍化につながる
  • 索引テーブル
目次
Product Code: CFIN_20200101

Key View:

India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth. While we continue to forecast growth to pick up over the coming quarters, supported by reforms, fiscal stimulus and favourable base effects, we now expect the rebound to be weaker than before, given a subdued external and private consumption outlook. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in FY2019/20, down from 6.8% previously.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark repurchase and reverse repurchase rates by 35 basis points (bps) at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively. Given that the extent of monetary easing in the 2019 year-to-date still appears to be insufficient in lifting economic activity, we expect the RBI to cut its policy interest rates by a further 40bps by the end of March 2020. Subdued inflationary pressures, combined with an urgent need to provide further economic stimulus to support economic activity inform our view for further easing. Risks to our forecast are still weighted to the downside, as a poor monetary policy transmission mechanism in India could necessitate steeper interest rate cuts than we currently expect. We have revised our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20. We continue to believe that the government's revenue projections are too rosy, and this will likely see the government miss its goal of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3.0% by FY2020/21. The expenditure allocation of the full Union Budget remains consistent with the interim budget. Efforts to introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth over and above the interim budget appear to be lacking in the full budget.

We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar. Over the short term, a narrowing of real interest differentials with the US and a worsening terms of trade would put pressure on the rupee, while the central bank's focus on growth support would likely spur foreign exchange market interventions to limit rupee strength. Over the longer term, rupee overvaluation, higher inflation in India relative to the US, and periods of risk-off sentiment should exert downside pressure on the currency, although a possible further dovish turn by the US Federal Reserve could put a floor to this weakness. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for the rupee to average INR70.50/USD in 2019, but are revising our forecast for the rupee to average INR74.00/USD in 2020, from INR72.00/USD previously.

We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir. While not our core view, we see rising risk of military conflict between India and Pakistan, given the likelihood of an extended Indian military presence in Kashmir, and Pakistan's interest in challenging India's control of the region. China, an interested third party, is unlikely to materially intervene in the conflict as long as the Line of Actual Control separating it and India is respected. In light of ongoing elevated tensions between the two nations, we are revising our Short-Term Political Risk Index scores for India and Pakistan to 67.6 and 47.1 respectively out of 100, from 71.0 and 47.5 previously.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks To Growth: We expect slowing global economic growth to pose headwinds to India's Make in India campaign through slower foreign direct invest- ments growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there is also the risk of banking sector asset quality worsening following the central bank's revision to its stress asset resolution framework in June 2019, which appears to show a softer stance towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the sector. A high load of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets will reduce monetary policy transmission as banks, with a high level of risk on their books, would be unwilling to lower their lending interest rates in line with policy interest rates. Poor monetary policy transmission could see growth underperform our expectations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Growth To Record A Softer Rebound Over FY2019/20
    • India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth
  • TABLE: FDI REFORMS ANNOUNCED ON AUGUST 29

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Monetary Policy

  • Reserve Bank Of India's Easing Cycle Has More Room To Run
    • The RBI cut its benchmark repo and reverse repo rates by 35bps at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • India's Full FY2019/20 Union Budget Providing Little Stimulus On Top Of Interim Budget
    • We at Fitch Solutions are revising our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20
  • TABLE: KEY EXPENDITURE ANNOUNCEMENTS
  • TABLE: REVENUE SIDE MEASURES

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • Indian Rupee Weakness To Persist
    • We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Indian Economy To 2028

  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • Improving demographics, structural reforms and trade liberalisation in India during the 1990s set the stage for an explosion in the country's domestic savings rate, which, in turn, ignited economic growth in the 2000s. Going forward, favourable demographics and trade integration should remain strong tailwinds. However, should India's reform momentum continue to disappoint, the country could struggle to generate sufficient savings growth to finance its investment needs, with headline economic growth suffering as a result. With this in mind, we maintain a sanguine, if cautious, long-term growth outlook with a 10-year average real GDP growth rate of 7.0%
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • India-Pakistan Skirmishes Over Kashmir To Intensify, But All-Out War Unlikely
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • A Second Chance To Reform The Economy
    • The National Democratic Alliance's absolute majority in the Lower House bodes well for India's economic and political landscape over the coming decade. Continued reform momentum bodes well for further improvement in India's business environment, and we expect this to put strong tailwinds behind growth. The main challenges will continue to be tackling obstructionism from regional governments and traditional interest groups, and ensuring that future economic growth consolidates a politically moderate middle class

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: INDIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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