株式会社グローバルインフォメーション
TEL: 044-952-0102
表紙
市場調査レポート

カントリーリスクレポート - 中国

China Country Risk Report Q1 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203072
出版日 ページ情報 英文 71 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.33円で換算しております。
Back to Top
カントリーリスクレポート - 中国 China Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日: 2019年12月13日 ページ情報: 英文 71 Pages
概要

中国の経済成長見通しは2018年も依然として悲観的で、実質GDP成長率は6.6%まで下落し、2019年の成長見通しは以前の6.4%から6.2%へと失速しています。2019年も米中の貿易戦争が続くと見込まれているため、貿易と取り巻く外的要因は今後も成長に陰りをもたらすとされています。対外的な逆風によって雇用の損失が生じ、賃金上昇が抑えらえたため、個人消費の伸びは依然として抑圧される見通しです。金融政策の緩和、減税、インフラ支出の増加など、政府の支援が増加するにつれ投資の伸びはわずかに回復する可能性があります。

当レポートでは、中国のカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主な予報の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 貿易戦争による消費の停滞で2019年に中国経済はさらに減速する
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 対外貿易投資見通し
  • 貿易赤字と財政赤字の並存の強まりがリスクを高める
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • 中国の中央経済作業会議:成長支援への注目の高まり
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 通貨予測
  • 中華人民元の好機が目前に
  • 10年間の予測
  • 2028年までの中国経済
  • 経済再編による構造的な減速
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 2019年、中国国民の不安が広がる可能性が高い
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 索引
目次
Product Code: CFCN_20200101

We have revised our 2019 and 2020 real GDP forecast to 6.1% and 5.9% respectively, a reflection of our expectation for external headwinds to continue weighing

on the economy in 2020. Investment is likely to remain under heavy pressure as companies increasingly relocate away from China, and those which do not are

likely to postpone or shelve plans for renewal and expansion. We also believe private consumption and net exports will continue to drag, but less so, as demand

side stimulus measures and slowing imports are likely to cushion the impact.

We have revised our forecast for China's current account surplus for 2019 and 2020 to 1.5% and 1.0%. The revision accounts for a larger fall in imports than

we previously expected, which has helped to support the trade balance. We continue to expect China's current account surplus will diminish in future owing to

China's rebalancing towards consumption. We expect inbound portfolio investment to play a larger role in balancing the balance of payments accounts over

the coming years, as China gradually opens up its financial markets to foreign investors.

We maintain our forecasts for China's primary and final fiscal deficit to come in at 4.8% and 2.8% of GDP respectively in 2019. For 2020 we expect the fiscal deficit

to widen to 5.2% of GDP. We expect revenue collection to remain weak owing to tax cuts and slowing economic growth. Additional fiscal spending is also likely

given that Beijing's focus on stimulating growth amid a weak economic growth outlook.

We maintain our view for yet more monetary easing following the RRR cut announced on September 6, which will take effect in phases out to November. The estimated

CNY900bn liquidity injection from the 50bps broad cut and 100bps additional targeted cut will help support economic activity and financial stability. Continued external

headwinds from the US-China trade war is likely to see Beijing cut the RRR further and easier monetary policy is likely to remain in place over the coming quarters.

The yuan still faces downside pressure as we believe that a re-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China is likely despite the apparent detente. We

expect inflation in China to outpace that in the US through 2020 on the back of food inflationary pressures from pork shortages, but Beijing's willingness to

stabilise its currency would somewhat offset our bearish arguments. We are revising our average exchange rate forecasts to CNY6.90/USD in 2019 and CNY7.25/

USD in 2020 and 2021 to account from stronger-than-expected yuan performance in Q419.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our forecast for China's real GDP growth to come in at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020. We have revised our forecast for the yuan to average

CNY6.90/USD in 2019 and CNY7.25/USD in 2020. We have revised our forecast for China's current account surplus for 2019 and 2020 to 1.5% and 1.0% respectively.

Key Risks

Our yuan forecast assumes no lasting and comprehensive resolution to the US-China trade war in 2020 and is thus subject to upside risks.

Weak revenue collection could spur local governments to take on additional debt to fund development spending, which raises the risk of an unsustainable build-up

of debt. The State Council called for an increase in special purpose bond issuances to fund additional spending on infrastructure and other development projects.

This adds to the debt burden of local governments, which stood at around 20% of GDP in 2018 [excluding its off-balance sheet debt from local government financing

vehicles (LGFV)]. When Beijing undertook massive fiscal stimulus programmes after the 2008 financial crisis, cash-strapped local governments created opaque LGFVs

to meet economic growth targets. This not only undermined their competitiveness and profitability but also resulted in a significant increase in debt. While China has

introduced debt-for-bond swaps programmes since 2016, which allows local governments to swap their unofficial liabilities for government bonds, much of the debt

from LGFV remains hidden from their balance sheets.

China Country Risk Q1 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • China's Real GDP Growth To Come In Under 6.0% In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Falling Imports To Remain A Key Driver Of China's Current Account Surplus
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Slowing Economic Growth To Weigh On China's Primary Fiscal Balance
    • TABLE: REVISION OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Not The End Yet For China's Monetary Easing Cycle
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.China Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsMonetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Still Bearish On Chinese Yuan Despite Phase One Deal Rally
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Chinese Economy To 2028
  • Structural Slowdown To Span The Next Decade
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Hong Kong Rights Act A Key Risk To Trade Talks
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Major Challenges Over The Coming Decades
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATION RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CHINA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top