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カントリーリスクレポート - 中国

China Country Risk Report Q4 2019

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 203072
出版日 ページ情報 英文 69 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=109.71円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - 中国 China Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日: 2019年09月27日 ページ情報: 英文 69 Pages
概要

中国の経済成長見通しは2018年も依然として悲観的で、実質GDP成長率は6.6%まで下落し、2019年の成長見通しは以前の6.4%から6.2%へと失速しています。2019年も米中の貿易戦争が続くと見込まれているため、貿易と取り巻く外的要因は今後も成長に陰りをもたらすとされています。対外的な逆風によって雇用の損失が生じ、賃金上昇が抑えらえたため、個人消費の伸びは依然として抑圧される見通しです。金融政策の緩和、減税、インフラ支出の増加など、政府の支援が増加するにつれ投資の伸びはわずかに回復する可能性があります。

当レポートでは、中国のカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主な予報の変更点
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済的リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 貿易戦争による消費の停滞で2019年に中国経済はさらに減速する
  • 支出別のGDP見通し
  • 対外貿易投資見通し
  • 貿易赤字と財政赤字の並存の強まりがリスクを高める
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • 金融政策フレームワーク
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • 中国の中央経済作業会議:成長支援への注目の高まり
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 通貨予測
  • 中華人民元の好機が目前に
  • 10年間の予測
  • 2028年までの中国経済
  • 経済再編による構造的な減速
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 2019年、中国国民の不安が広がる可能性が高い
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • 索引
目次
Product Code: CFCN_20191001

We have revised our forecast for growth in 2019 to 6.3% from 6.5% previously, reflecting the more challenging external environment after the re-escalation

in US-China trade tensions in May. Our forecast remains above consensus estimates of 6.2%, and reflects our expectation for more aggressive stimulus from

Beijing and for it to feed through in H219. Besides continuing to support investment and exports, we believe that Beijing will soon announce and implement

demand-side stimulus, to attain the goal of increasing disposable incomes as announced during the National People's Congress in March.

We at Fitch Solutions believe that there are several contradictions within the Chinese economy that pose risks to medium-to-long-term growth. These contradic-

tions include: supporting growth vs de-risking; state-owned entity control vs market reforms; funding the Belt and Road Initiative vs a shrinking current account

surplus; fostering innovation vs discouraging dissent; and more.

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our primary and final fiscal balance forecasts for 2019 at 4.8% and 2.8% respectively. Support measures announced at the

National People's Congress in March, such as the value-added tax cuts worth CNY2.0trn, are likely to continue weighing on revenues. The likelihood of further

fiscal stimulus measures presents additional downside risks to the government's fiscal projections. In particular, demand-side stimulus measures could increase

expenditures or decrease revenues further.

China announced a new mechanism for setting the Loan Prime Rate, a key reference rate for banks in setting lending rates, which we expect to lead to lower

credit costs and an improved monetary policy transmission mechanism. However, the extent to which smaller businesses will benefit from this is likely to be

limited as their risk profiles are weaker than larger businesses, which will be reflected in larger spreads over the new Loan Prime Rate, implying higher borrowing

costs. That said, the generally lower interest rates should help to support slowing economic growth over the coming quarters, although this means that efforts

to deleverage the economy are likely to continue taking a backseat.

We at Fitch Solutions are dialling up bearish expectations on the yuan, due to the increasing likelihood of further escalation in the US-China trade war, which

has been the main driver of yuan movements since 2018. Accordingly, we have revised our 2019 average yuan forecast to CNY6.95/USD (from CNY6.85/USD

previously) and our 2020 average forecast to CNY7.30/USD (from CNY6.95/USD previously).

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • China To Roll Out Demand-Side Stimulus To Stabilise Growth
  • GDP By Expenditure
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Contradictions In Chinese Economic Model A Risk To Medium-Term Outlook
    • TABLE: SIX KEY CONTRADICTIONS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • China On Track For Wider Primary Deficit In 2019
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • China Deepens Interest Rate Reform, Benefits To Smaller Companies Likely Limited
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • China Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Yuan At Risk From Further Escalation In US-China Trade War
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Chinese Economy To 2028
  • Structural Slowdown To Continue Amid Rebalancing
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • US-China Trade War: Increasing Risk Of Still Higher Tariffs
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: VIRTUALLY ALL US-CHINA TRADE TO BE UNDER ADDITIONAL TARIFFS BY DECEMBER
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Major Challenges Over The Coming Decades
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CHINA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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