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カントリーリスクレポート - インドネシア

Indonesia Country Risk Report Q4 2019

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 180745
出版日 ページ情報 英文 61 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=109.71円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - インドネシア Indonesia Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日: 2019年09月27日 ページ情報: 英文 61 Pages
概要

インドネシアの実質GDP成長率は、2018年の5.2%から2019年には5.3%にわずかに上昇すると予測しています。一方で、成長は政府の強い支出とインフラ投資によって支えられる見通しです。一方、貿易や市場の不透明感の高まりはインドネシアの成長の勢いを左右すると見込まれ、リスクは下振れに傾いています。2月21日の金融政策会議ではベンチマークの7日間のリバースレポ金利を6.00%に据え置くことを決定したにもかかわらず、2019年のインドネシア銀行による金融政策の引き締めが続く見通しです。2018年の税制改革が功をなし、2019年のインドネシアの財政赤字は以前の2.2%から2.0%へ改善すると予測されています。

インドネシアの実質GDP成長率は、2018年から2019年にかけて、5.2%から2019年には5.3%へとわずかな上昇が予測されています。政府の力強い支出とインフラ投資によって成長が支えられる見込みです。しかし、貿易や市場の不透明感の高まりがインドネシアの成長に影響を及ぼすとみられ、リスクは下振れに傾いています。

当レポートでは、インドネシアのカントリーリスクについて調査し、経済的・政治的リスクの概要、SWOT分析、経済成長の見通しと動向、金融政策、市場予測、国内外の政治情勢などについてまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済リスク指数
  • 政治的リスク指数
  • SWOT
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 支出別GDP見通し
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • インドネシア銀行が近い将来保留に
  • 金融政策の枠組み
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • 選挙による財政健全化への取り組み
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 通貨予測
  • インドネシアルピアは短期的に安定する
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 2028年までのインドネシア経済
  • 強気の長期成長ストーリー
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • ジョコ・ウィドドが4月の選挙に勝利する可能性が高く、政策は継続する
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 見通しは改善されたが不確実性が残る
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通ネットワーク
  • 世界のマクロトレンドの見通し
  • ダメージコントロール:より緩やかな政策の変換が迫る
  • 索引テーブル
目次
Product Code: CFID_20191001

At Fitch Solutions, we are maintaining our forecast for Indonesia's GDP growth to come in at 5.3% for 2019. We believe that looser fiscal and monetary policies will

boost government spending and investment in Indonesia over the coming months. However, net exports will likely act as a slight drag on growth as Indonesia's

main trading partners face economic headwinds exacerbated by trade tensions.

We expect Indonesia to meet its fiscal deficit target of 1.8% of GDP for 2020, as outlined in the budget draft presented on August 16 and will mark a narrowing

from the 2.0% deficit which we forecast in 2019. Indonesia's 2020 budget continues to focus on investing in human capital and infrastructure, which we believe

will help to improve productivity over the long term. Given our expectation for higher GDP growth and commodity prices in 2020, we believe that the revenue

growth target of 9.3% is achievable.

We now expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% by the end of 2019, following a 25bps rate cut at BI's monetary policy

meeting on August 22. Given the slowdown in economic growth in H119, we expect BI to continue to focus on stimulating economic activity. A dovish Fed and

well-managed inflation will provide room for BI to cut its benchmark interest rate without placing too much strain on Indonesia's macroeconomic stability. That

said, we highlight that risks are to the upside in the event of a spike in volatility which would see the rupiah come under significant selling pressure.

We believe that Prabowo Subianto could likely join President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's coalition, which should help the government obtain a supermajority in parlia-

ment. The addition of Gerindra, led by Prabowo, to Jokowi's ruling coalition would help to reduce the polarisation resulting from the April presidential election

and allow Jokowi to push ahead with his reform agenda with greater ease. A partnership between Jokowi and Prabowo would also reduce the risk of political

Islam in Indonesia, which we have been highlighting for the past few months.

At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast for the Indonesian rupiah to average IDR14,350/USD, as we expect risk-off sentiment to remain elevated. That said,

terms of trade will likely improve as the prices of Indonesia's top two exports pick up, which will provide some support to the rupiah. For 2020, we maintain our

forecast for the rupiah to weaken to an average of IDR14,600/USD, as we believe that the unit will remain under pressure due to a persistent twin deficit, and

elevated inflation in Indonesia vis-a-vis the US.

Key Risks

Risks to our real GDP forecasts are skewed to the downside. A prolonged escalation of the US-China trade war would weigh on investment sentiment in Indonesia.

Moreover, given that the Indonesian rupiah is vulnerable to capital flows, particularly during periods of risk aversion, BI may hold (or even hike) its benchmark

interest rate to defend the currency if the US-China trade war results in selling pressures on emerging market assets.

Risks to our interest rate forecast are to the upside. While the rupiah has remained broadly stable in recent weeks, an event that triggers global risk aversion, such

as a further escalation of the US-China trade war, could lead to a sell-off in risk assets and emerging market currencies similar to during the second half of 2018.

Under such a scenario, the rupiah would be quite vulnerable to significant volatility and a sell-off given the high level of foreign ownership of government debt

which stands at around 40% of the total stock. This could see BI hold (or even raise) its benchmark interest rates to curb portfolio outflows and rupiah volatility.

Risks to our rupiah forecast are to the upside. If the US and China reach a trade agreement before 2021, market sentiment could improve and see the rupiah

coming in stronger than what we expect.

Indonesia Country Risk Q4 2019fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Indonesian Growth To Rebound
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Bank Indonesia To Ease Monetary Policy Further
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Indonesia's 2020 Budget Positive For Long-Term Growth
    • TABLE: SOME KEY PROJECTS UNDERWAY
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Indonesia Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Depreciatory Pressure Remains For The Indonesian Rupiah
    • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Indonesian Economy To 2028
  • A Bullish Long-Term Growth Story
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Potential Supermajority Government In Indonesia, Upside Risk To Policymaking
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDONESIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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