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カントリーリスクレポート - シンガポール

Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020

発行 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品コード 177803
出版日 ページ情報 英文 71 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.91円で換算しております。
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カントリーリスクレポート - シンガポール Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日: 2019年10月25日 ページ情報: 英文 71 Pages
概要

キービュー

シンガポールの「第4世代」と呼ばれる指導者たちはより大きな指導的役割を担うと示唆されています。反対意見が声高に叫ばれる中、次世代の指導者は前任者と比較しより多くの挑戦に直面する可能性が高いと見込みです。しかし、第三世代の指導者が現在の政治の表舞台から消えることはまずないとされ、シンガポールの政治情勢は安定した状態が維持される見通しです。外交政策の面では、シンガポールとマレーシア間の新旧の課題が再燃しているため、2カ国間の関係は冷ややかなままであると予測されます。シンガポール経済は、継続的な貿易紛争や国内の建設産業の鈍化、個人消費の低迷などによって、今後数四半世紀にかけて冷え込むと予測されています。政府は財政的に慎重な姿勢をみせており、高齢化や構造的変化による歳出の増加に対応するために、今後数年間で消費税の増収を計画しています。

主なリスク

シンガポールの健全な基盤にもかかわらず、中国経済の急速な鈍化に起因する外需減速と国内経済の再編により、今後数四半期にわたり定義上の景気後退が引き起こされる可能性があります。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • コアビュー
  • 主な予報の変更
  • 主なリスク
  • カントリーリスク概要
  • 経済リスク指数
  • 政治リスク指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 経済 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 経済見通し
  • 経済成長見通し
  • 世界的な逆風が高まるにつれ、2019年にシンガポールの成長はさらに鈍化する
  • GDPの見通し:支出別
  • 外部ポジションの見通し
  • 金融政策
  • 対外的な見通しの弱さがシンガポールの金融当局の引き締めの課題に
  • 金融政策の枠組み
  • 財政政策と公的債務の見通し
  • シンガポールは対外リスクを軽減するために財政政策を緩和
  • 構造的財政ポジション
  • 通貨予測
  • 貿易の不確実性があるにも関わらずシンガポールドルは強力なマクロ基盤に支えられる
  • 当レポートはFitch Solutions Macro Researchにより公表されたものであり、Fitch Ratingsの信用格付けではありません。レポートに含まれる論評やデータは、Fitch Solutions Macro Researchおよび独立した情報源からのみ得られたものです。Fitch RatingsのアナリストはFitch Solutions Macro Researchとデータを共有していません。
  • 2028年までのシンガポール経済
  • 2028年までの堅調な成長軌道
  • 政治的見通し
  • 国内政治
  • 海域・空域をめぐる紛争によって悪化するシンガポールとマレーシアの二国間関係
  • 長期的な政治見通し
  • 次の10年で政治的自由化が遅れる見込み
  • 運用リスク
  • 紛争リスク
  • 交通網
  • 世界のマクロトレンド
  • 成長のマイナスリスク
  • 索引
目次
Product Code: CFSG_20200101

Executive summary:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and maintained our 2020 growth forecast at 1.7%. The manufacturing sector will continue to under- perform the rest of the economy due to the likely persistence of external headwinds stemming from elevated US-China trade barriers. Investment and services are likely to benefit from policy support, low base effects and to some extent, the unrest in Hong Kong, providing the basis for a slight growth recovery in 2020.

We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep its dovish stance in the foreseeable future and to ease policy further in 2020. Economic growth is likely to remain slow in 2020, due to stiff headwinds facing the exporting sector, which will encourage the central bank to guide the Singapore dollar weaker to provide support to the economy. We also expect benign inflation over the coming months due to a softer oil price and economic outlook, underpinning MAS's easing stance.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously. The chief reason for these revisions is the negative impact of the slowing economy on revenues. The government is also likely to carry out fiscal stimulus over the coming quarters to support the economy, which would see a larger increase in expenditure than in better years. Plans for further revenue expansion, including a GST hike, signal the government's continued commitment to fiscal responsibility, while ample fiscal reserves place it in a strong position to fiscally stimulate the economy.

We expect the slowing economy to place downside pressure on the Singapore dollar through 2020. The Singapore dollar is on track to meet our 2019 average forecast of SGD1.3650/USD, and we therefore maintain it. However, we have revised our 2020 average forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously to reflect the external challenges faced by the island-nation that should keep the Monetary Authority of Singapore on an easing path. 2021 presents better prospects for a more lasting and comprehensive resolution to the US-China trade war in our view, which bodes well for the economy and, therefore, the Singapore dollar. We thus maintain our average forecast at SGD1.3600/USD in 2021.

We now expect the next general election to be called in H120, following the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee in September, with past occurrences having preceded elections by a few months. We see little chance of the ruling People's Action Party losing power, but winning a high vote share remains vital to establishing the credibility and legitimacy of the incoming fourth generation of leaders. Key figures of the Workers' Party have recently lost a civil lawsuit concerning their mismanagement of public monies, which is likely to dampen their prospects at the coming polls. The opposition as a whole is likely to remain weak and fragmented and is unlikely to mount a credible challenge of the kind put up by the Pakatan Harapan coalition marshalled by Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia in 2018.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2019, down from 0.9% previously.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously.

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously.

Key Risks:

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after two quarters of sluggish economic growth and which could be precipitated by a more pronounced

Chinese economic slowdown amid the US-China trade war.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Technical Recession Unlikely, Slight Recovery In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Easing To Continue Throughout 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Wider Deficits As Singapore Poised For Fiscal Stimulus
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2028
  • Currency Forecast
  • Singapore Dollar To Weaken Further In 2020 Amid Economic Slowdown
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Singapore Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2028
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Likely H120 Elections To See PAP Remain Singapore Government
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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