表紙
市場調査レポート

太陽電池用シリコン生産の主要企業

The 2014 Who's Who of Solar Silicon Production

発行 Bernreuter Research 商品コード 277710
出版日 ページ情報 英文 124 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=102.06円で換算しております。
Back to Top
太陽電池用シリコン生産の主要企業 The 2014 Who's Who of Solar Silicon Production
出版日: 2014年01月08日 ページ情報: 英文 124 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、ポリシリコン市場における130社以上の最新情報を提供しており、ポリシリコン生産技術の新しい動向、ポリシリコン企業の最新の発展、ポリシリコン供給の見通し、ポリシリコン需要の予測、需給バランスの結果、ポリシリコン現物価格の発展展望、ポリシリコン48工場の製造コスト、および7大ポリシリコン市場の動向などに関する分析を、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 技術

  • イントロダクション:ゲームのルールの変化
  • シーメンス法
  • 簡単なシーメンス法
  • モノシラン型アプローチ
  • 流動層反応器技術
  • 蒸気から液体への沈着
  • 四塩化ケイ素の亜鉛還元
  • 四フッ化ケイ素のナトリウム還元
  • 電解アプローチ
  • シリコン金属の物理的精製
  • 直接炭素熱還元
  • 結論:技術のベンチマーキング

第3章 主要企業:世界全体の発展

  • 南北アメリカ(カナダ・米国・ブラジル)
  • 欧州
  • 日本
  • 韓国
  • 中国
  • 台湾
  • オーストラリア
  • ロシア/独立国家共同体(CIS)
  • インド
  • アラビア半島

第4章 供給:世界のシナリオ

第5章 需要:世界の展望

  • 半導体産業からの需要
  • 太陽電池産業からの需要

第6章 バランス:需給力学

  • 供給シナリオ1
  • 供給シナリオ2、3、4
  • 循環型の変化
  • 騒然とした市場発展の前夜

第7章 コスト:状況の激しい変化が続く

  • 2011年:市場調整の始まり
  • 2012年:商品のダンピング
  • 2013年:反ダンピングの報復
  • 2014-2017年:市場最低価格の再来

第8章 コスト:1kgあたり20米ドルの障壁を打ち破る

第9章 結論:

付録:企業ウェブサイトのディレクトリ

著者について

図表リスト

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

The 2014 Who's Who of Solar Silicon Production provides you with comprehensive and up-to-date information on 130 companies in the polysilicon sector. It covers incumbent manufacturers, new entrants and aspirants from:

  • the Americas
  • Europe
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • China
  • Taiwan
  • Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States
  • India
  • the Arabian Peninsula.

Nine chapter give you valuable insight into:

  • the shakeout of roughly 50 polysilicon manufacturers
  • new trends for polysilicon production technologies
  • the latest developments at polysilicon companies
  • the perspectives for polysilicon supply through 2017
  • scenarios of polysilicon demand through 2017
  • consequences from the supply/demand balance
  • the development of the polysilicon spot price through 2017
  • the manufacturing costs of 48 polysilicon plants
  • seven major polysilicon market trends.

The report analyzes hundreds of data and details, presents them in a clear and compact form, and draws insightful conclusions to help you make the best strategic decisions. At 124 pages, The 2014 Who's Who of Solar Silicon Production is an ideal guide for polysilicon, solar and semiconductor companies, equipment suppliers and engineering firms, investors, analysts and researchers alike.

2014 polysilicon report with unique details

  • The introduction illustrates the connection between the polysilicon spot price and the number of manufacturers and details the shakeout by listing all companies that have stopped production since 2011.
  • The technology chapter re-assesses the technical viability and cost potential of 10 polysilicon manufacturing routes, including the dominant Siemens process and physical purification methods to obtain upgraded metallurgical-grade (UMG) silicon - all in light of the recent market development and new technological achievements.
  • The company chapter covers capacity expansions and plant shutdowns, technological progress and the latest project changes at 92 manufacturers and aspirants through concise updates, arranged according to world region and manufacturing approach. Each region is introduced by a brief summary of location factors and/or development trends.
  • The supply chapter provides you with 4 different scenarios of production volumes and end-of-year capacities for 85 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants and projects from 2011 through 2017. It highlights the market shares of the top ten manufacturers and the distribution of the global output by world region.
  • The demand chapter quantifies the polysilicon demand of the photovoltaic (PV) and semiconductor industries from 2012 through 2017. It uses an improved bottom-up approach, based on numerous forecasts for regional PV markets, in order to arrive at 3 different scenarios of global PV demand.
  • The balance chapter compares the various demand and supply scenarios, explains consequences from the supply/demand balance for market participants, and discusses changes in the cyclical pattern of the polysilicon industry.
  • The price chapter examines the factors that have influenced the polysilicon spot price since 2011 and uses data from customs statistics to assess the effect of Chinese anti-dumping duties. Based on a diligent analysis of industry cost curves, it forecasts the development of the polysilicon spot price through 2017.
  • The cost chapter provides data and background on cash production costs and depreciation rates of 48 polysilicon and UMG silicon plants from 2012 through 2017.
  • The conclusion succinctly summarizes seven major trends for the polysilicon industry and embeds them in a broader context.
  • A directory of 145 web sites from manufacturers, aspirants, equipment suppliers and engineering firms supplements the polysilicon report.

Table of Contents

  • Table of Contents
  • Imprint
  • Executive Summary
  • List of Tables and Figures
  • Abbreviations, Chemical formulae, Silicon grades, Exchange rates

1. Introduction: Anatomy of the Shakeout

2. Technologies: A Fresh Assessment

  • 2.1. Introduction: Changing rules of the game
  • 2.2. The Siemens process
  • 2.3. A simplified Siemens process
  • 2.4. Monosilane-based approaches
  • 2.5. Fluidized bed reactor technology
  • 2.6. Vapor to Liquid Deposition
  • 2.7. Reduction of silicon tetrachloride with zinc
  • 2.8. Reduction of silicon tetrafluoride with sodium
  • 2.9. Electrolytic approaches
  • 2.10. Physical purification of silicon metal
  • 2.11. Direct carbothermic reduction
  • 2.12. Conclusion: Benchmarking the technologies

3. Companies: Developments across the World

  • 3.1. The Americas (Canada, USA, Brazil)
    • Hemlock Semiconductor Group
    • REC Silicon Inc.
    • MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (now: Sunedison, Inc.)
    • Wacker Polysilicon North America LLC
    • Hoku Materials, Inc.
    • Silfab Ontario Inc.
    • Umoe Solar New Brunswick Inc.
    • AE Polysilicon Corp.
    • Peak Sun Silicon Corp.
    • Arise Technologies Corp.
    • Buckeye Silicon Inc.
    • Silicor Materials Inc. (formerly Calisolar Inc.)
    • Bécancour Silicon Inc.
    • Dow Corning Corp.
    • Rima Industrial S/A
    • Solar Silicon Inc.
    • Solsil, Inc.
    • Mayaterials, Inc.
    • Process Research Ortech Inc.
    • RSI Silicon Products LLC
    • 21-Century Silicon, Inc.
  • 3.2. Europe
    • Wacker Chemie AG
    • MEMC Electronic Materials S.p.A.
    • Silicon Products Bitterfeld GmbH & Co. KG (formerly PV Crystalox)
    • The Silicon Mine B.V.
    • Silicio Energía S.A.
    • Centesil S.L.
    • Siliken Chemicals S.L.
    • JSSi GmbH
    • Schmid Polysilicon Production GmbH
    • Elkem Solar AS
    • Clean Silicon AS
    • Grupo Ferroatlántica S.A.
    • Solarvalue AG
    • Evonik Solar Norge AS (formerly Fesil Sunergy AS)
    • Ned Silicon SpA
    • JPM Silicon GmbH
    • Girasolar B.V.
    • Hycore ANS
  • 3.3. Japan
    • Tokuyama Corp.
    • Mitsubishi Materials Corp.
    • Osaka Titanium technologies Co., Ltd.
    • M.Setek Co., Ltd.
    • Japan Solar Silicon Co., Ltd.
    • JFE Steel Corp.
    • NS Solar Material Co., Ltd.
  • 3.4. South Korea
    • OCI Company Ltd.
    • Hankook Silicon Co., Ltd.
    • Woongjin Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
    • Korea Advanced Materials Co., Ltd.
    • Hanwha Chemical Corp.
    • LG Chem Ltd.
    • KCC Corp.
    • SMP, LTP (Samsung Fine Chemicals/MEMC joint venture)
    • Sphere Renewable Energy Asia Pacific, Inc.
  • 3.5. China
    • Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co., Ltd.
    • LDK Silicon & Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.
    • TBEA Xinjiang Silicon Industry Co., Ltd.
    • Daqo New Energy Corp.
    • Sichuan Renesola Silicon Material Co., Ltd.
    • Luoyang China Silicon High-Tech Co., Ltd.
    • Yichang CSG Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
    • Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co., Ltd.
    • Sichuan Yongxiang Polysilicon Co., Ltd.
    • Inner Mongolia Dunan Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd.
    • Qinghai Huanghe Hydropower Development Co., Ltd.
  • 3.6. Taiwan
    • Taiwan Polysilicon Corp.
    • Powertec Energy Corp.
    • AUO Crystal Corp.
    • Muto Silicon Corp.
    • Sun Materials Technology Co., Ltd.
    • Shihlien Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
    • Real Green Material Technology Corp.
  • 3.7. Australia
    • Auzsolar Pty Ltd
  • 3.8. Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States
    • Nitol Solar Ltd.
    • Semiconductor Plant OJSC
    • Semiconductor Silicon Plant JSC
    • Uzkhimprom SJSC
  • 3.9. India
    • Lanco Solar Pvt. Ltd.
    • Iacharya Silicon Ltd.
    • Maharishi Solar Technology Pvt. Ltd.
    • Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd.
  • 3.10. Arabian Peninsula
    • Polysilicon Technology Co.
    • Qatar Solar Technologies Q.S.C.
    • IDEA Polysilicon Co.
    • Saudi Polysilicon
    • Cosmos Chemicals Bhd.
    • Al Rajhi Group
    • MBM Solar Holding Inc.
    • Mubadala Development Co.
    • SilicoTek B.V.
    • Silicor Materials Inc. (formerly Calisolar Inc.)

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2017

5. Demand: Market Perspectives through 2017

  • 5.1. Demand from the semiconductor industry
  • 5.2. Demand from the photovoltaic industry
    • Meta-analysis of analyst forecasts
    • Different approach: Extrapolation from three independent indicators
    • Reality check: 2012 result and analysis
    • Extrapolation revisited: Projections for 2013
    • Bottom-up approach: Installation scenarios 2013 - 2017
    • A wider perspective: Cross-comparison with three other industries
    • From installation to production volumes
    • Time lag between polysilicon and solar cell production

6. Balance: Dynamics of Supply and Demand

  • Supply Scenario 1 (unconfined)
  • Supply Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 (low, base and high case)
  • Change of the cyclical pattern
  • On the eve of a turbulent market development

7. Prices: The Roller-Coaster Ride Continues

  • 2011: The market correction begins
  • 2012: Dumping of inventories
  • 2013: Anti-dumping tit for tat
  • 2014 - 2017: Return of record-low prices

8. Costs: Breaking the Barrier of 20 $/kg

9. Conclusion: Steering through Stormy Waters

Appendix: Directory of Company Web Sites

  • A. Manufacturers and aspirants
  • B. CVD reactor suppliers
  • C. Providers of reactor power supply systems
  • D. Hydrochlorination technology providers
  • E. Other technology providers/consultants
  • F. Engineering, procurement & construction firms

About the author

List of Tables and Figures

1. Introduction: Anatomy of the Shakeout

  • Number of polysilicon/UMG silicon manufacturers vs. polysilicon spot price 2004 - 2013
  • Polysilicon manufacturers that have stopped production since 2011

2. Technologies: A Fresh Assessment

  • Market shares of ingot/cell technologies 2012 - 2017
  • Development periods for alternative polysilicon production technologies
  • Development of polysilicon production costs
  • Polysilicon manufacturers and projects with hydrochlorination process
  • Sensitivity analysis of cost savings with hydrochlorination (greenfield plant)
  • Power consumption of the SST process
  • Indices of REC Silicon's FBR polysilicon plant per quarter
  • Carbon concentration of VLD silicon and SEMI standard
  • Improvement of impurity concentrations (ppmw) by UMG silicon manufacturers/developers
  • Average cell efficiencies reached by Calisolar Inc.
  • Structure of Silicor Materials' projected manufacturing costs per 1 kg of UMG silicon
  • Construction periods for larger-scale UMG silicon plants
  • Impurity concentrations (ppmw) in silicon from direct carbothermic reduction
  • SiO2 material costs per 1 kg of silicon produced from various feedstocks
  • Ranking of polysilicon production technologies

3. Companies: Developments across the World

  • Industrial electricity rates for polysilicon production in various world regions
  • Hemlock Semiconductor's capex for expansion
  • Impurity concentrations (ppba) of REC's granular polysilicon
  • Wacker Polysilicon's capex for expansion
  • OCI Company's capex
  • Proposed list of companies in line with access conditions
  • Chinese polysilicon manufacturers in production
  • Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon's capex

4. Supply: Global Scenarios through 2017

  • 2012 polysilicon production scenario and result (in MT)
  • Classification of polysilicon manufacturer tiers
  • Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 1 (unconfined): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 2 (low case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 2 (low case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 3 (base case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 4 (high case): Polysilicon production by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 4 (high case): Polysilicon production by tier (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 1 (unconfined): Production of UMG/DCR silicon by company (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 3 (base case): UMG silicon production by Tier 1 & 2 companies (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Scenario 3 (base case): Silicon production by region (in MT) 2011 - 2017
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2012
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2013
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2014
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2015
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2016
  • Top ten polysilicon manufacturers in 2017
  • Market shares of the top ten and top four manufacturers 2011 - 2017

5. Demand: Market perspectives through 2017

  • Polysilicon demand from the semiconductor industry
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2008
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2009
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2010
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2011
  • Deviation of analyst forecasts from actual installation volumes 2008 - 2011
  • 2002 scenario of the PV industry's polysilicon demand and actual result
  • Guidance and results of 20 major cell/module manufacturers 2008 - 2012
  • Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2012
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2012
  • Extrapolation from the analyst forecast average for 2012
  • Extrapolations of the PV installation volume in 2012
  • PV growth rates 2003 - 2006, 2009 - 2012
  • Market shares of growth drivers in global PV installations 2003 - 2012
  • PV installation volumes and global growth rates 2003 - 2012
  • Deviation of the analyst forecast average from actual results 2008 - 2013
  • Analyst forecasts for global PV installations in 2013
  • Results and guidance of major cell/module manufacturers in 2012/2013
  • Sensitivity analysis of guidance extrapolation for 2013
  • 2012 scenario and result (in GW)
  • Installation scenarios for the top ten PV markets (in GW) 2013 - 2017
  • Installation scenarios of IHS, EPIA, Sarasin and Bernreuter Research for 2013 - 2017
  • Annual growth rates of the semiconductor and PV industries
  • Annual growth rates of the automobile and PV industries
  • Annual growth rates of the automobile industry after 1945
  • Development of annual wind power and PV system installations (in GW)
  • Global cryst. solar cell and thin-film module production volumes (in MW) 2004 - 2012
  • Ratio between global cell/module production and PV system installation volumes
  • Scenarios of crystalline silicon cell production volumes (in GW) 2013 - 2017
  • Polysilicon shipment periods (in weeks)
  • Breakdown of time lag between polysilicon and cell production (in weeks)
  • Specific silicon consumption of cell production (in g/W) 2010 - 2018
  • Share of first quarter in full year cell/module production/shipment volumes
  • Polysilicon consumption/demand of the PV industry (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
  • Scenarios of the PV industry's polysilicon consumption/demand (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017

6. Balance: Dynamics of Supply and Demand

  • Demand of the PV and semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
  • Scenarios for the demand of the PV & semiconductor industries (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017
  • Balance of silicon supply and demand (in 1,000 MT) 2010 - 2012
  • Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 1, unconfined) and demand scenarios 2013 - 2017
  • Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (in 1,000 MT) 2013 - 2017
  • Comparison of high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios 2013 - 2017
  • New PV installations in the base, high-case and market-clearing demand scenarios
  • Silicon supply by tiers (Scenario 3, base case) and demand 2013 - 2017
  • Scenarios of the silicon supply/demand balance (low, base and high case) 2013 - 2017
  • Intervals between contract price peaks and troughs 1977 - 2011

7. Prices: The Roller-Coaster Ride Continues

  • Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2011
  • Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2012
  • Development of spot and contract prices versus Chinese polysilicon imports in 2013
  • Preliminary duty rates for imports from the USA and South Korea to China
  • Average price ($/kg) of polysilicon imported to China
  • Shares of processing trade and main importers in monthly imports in 2013
  • Development of the Chinese and international spot prices in 2013
  • Electronic-grade production volumes and capacities (MT) in 2012
  • Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2012 - 2014 (base-case scenario)
  • Solar-grade polysilicon industry cost curves 2015 - 2017 (base-case scenario)
  • Scenarios of the year-end polysilicon spot price (in $/kg) 2013 - 2017

8. Costs: Breaking the Barrier of 20 $/kg

  • Cash costs and depreciation rates (in $/kg) of polysilicon manufacturers 2012 - 2017
Back to Top