モバイルウォレットサービス市場

欧州のモバイルウォレットユーザー数は、2012年の50万人から2017年には4,200万人へ増加すると予測され、店舗内ペイメント額は、2012年の1億ユーロから2017年には450億ユーロへ成長すると予測されています。北米におけるモバイルウォレットユーザー数は、2012年末時点で約750万人でしたが、2017年には2,900万人へ増加すると見込まれ、店舗内ペイメント額は、2012年の5億米ドル(4億ユーロ)から、2017年には440億米ドル(330億ユーロ)へ拡大する見込みです。

当レポートでは、欧州・北米のモバイルペイメント市場について包括的に分析し、モバイルウォレット産業の競合力学、主要モバイルウォレットオペレーターの戦略、付加価値サービスの新しいビジネスチャンス、NFCウォレットサービス向けインフラの導入方法、非NFCウォレットサービスのメリットと課題、詳細な地域別予測を含む専門家による市場分析などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

図表

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章　モバイルウォレットのイントロダクション

• イントロダクション
• カードペイメント産業の概要
• カードペイメント・家計消費支出
• モバイルペイメント技術

第2章　POSの受容

• POS端末市場の概要
• POSにおけるモバイルウォレットの受容
• POS端末ベンダー

第3章　モバイル端末

• モバイル端末市場の概要
• モバイル端末におけるNFC・セキュアエレメント

第4章　TSM・モバイルウォレットプラットフォーム

• トラステッドサービスマネージャー
• モバイルウォレットプラットフォーム
• TSM・ウォレットプラットフォームベンダーのプロファイル

第5章　モバイルウォレットオペレーター

• モバイルウォレットエコシステム
• NFCモバイルウォレットサービスのアーキテクチャー
• ビジネスモデル
• ケーススタディ

第6章　付加価値サービス

• 付加価値サービスの収益可能性
• 付加価値サービスのタイプ
• ケーススタディ

第7章　結論・予測

• 市場動向・分析
• NFCモバイルウォレットサービス向けインフラの予測
• モバイルウォレット市場：EU27ヶ国+2カ国
• 北米のモバイルウォレット市場

用語集

図表

‘Mobile Wallet Services’ is a comprehensive report from Berg Insight analysing the latest developments on the mobile payments market in Europe and North America.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 170 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

This report will allow you to:

• Profit from 40 new executive interviews with market leading companies.
• Understand the competitive dynamics of the nascent mobile wallet industry.
• Learn from the strategies of the leading mobile wallet operators.
• Identify new business opportunities in value-added services.
• Evaluate how the deployment of infrastructure for NFC wallet services is proceeding.
• Recognize the benefits and challenges of non-NFC wallet services.
• Benefit from expert market analysis including detailed regional forecasts.

Executive summary

How will the mobile wallet market develop in the next 5 years?

Berg Insight believes that the emergence of mobile wallet services will be the most significant development in the payments industry during this decade. Mobile wallet services will change both offline and online commerce by enabling new shopping experiences for consumers and by creating an unprecedented opportunity for retailers and brands to interact with their customers while purchase decisions are being made. However, the mobile wallet market is still in its infancy and the wallet services need to develop substantially before this vision can become reality. Nevertheless, the market is now moving rapidly and commercial rollouts of numerous NFC and non-NFC wallet services are underway. The required infrastructure for mobile wallet services is being rolled out and key partnerships are being formed between mobile network operators, financial institutions, retailers and other companies. This will result in a proliferation of mobile wallet services during the next few years, which will be a very important time during which wallet operators have an opportunity to learn and improve their services. Berg Insight anticipates that only a limited number of wallet services will survive in the long term due to network effects. Mobile wallet operators that do not enter the market early risk falling behind and may find themselves struggling to gain critical mass.

The European market for mobile wallet services is developing quickly, with substantial momentum behind NFC wallet services and many launches of non-NFC wallet services are also in progress. Commercial mobile wallet services will have been launched by companies such as Telefónica, Orange, T-Mobile, Vodafone, ING Bank, BNP Paribas, Barclaycard, Swedbank, mBank, PKO Bank Polski, Seamless, Auchan and PayPal by the end of 2013. As a result, there will be mobile wallet services live in nearly half of the EU27+2 countries at the end of the year. Berg Insight expects that 2016-2017 will be the first years in which mobile wallets approach mass market penetration and more than ten million new wallet users will then be added on an annual basis. The number of active mobile wallet users is projected to increase from 0.5 million in 2012 to 42 million in 2017, whereas the in-store payments volume will grow from well below € 0.1 billion in 2012 to € 45 billion in 2017.

In-store mobile wallet payments (Europe/North America 2012-2017)

©Berg Insight AB

There were approximately 7.5 million mobile wallet users in North America at the end of 2012, which completed in-store payments for a total of US$ 0.5 billion (€ 0.4 billion) during the year. However, this relatively high number of users and transactions was almost exclusively due to the phenomenal success of Starbucks' application for mobile payments that had around 7 million users at the end of 2012. Mobile wallets that can be used at multiple merchants only had a few hundred thousand users in the region at the end of 2012. However, many promising initiatives are underway in both the US and Canada. Companies and consortiums such as Google, Isis, MCX, PayPal, CIBC, LevelUp and Square are competing to become the consumer's wallet of choice, each with a unique approach to the market. Berg Insight expects that several of these initiatives will have a significant impact on the market already in 2014. The number of active mobile wallet users will increase to 29 million in 2017, whereas the in-store payments volume will grow to US$ 44 billion (€ 33 billion) in the same year.

A prerequisite for commercial NFC mobile wallet services is that the necessary software and hardware infrastructure is in place. Deployments of this infrastructure have now gained substantial momentum. Global shipments of NFC-enabled handsets grew by 300 percent in 2012 to 140 million units and are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 48 percent to reach 1.0 billion units by 2017. The market for NFC-ready POS terminals grew fiercely in 2012 and annual shipments doubled to an estimated 3.9 million units worldwide.

Global shipments of NFC-ready POS terminals are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 29.1 percent to reach 14.0 million units by 2017. The implementation of TSM infrastructure for NFC wallet services is also progressing rapidly and there are high levels of activity in Europe, parts of Asia-Pacific, Turkey and North America. In fact, 2013 will be a record year for the rollout of TSM infrastructure, as an expected 140 mobile network operators, banks, transport companies and other companies will be using TSMs in commercially available services at the end of the year. The number of SEI-TSM and SP-TSM projects expected for the end of 2013 marks a substantial increase from just 57 live projects at the end of 2012 and 25 live projects at the end of 2011. The largest share of TSM projects has been implemented in Asia-Pacific, followed by EU27+2 and North America.

This report answers the following questions:

• How are MNOs, banks and other companies addressing the mobile wallet opportunity?
• Which are the leading technology vendors?
• How do the choices of the secure element issuer affect the options available to service providers?
• What are the benefits and challenges associated with non-NFC mobile wallet services?
• How many TSM projects will be commercially live at the end of 2013?
• When will the majority of all POS terminals incorporate NFC?
• What value-added services can be successfully incorporated in mobile wallets?
• What are the prerequisites for mobile wallets to become mass market services?

Table of Contents

Table of contents

List of figures

Executive summary

1. Introduction to mobile wallets

• 1.1. Introduction
  • 1.1.1. Mobile wallets and value-added services
  • 1.1.2. Opportunities to engage with consumers in new ways
  • 1.1.3. Threats to the structure of the payments value chain
• 1.2. Overview of the card payments industry
  • 1.2.1. The transaction process in card payments
  • 1.2.2. Costs of a card payment transaction
  • 1.2.3. Revenue distribution in the card payments industry
• 1.3. Card payments and household consumption expenditures
  • 1.3.1. Breakdown of household consumption expenditures
  • 1.3.2. Card payment volumes
• 1.4. Mobile payment technologies
  • 1.4.1. NFC
  • 1.4.2. 2D barcodes
  • 1.4.3. Identification numbers and tags
  • 1.4.4. Other technologies

2. Acceptance at the point of sale

• 2.1. Overview of the POS terminal market
  • 2.1.1. Installed base of POS terminals
  • 2.1.2. Form factors
• 2.2. Acceptance of mobile wallets at the POS
  • 2.2.1. Rollout of NFC-ready terminals
  • 2.2.2. Acceptance of Visa and MasterCard contactless payments
  • 2.2.3. Acceptance of value-added services at the point of sale
• 2.3. POS terminal vendors
  • 2.3.1. Equinox Payments
  • 2.3.2. ID Tech
  • 2.3.3. Ingenico
  • 2.3.4. PAX Technology
  • 2.3.5. Spire Payments
  • 2.3.6. VeriFone

3. Mobile handsets

• 3.1. Overview of the mobile handset market
  • 3.1.1. Mobile subscriptions and unique mobile users
  • 3.1.2. Smartphone platform market shares
  • 3.1.3. Smartphone ecosystem developments
• 3.2. NFC and secure elements in mobile handsets
  • 3.2.1. NFC handset availability and sales accelerated in 2012
  • 3.2.2. NFC solution architectures and chipsets for handsets

4. TSMs and mobile wallet platforms

• 4.1. Trusted service managers
  • 4.1.1. Overview of SEI-TSM and SP-TSM solutions
  • 4.1.2. Commercially live SEI-TSM projects
  • 4.1.3. Commercially live SP-TSM projects
  • 4.1.4. TSM projects live and under implementation
• 4.2. Mobile wallet platforms
  • 4.2.1. Competitive landscape
  • 4.2.2. Overview of a mobile wallet platform
  • 4.2.3. Commercially live mobile wallet deployments
• 4.3. TSM and wallet platform vendor profiles
  • 4.3.1. AIRTAG
  • 4.3.2. C-SAM
  • 4.3.3. Cardtek Group
  • 4.3.4. Corfire
  • 4.3.5. Gemalto
  • 4.3.6. Giesecke & Devrient
  • 4.3.7. Fiserv
  • 4.3.8. MasterCard
  • 4.3.9. Monitise
  • 4.3.10. Oberthur Technologies
  • 4.3.11. Morpho
  • 4.3.12. Proxama
  • 4.3.13. Sequent
  • 4.3.14. SAP
  • 4.3.15. Visa Europe

5. Mobile wallet operators

• 5.1. Mobile wallet ecosystems
  • 5.1.1. Secure element issuers, service providers and wallet operators
  • 5.1.2. Controlling the secure element
  • 5.1.3. Universal wallets and merchant wallets
  • 5.1.4. The effective addressable market for NFC wallet services is still small
  • 5.1.5. The benefits and challenges faced by non-NFC wallet services
  • 5.1.6. The value of a mobile wallet ecosystem
• 5.2. NFC mobile wallet service architectures
  • 5.2.1. Centralized architecture
  • 5.2.2. Decentralized architecture
  • 5.2.3. Hybrid architecture
  • 5.2.4. Open architecture
• 5.3. Business models
  • 5.3.1. Interchange and other acceptance fees
  • 5.3.2. Secure element access
  • 5.3.3. Presence in the wallet
  • 5.3.4. Value-added services
  • 5.3.5. Services to issuers and acquirers
  • 5.3.6. Improve position in an adjacent market
• 5.4. Case studies
  • 5.4.1. Apple launches Passbook
  • 5.4.2. Google moves to a staged model for mobile wallet services
  • 5.4.3. ING plans rollout of mobile wallet services in Europe
  • 5.4.4. LevelUp drives traffic to merchants with offers and mobile payments
  • 5.4.5. Mobito is a mobile wallet available to everyone in the Czech Republic
  • 5.4.6. Orange expands wallet services and plans new launches
  • 5.4.7. Samsung announces wallet and embedded secure element in new devices
  • 5.4.8. SEQR builds a new payment network and rolls out a mobile wallet service
  • 5.4.9. Swedbank launches mobile payment services in Sweden
  • 5.4.10. Swedish MNOs launch mobile wallet joint venture
  • 5.4.11. Telefónica sees mobile wallet opportunity in value-added services
  • 5.4.12. Turkcell pioneers mobile wallet services in Turkey
  • 5.4.13. US carriers launch the Isis wallet service
  • 5.4.14. US retailers form MCX consortium
  • 5.4.15. Visa launches the V.me wallet with initial focus on eCommerce

6. Value-added services

• 6.1. The revenue potential of value-added services
  • 6.1.1. Local advertising is big business
  • 6.1.2. The use of location data allows more advertisers to reach their customers
  • 6.1.3. Indoor location technologies enable new marketing possibilities
  • 6.1.4. Mobile phones enable personalized interactions with consumers in real-time
  • 6.1.5. High performance motivates premium rates
• 6.2. Types of value-added services
  • 6.2.1. Coupons and offers
  • 6.2.2. Loyalty solutions
  • 6.2.3. Product information
  • 6.2.4. Digital receipts and warranties
• 6.3. Case studies
  • 6.3.1. Cardlytics enables card-linked offers based on purchase history
  • 6.3.2. Foursquare generates more than 5 million check-ins per day
  • 6.3.3. Groupon expands with new deal formats
  • 6.3.4. Proximus Mobility delivers relevant ads to consumers' mobile devices
  • 6.3.5. Scanbuy enables measureable 2D barcode campaigns
  • 6.3.6. Shopkick drives foot traffic and enables in-store navigation at merchants
  • 6.3.7. Starbucks creates mobile payment experiences linked to loyalty programme
  • 6.3.8. STM launches new reward programme with real-time personalized offers
  • 6.3.9. The Logic Group provides loyalty as a managed service
  • 6.3.10. Vouchercloud locates the nearest discounts and provides directions
  • 6.3.11. Warrantify enables digital management of warranties and receipts

7. Conclusions and forecasts

• 7.1. Market trends and analysis
  • 7.1.1. Network effects will limit the number of universal wallets in each market
  • 7.1.2. Mobile wallet operators need to build capabilities in value-added services
  • 7.1.3. The effective addressable market for NFC wallets is small but can grow fast
  • 7.1.4. Alternatives to mobile operator controlled secure elements emerge
  • 7.1.5. The CP/CNP dichotomy will be revised
  • 7.1.6. MasterCard introduces new rules that affect staged wallet operators
• 7.2. Forecasts on infrastructure for NFC mobile wallet services
  • 7.2.1. NFC-ready POS terminals
  • 7.2.2. NFC-enabled handsets
  • 7.2.3. Rollout of TSM infrastructure
• 7.3. The mobile wallet market in EU27+2
  • 7.3.1. Market analysis
  • 7.3.2. Forecasts
• 7.4. The mobile wallet market in North America
  • 7.4.1. Market analysis
  • 7.4.2. Forecasts

• Glossary

List of figures

• Figure 1.1: Typical payment transaction flow
• Figure 1.2: Visa interchange fees in the UK and the US
• Figure 1.3: Revenue distribution in card payments
• Figure 1.4: Card payments as a share of HCE and GDP (World 2011)
• Figure 1.5: Household consumption expenditures by service and product (EU27 2011)
• Figure 1.6: Card payments in Europe and North America (2011)
• Figure 1.7: Card payment volumes (EU27 and NA 2007-2011)
• Figure 1.8: Different forms of 2D barcode payments
• Figure 2.1: Installed base of POS terminals (World Q4-2011)
• Figure 2.2: POS terminal density by country (World 2011)
• Figure 2.3: Stationary and mobile POS terminals
• Figure 2.4: mPOS devices
• Figure 2.5: NFC-ready POS terminals by region (World 2012)
• Figure 2.6: Visa payWave POS terminals (Europe 2012)
• Figure 2.7: PayPass and payWave POS terminals (World 2012)
• Figure 2.8: Acceptance of mobile wallets at the point of sale
• Figure 2.9: POS terminal shipments by manufacturer (World 2012)
• Figure 2.10: Equinox Payments POS terminals
• Figure 2.11: PAX Technology POS terminals
• Figure 3.1: Handset shipments by segment (World 2008-2012)
• Figure 3.2: Mobile subscriptions by region (World 2011-2012)
• Figure 3.3: Unique mobile users and mobile phones in use (World 2010-2012)
• Figure 3.4: Smartphone shipments by vendor and OS (World 2012)
• Figure 3.5: Number of NFC handsets available on the market (2010-2013)
• Figure 3.6: NFC handset vendor market shares (2010-2012)
• Figure 3.7: Examples of commercially available NFC-enabled handsets (Q2-2013)
• Figure 3.8: NFC solution architectures in handsets
• Figure 3.9: Examples of NFC controllers and combo chipsets by vendor
• Figure 4.1: SEI-TSMs and SP-TSMs in the NFC ecosystem
• Figure 4.2: Commercially live SEI-TSM projects (World Q1-2013)
• Figure 4.3: Commercially live SP-TSM projects for banks (World Q1-2013)
• Figure 4.4: TSM projects live and under implementation (Q1-2013)
• Figure 4.5: Competitive landscape for wallet platform vendors
• Figure 4.6: Mobile wallet platform deployments by vendor (Q1-2013)
• Figure 4.7: Overview of TSM and wallet platform vendors (World 2013)
• Figure 5.1: Examples of universal wallets
• Figure 5.2: Examples of merchant wallets
• Figure 5.3: Effective addressable market for NFC mobile wallet services
• Figure 5.4: The value components of a mobile wallet ecosystem
• Figure 5.5: Centralized architecture for NFC services
• Figure 5.6: Decentralized architecture for NFC services
• Figure 5.7: Hybrid architecture for NFC services
• Figure 5.8: Open architecture
• Figure 5.9: LevelUp offering and FTUB white-label payment solution
• Figure 6.1: Cardlytics' offers in online and mobile banking
• Figure 6.2: Starbucks payments and rewards
• Figure 7.1: Effective addressable market for NFC wallets by region (World Q1-2013)
• Figure 7.2: NFC POS terminal shipments by region (World 2011-2017)
• Figure 7.3: NFC POS terminal installed base by region (World 2011-2017)
• Figure 7.4: Forecasts on NFC handset shipments (World 2011-2017)
• Figure 7.5: Smartphone shipments (EU27+2 and NA 2011-2017)
• Figure 7.6: Installed base and penetration of NFC handsets (World 2011-2017)
• Figure 7.7: Rollout of TSM infrastructure (World 2011-2013)
• Figure 7.8: Mobile wallet users and transactions (EU27+2 2012-2017)
• Figure 7.9: Mobile wallet users and transactions (NA 2012-2017)