‘Mobile Wallet Services’ is a comprehensive report from Berg Insight
analysing the latest developments on the mobile payments market in Europe and
North America.
This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 170 pages
of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert
commentary on which to base your business decisions.
This report will allow you to:
- Profit from 40 new executive interviews with market leading
companies.
- Understand the competitive dynamics of the nascent mobile wallet
industry.
- Learn from the strategies of the leading mobile wallet operators.
- Identify new business opportunities in value-added services.
- Evaluate how the deployment of infrastructure for NFC wallet
services is proceeding.
- Recognize the benefits and challenges of non-NFC wallet services.
- Benefit from expert market analysis including detailed regional
forecasts.
Executive summary
How will the mobile wallet market develop in the next 5 years?
Berg Insight believes that the emergence of mobile wallet services will be the
most significant development in the payments industry during this decade.
Mobile wallet services will change both offline and online commerce by
enabling new shopping experiences for consumers and by creating an
unprecedented opportunity for retailers and brands to interact with their
customers while purchase decisions are being made. However, the mobile wallet
market is still in its infancy and the wallet services need to develop
substantially before this vision can become reality. Nevertheless, the market
is now moving rapidly and commercial rollouts of numerous NFC and non-NFC
wallet services are underway. The required infrastructure for mobile wallet
services is being rolled out and key partnerships are being formed between
mobile network operators, financial institutions, retailers and other
companies. This will result in a proliferation of mobile wallet services
during the next few years, which will be a very important time during which
wallet operators have an opportunity to learn and improve their services. Berg
Insight anticipates that only a limited number of wallet services will survive
in the long term due to network effects. Mobile wallet operators that do not
enter the market early risk falling behind and may find themselves struggling
to gain critical mass.
The European market for mobile wallet services is developing quickly, with
substantial momentum behind NFC wallet services and many launches of non-NFC
wallet services are also in progress. Commercial mobile wallet services will
have been launched by companies such as Telefónica, Orange, T-Mobile,
Vodafone, ING Bank, BNP Paribas, Barclaycard, Swedbank, mBank, PKO Bank
Polski, Seamless, Auchan and PayPal by the end of 2013. As a result, there
will be mobile wallet services live in nearly half of the EU27+2 countries at
the end of the year. Berg Insight expects that 2016-2017 will be the first
years in which mobile wallets approach mass market penetration and more than
ten million new wallet users will then be added on an annual basis. The number
of active mobile wallet users is projected to increase from 0.5 million in
2012 to 42 million in 2017, whereas the in-store payments volume will grow
from well below € 0.1 billion in 2012 to € 45 billion in 2017.
In-store mobile wallet payments (Europe/North America 2012-2017)
©Berg Insight AB
There were approximately 7.5 million mobile wallet users in North America at
the end of 2012, which completed in-store payments for a total of US$ 0.5
billion (€ 0.4 billion) during the year. However, this relatively high
number of users and transactions was almost exclusively due to the phenomenal
success of Starbucks' application for mobile payments that had around 7
million users at the end of 2012. Mobile wallets that can be used at multiple
merchants only had a few hundred thousand users in the region at the end of
2012. However, many promising initiatives are underway in both the US and
Canada. Companies and consortiums such as Google, Isis, MCX, PayPal, CIBC,
LevelUp and Square are competing to become the consumer's wallet of choice,
each with a unique approach to the market. Berg Insight expects that several
of these initiatives will have a significant impact on the market already in
2014. The number of active mobile wallet users will increase to 29 million in
2017, whereas the in-store payments volume will grow to US$ 44 billion (€
33 billion) in the same year.
A prerequisite for commercial NFC mobile wallet services is that the necessary
software and hardware infrastructure is in place. Deployments of this
infrastructure have now gained substantial momentum. Global shipments of
NFC-enabled handsets grew by 300 percent in 2012 to 140 million units and are
forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 48 percent to reach 1.0 billion units by 2017.
The market for NFC-ready POS terminals grew fiercely in 2012 and annual
shipments doubled to an estimated 3.9 million units worldwide.
Global shipments of NFC-ready POS terminals are forecasted to grow at a CAGR
of 29.1 percent to reach 14.0 million units by 2017. The implementation of TSM
infrastructure for NFC wallet services is also progressing rapidly and there
are high levels of activity in Europe, parts of Asia-Pacific, Turkey and North
America. In fact, 2013 will be a record year for the rollout of TSM
infrastructure, as an expected 140 mobile network operators, banks, transport
companies and other companies will be using TSMs in commercially available
services at the end of the year. The number of SEI-TSM and SP-TSM projects
expected for the end of 2013 marks a substantial increase from just 57 live
projects at the end of 2012 and 25 live projects at the end of 2011. The
largest share of TSM projects has been implemented in Asia-Pacific, followed
by EU27+2 and North America.
This report answers the following questions:
- How are MNOs, banks and other companies addressing the mobile wallet
opportunity?
- Which are the leading technology vendors?
- How do the choices of the secure element issuer affect the options
available to service providers?
- What are the benefits and challenges associated with non-NFC mobile wallet
services?
- How many TSM projects will be commercially live at the end of 2013?
- When will the majority of all POS terminals incorporate NFC?
- What value-added services can be successfully incorporated in mobile
wallets?
- What are the prerequisites for mobile wallets to become mass market
services?
Table of Contents
Table of contents
List of figures
Executive summary
1. Introduction to mobile wallets
- 1.1. Introduction
- 1.1.1. Mobile wallets and value-added services
- 1.1.2. Opportunities to engage with consumers in new ways
- 1.1.3. Threats to the structure of the payments value chain
- 1.2. Overview of the card payments industry
- 1.2.1. The transaction process in card payments
- 1.2.2. Costs of a card payment transaction
- 1.2.3. Revenue distribution in the card payments industry
- 1.3. Card payments and household consumption expenditures
- 1.3.1. Breakdown of household consumption expenditures
- 1.3.2. Card payment volumes
- 1.4. Mobile payment technologies
- 1.4.1. NFC
- 1.4.2. 2D barcodes
- 1.4.3. Identification numbers and tags
- 1.4.4. Other technologies
2. Acceptance at the point of sale
- 2.1. Overview of the POS terminal market
- 2.1.1. Installed base of POS terminals
- 2.1.2. Form factors
- 2.2. Acceptance of mobile wallets at the POS
- 2.2.1. Rollout of NFC-ready terminals
- 2.2.2. Acceptance of Visa and MasterCard contactless payments
- 2.2.3. Acceptance of value-added services at the point of sale
- 2.3. POS terminal vendors
- 2.3.1. Equinox Payments
- 2.3.2. ID Tech
- 2.3.3. Ingenico
- 2.3.4. PAX Technology
- 2.3.5. Spire Payments
- 2.3.6. VeriFone
3. Mobile handsets
- 3.1. Overview of the mobile handset market
- 3.1.1. Mobile subscriptions and unique mobile users
- 3.1.2. Smartphone platform market shares
- 3.1.3. Smartphone ecosystem developments
- 3.2. NFC and secure elements in mobile handsets
- 3.2.1. NFC handset availability and sales accelerated in 2012
- 3.2.2. NFC solution architectures and chipsets for handsets
4. TSMs and mobile wallet platforms
- 4.1. Trusted service managers
- 4.1.1. Overview of SEI-TSM and SP-TSM solutions
- 4.1.2. Commercially live SEI-TSM projects
- 4.1.3. Commercially live SP-TSM projects
- 4.1.4. TSM projects live and under implementation
- 4.2. Mobile wallet platforms
- 4.2.1. Competitive landscape
- 4.2.2. Overview of a mobile wallet platform
- 4.2.3. Commercially live mobile wallet deployments
- 4.3. TSM and wallet platform vendor profiles
- 4.3.1. AIRTAG
- 4.3.2. C-SAM
- 4.3.3. Cardtek Group
- 4.3.4. Corfire
- 4.3.5. Gemalto
- 4.3.6. Giesecke & Devrient
- 4.3.7. Fiserv
- 4.3.8. MasterCard
- 4.3.9. Monitise
- 4.3.10. Oberthur Technologies
- 4.3.11. Morpho
- 4.3.12. Proxama
- 4.3.13. Sequent
- 4.3.14. SAP
- 4.3.15. Visa Europe
5. Mobile wallet operators
- 5.1. Mobile wallet ecosystems
- 5.1.1. Secure element issuers, service providers and wallet operators
- 5.1.2. Controlling the secure element
- 5.1.3. Universal wallets and merchant wallets
- 5.1.4. The effective addressable market for NFC wallet services is still
small
- 5.1.5. The benefits and challenges faced by non-NFC wallet services
- 5.1.6. The value of a mobile wallet ecosystem
- 5.2. NFC mobile wallet service architectures
- 5.2.1. Centralized architecture
- 5.2.2. Decentralized architecture
- 5.2.3. Hybrid architecture
- 5.2.4. Open architecture
- 5.3. Business models
- 5.3.1. Interchange and other acceptance fees
- 5.3.2. Secure element access
- 5.3.3. Presence in the wallet
- 5.3.4. Value-added services
- 5.3.5. Services to issuers and acquirers
- 5.3.6. Improve position in an adjacent market
- 5.4. Case studies
- 5.4.1. Apple launches Passbook
- 5.4.2. Google moves to a staged model for mobile wallet services
- 5.4.3. ING plans rollout of mobile wallet services in Europe
- 5.4.4. LevelUp drives traffic to merchants with offers and mobile
payments
- 5.4.5. Mobito is a mobile wallet available to everyone in the Czech
Republic
- 5.4.6. Orange expands wallet services and plans new launches
- 5.4.7. Samsung announces wallet and embedded secure element in new
devices
- 5.4.8. SEQR builds a new payment network and rolls out a mobile wallet
service
- 5.4.9. Swedbank launches mobile payment services in Sweden
- 5.4.10. Swedish MNOs launch mobile wallet joint venture
- 5.4.11. Telefónica sees mobile wallet opportunity in value-added
services
- 5.4.12. Turkcell pioneers mobile wallet services in Turkey
- 5.4.13. US carriers launch the Isis wallet service
- 5.4.14. US retailers form MCX consortium
- 5.4.15. Visa launches the V.me wallet with initial focus on eCommerce
6. Value-added services
- 6.1. The revenue potential of value-added services
- 6.1.1. Local advertising is big business
- 6.1.2. The use of location data allows more advertisers to reach their
customers
- 6.1.3. Indoor location technologies enable new marketing possibilities
- 6.1.4. Mobile phones enable personalized interactions with consumers in
real-time
- 6.1.5. High performance motivates premium rates
- 6.2. Types of value-added services
- 6.2.1. Coupons and offers
- 6.2.2. Loyalty solutions
- 6.2.3. Product information
- 6.2.4. Digital receipts and warranties
- 6.3. Case studies
- 6.3.1. Cardlytics enables card-linked offers based on purchase history
- 6.3.2. Foursquare generates more than 5 million check-ins per day
- 6.3.3. Groupon expands with new deal formats
- 6.3.4. Proximus Mobility delivers relevant ads to consumers' mobile
devices
- 6.3.5. Scanbuy enables measureable 2D barcode campaigns
- 6.3.6. Shopkick drives foot traffic and enables in-store navigation at
merchants
- 6.3.7. Starbucks creates mobile payment experiences linked to loyalty
programme
- 6.3.8. STM launches new reward programme with real-time personalized
offers
- 6.3.9. The Logic Group provides loyalty as a managed service
- 6.3.10. Vouchercloud locates the nearest discounts and provides
directions
- 6.3.11. Warrantify enables digital management of warranties and receipts
7. Conclusions and forecasts
- 7.1. Market trends and analysis
- 7.1.1. Network effects will limit the number of universal wallets in
each market
- 7.1.2. Mobile wallet operators need to build capabilities in value-added
services
- 7.1.3. The effective addressable market for NFC wallets is small but can
grow fast
- 7.1.4. Alternatives to mobile operator controlled secure elements emerge
- 7.1.5. The CP/CNP dichotomy will be revised
- 7.1.6. MasterCard introduces new rules that affect staged wallet
operators
- 7.2. Forecasts on infrastructure for NFC mobile wallet services
- 7.2.1. NFC-ready POS terminals
- 7.2.2. NFC-enabled handsets
- 7.2.3. Rollout of TSM infrastructure
- 7.3. The mobile wallet market in EU27+2
- 7.3.1. Market analysis
- 7.3.2. Forecasts
- 7.4. The mobile wallet market in North America
- 7.4.1. Market analysis
- 7.4.2. Forecasts
List of figures
- Figure 1.1: Typical payment transaction flow
- Figure 1.2: Visa interchange fees in the UK and the US
- Figure 1.3: Revenue distribution in card payments
- Figure 1.4: Card payments as a share of HCE and GDP (World 2011)
- Figure 1.5: Household consumption expenditures by service and product
(EU27 2011)
- Figure 1.6: Card payments in Europe and North America (2011)
- Figure 1.7: Card payment volumes (EU27 and NA 2007-2011)
- Figure 1.8: Different forms of 2D barcode payments
- Figure 2.1: Installed base of POS terminals (World Q4-2011)
- Figure 2.2: POS terminal density by country (World 2011)
- Figure 2.3: Stationary and mobile POS terminals
- Figure 2.4: mPOS devices
- Figure 2.5: NFC-ready POS terminals by region (World 2012)
- Figure 2.6: Visa payWave POS terminals (Europe 2012)
- Figure 2.7: PayPass and payWave POS terminals (World 2012)
- Figure 2.8: Acceptance of mobile wallets at the point of sale
- Figure 2.9: POS terminal shipments by manufacturer (World 2012)
- Figure 2.10: Equinox Payments POS terminals
- Figure 2.11: PAX Technology POS terminals
- Figure 3.1: Handset shipments by segment (World 2008-2012)
- Figure 3.2: Mobile subscriptions by region (World 2011-2012)
- Figure 3.3: Unique mobile users and mobile phones in use (World 2010-2012)
- Figure 3.4: Smartphone shipments by vendor and OS (World 2012)
- Figure 3.5: Number of NFC handsets available on the market (2010-2013)
- Figure 3.6: NFC handset vendor market shares (2010-2012)
- Figure 3.7: Examples of commercially available NFC-enabled handsets
(Q2-2013)
- Figure 3.8: NFC solution architectures in handsets
- Figure 3.9: Examples of NFC controllers and combo chipsets by vendor
- Figure 4.1: SEI-TSMs and SP-TSMs in the NFC ecosystem
- Figure 4.2: Commercially live SEI-TSM projects (World Q1-2013)
- Figure 4.3: Commercially live SP-TSM projects for banks (World Q1-2013)
- Figure 4.4: TSM projects live and under implementation (Q1-2013)
- Figure 4.5: Competitive landscape for wallet platform vendors
- Figure 4.6: Mobile wallet platform deployments by vendor (Q1-2013)
- Figure 4.7: Overview of TSM and wallet platform vendors (World 2013)
- Figure 5.1: Examples of universal wallets
- Figure 5.2: Examples of merchant wallets
- Figure 5.3: Effective addressable market for NFC mobile wallet services
- Figure 5.4: The value components of a mobile wallet ecosystem
- Figure 5.5: Centralized architecture for NFC services
- Figure 5.6: Decentralized architecture for NFC services
- Figure 5.7: Hybrid architecture for NFC services
- Figure 5.8: Open architecture
- Figure 5.9: LevelUp offering and FTUB white-label payment solution
- Figure 6.1: Cardlytics' offers in online and mobile banking
- Figure 6.2: Starbucks payments and rewards
- Figure 7.1: Effective addressable market for NFC wallets by region (World
Q1-2013)
- Figure 7.2: NFC POS terminal shipments by region (World 2011-2017)
- Figure 7.3: NFC POS terminal installed base by region (World 2011-2017)
- Figure 7.4: Forecasts on NFC handset shipments (World 2011-2017)
- Figure 7.5: Smartphone shipments (EU27+2 and NA 2011-2017)
- Figure 7.6: Installed base and penetration of NFC handsets (World
2011-2017)
- Figure 7.7: Rollout of TSM infrastructure (World 2011-2013)
- Figure 7.8: Mobile wallet users and transactions (EU27+2 2012-2017)
- Figure 7.9: Mobile wallet users and transactions (NA 2012-2017)
