電化 - Auto2x による展望 (～2025年)
Auto2x Perspectives in Electrification 2025
|電化 - Auto2x による展望 (～2025年)|
発行: Auto2x Ltd | Automotive Intelligence Consulting
ページ情報: 英文 50 Slides
This report focuses on how leading carmakers are developing and executing their strategies to better position themselves in the new era of electrified mobility. It also provides insights on how their model range and sales' mix by powertrain will change between 2015 and 2025.
Besides Tesla and Toyota's who lead BEVs and HEVs respectively, most brands are still in the early stages of electrified-to brand's European sales. But European Premium carmakers prepare a product offensive over the next 7 years announcing aggressive targets for up to one-third of sales coming from EVs.
Lithium-Ion battery technology is improving year by year with increased energy density and falling costs by KWh of energy. Balance of choices allowing lower costs, higher range, reduced battery size.
This report focuses on Premium car manufacturers' electrified portfolio, strategies, and technology roadmaps to comply with regulation and democratize BEV, PHEV, HEV, FC & other AFVs by '25.
While European carmakers boast about their plans to electrify their whole line-ups over the next decade, dedicated BEV architectures in most cases are coming by the end of this decade. In the meantime, amid pure diesel's future at risk - due to emission scandals (VW Group "Dieselgate"), city bans, and removal of tax incentives - they need pragmatic cost-efficient electrification solutions to meet efficiency goal until they develop a dedicated electric architecture.
Switching to 48 Volt electrical systems within a modified version of the existing ICE architecture (aka Mild-Hybrid), presents a cheaper and easily integrated alternative to a Full Hybrid and can delay the -eventually unavoidable- redesign of the architecture and tooling to accommodate a Hybrid or BEV variant.
Apart from efficiency, it allows carmakers to achieve enhanced performance without the need to switch to higher engine capacity. Finally, 48V systems can support the increasing powertrain content and augmented power requirements in modern cars.
The shift to 48V is evident in Mercedes-Benz's strategy, starting with its flagship S-Class from 2017, which is replacing its V6 engine with a new I6 family with 48V mHEV ISG (Integrated Starter operator). The brand has stated that a 48V set-up will in effect replace all of its non-plug-in hybrids. Also, Volvo will integrate Maxwell's ultracapacitor-based peak power subsystem into five mild-hybrid and plug-in hybrid Geely vehicle platforms for 2020.