表紙:自動車メーカー30社の自動運転ロードマップ (2025年まで)
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1023601

自動車メーカー30社の自動運転ロードマップ (2025年まで)

30 Carmakers Roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025

出版日: | 発行: Auto2x Ltd | Automotive Intelligence Consulting | ページ情報: 英文 170 Pages; 163 Tables & Graphs | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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自動車メーカー30社の自動運転ロードマップ (2025年まで)
出版日: 2021年06月30日
発行: Auto2x Ltd | Automotive Intelligence Consulting
ページ情報: 英文 170 Pages; 163 Tables & Graphs
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

当レポートでは、世界の大手自動車メーカー (OEM) 30社におけるADAS (先進運転支援システム) および自動運転 (AD) ポートフォリオの概略や、自動運転車の実用化に向けた戦略の展開状況、今後の自動化レベル別 (L0~L5) の実用化の見通し、目下の技術上の課題、問題解決のためのビジネスモデルについて考察すると共に、主要OEMによるL2~L5導入のための技術ロードマップを提供しています。

大手自動車メーカーの、自動運転の実用化に向けたロードマップと戦略

2025年までに欧州でレベル3の自動運転機能を提供するモデルの数

目次

第1章 自動運転の普及動向 (2016年~21年) (21ページ)

  • 運転支援システムは急速に民主化するが、導入時の技術的・経済的課題が未解決のまま残る
    • 規制により、「条件付きの目が離せない」への移行が遅れています。
    • ドイツの競争優位性:レベル3規制の更新の遅れによる阻害
    • 部分的に自動化されたモデルの可用性:2018年にほぼ倍増
    • レベル2の機能:カーライン全体に拡張され、コンパクト車のセグメントにも到達
    • ADASコンテンツの増加:より高い自律性のための技術的ギャップの解消
  • 欧州におけるSAEレベル2の実用化状況 (2016年~2020年):主要OEMにおけるTJA・SP・RPの可用性
    • 欧州におけるL2-Dの実情 (2016年~2020年):渋滞運転支援 (TJA) の可用性
    • L2-D技術の比較:速度・車線変更・ハンズオン検出・車線停止、および命名戦略
  • 欧州におけるL2-Pの実情 (2016年~2020年):セルフパークとリモートパーキングの可用性
    • 欧州の自動車販売におけるL2の浸透率 (2016年~2020年)
    • L2 OEMランキング:リーダーとフォロワー (2017年/2018年)
  • 欧州におけるSAEレベル1の現状 (2016年~2019年):OEMでのACC・AEB CUI・PA・LKAの可用性
  • 欧州におけるレベル0の浸透度 (2016年~2019年):BSM・DDM・FCW・LDW・TSR
    • 高級車OEM上位6社におけるADAS L0/L1機能の商品名
  • 主な自動運転・AMoDの試験運用 (2019年~2020年):誰が何をどこでテストするか
  • レベル3 (条件付き自動運転):HMI (ヒューマンマシンインターフェース) への影響

第2章 L3-L4の導入に関する規制・エンジニアリング・その他の課題 (17ページ)

  • なぜ規制が自動運転の展開の妨げとなるのか
  • 主要地域における自動運転 (AD) の規制と法的状態:概要 (2018年~2019年)
  • Reg.79の改訂:ステアリング装置により、欧州でのL3の展開が可能となる
    • 現在、ADASはあくまで補助的であり、手動ホイール操作が常に必要です
    • Reg.79修正:自動ステアリングシステムに向けた重要なステップ
    • UNECE Reg.79の改正:3点の懸念材料
  • 米国はFAVPでHAVへの道を切り開いた
    • 米国におけるAVテストの状況 (2016/2017年)
    • 米国政府の自動運転車政策に対する懸念
  • L3自動運転:2017年秋からドイツで合法化
  • L3展開に対するAD規制の影響
  • ADの導入などの重要な要素に関する技術的な課題
  • L3の責任とADのイベントデータレコーダーの役割
  • 車両のサイバーセキュリティ:自動車メーカーにとっての最優先事項
    • 主要市場におけるOEM・規制当局の活動の活発化
    • コネクテッドカーを保護するために必要なもの

第3章 自動運転の実用化のための、OEMのTier 1戦略 (9ページ)

  • 高度に自動化された運転に到達するための、漸進的/飛躍的アプローチ
  • 独自のADSプラットフォームの構築か、コラボレーションか
    • L3-5プラットフォーム・AMoD・HDマップのコンソーシアム
    • 主要なADASサプライヤーが、ADASの成長を収益化するのに適した立場を選ぶ理由
  • デジタル化による個別化太陽や新しいモビリティサービスの開封
  • L4/5を実用化するためのユースケースとビジネスモデル
    • 「サービスとしての」モビリティ (MaaS)

第4章 支援から自律へ:主要OEMにおけるL2-L4ロードマップ (22ページ)

  • L2-L4運転・駐車ロードマップの概要:OEM別、初期の実装段階
  • 自動運転技術ロードマップ:主要なADAS機能とセンサーセット
    • L4のロードマップの違い:乗用車とロボタクシー
  • 欧州・米国・中国における、L2-D~L4運転機能別の総売上の予測 (2013年~2025年)
    • 総合レベル2の自動運転の予測:欧州・米国・中国 (2013年~2025年)
    • 総合レベル3の自動運転車の販売予測 (2025年まで)
    • どの地域がレベル3の展開につながるか
    • レベル4の運転システムを搭載した自動車・LVの総販売台数 (2025年まで)
  • 欧州の自動運転の予測 (2025年まで):運転と駐車の機能
    • 運転機能に関する欧州のADロードマップ:L2-D~L4-D
    • 欧州の自動車販売の市場シェア:自動化レベル別 (2015年~2025年)
    • EuroNCAPの2025ロードマップへの影響 (2025年)
    • 欧州の自動車販売における部分自動化 (L2-D) の予測 (2013年~2025年)
    • 欧州の自動車販売における条件付き自動化 (L3-D) の予測 (2018年~2025年)
    • 欧州のL4-Dの販売予測 (2018年~2025年)
    • 駐車機能に関する欧州のADロードマップ:L2-PからL4-P
  • 米国の自動運転:運転機能に関する予測 (2025年まで)
    • 米国国内の小型車 (LV) の販売台数・普及率:レベル2~L4の運転機能別 (2013年/2025年)
    • 米国国内の小型車の販売台数:L2-D機能付きの場合 (2013年~2025年)
    • 米国国内の小型車の販売台数:L3-D機能付きの場合 (2025年まで)
    • 米国国内の小型車の販売台数:L4-D機能付きの場合 (2013年~2025年)
  • 中国の自動運転市場の予測:L2-D~L4の運転機能別 (2013年~2021年)
  • 乗用車向けLiDARの予測 (2030年まで)

第5章 主要OEMのADAS・ADのポートフォリオとロードマップ (48ページ)

  • ADAS機能の可用性:モデルの範囲とセンサーセット
  • 自動運転の見通し:製品ロードマップとモデル範囲、ADレベル別 (2016年~2025年)
    • Alfa Romeo
    • Audi
    • BAIC
    • Bentley
    • BMW
    • BYD
    • Cadillac
    • Changan
    • FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
    • Ford
    • General Motors: Cadillac
    • Geely
    • Genesis
    • Great Wall
    • Honda & Acura
    • Hyundai
    • Infinity
    • Jaguar Land Rover
    • Jeep
    • Lexus
    • Mercedes-Benz
    • Mini
    • Nissan
    • Porsche
    • PSA
    • Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
    • SAIC
    • Seat
    • Skoda
    • Subaru
    • Tesla
    • Toyota
    • Volvo
    • VW

第6章 付録 (8ページ)

  • 他のOEMの自動運転ロードマップ:サポート情報
  • 欧州におけるモデルの可用性:自動化のレベル別 (2015年~2025年)
    • レベル2の運転機能付きモデル:欧州 (2015年~2025年)
    • レベル2の駐車機能付きモデル:欧州 (2015年~2025年)
    • レベル3の運転機能付きモデル:欧州 (2015年~2025年)
    • レベル4の運転機能付きモデル:欧州 (2015年~2025年)
目次

This 50,000-word report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 30 leading brands, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM.

Leading carmakers' roadmap and strategy to commercialize Automated Driving

2021 will see regulation finally allowing the introduction of LEVEL 3 Automated Driving technology that allows drivers to take their "eyes-off" the road under specific conditions

In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation on Automated Lane Keep Systems will allow Level 3 deployment in countries such as Japan, France, and Germany among other European countries, probably China from January 2021 - but not the USA.

The new regulation comes almost 3 years after ongoing technical discussions about "automated steering" requirements. The delay has greatly affected the Automated Driving strategies of carmakers.

However, technologically, Audi was the first carmaker to announce technological capabilities for the transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3). Audi was the first carmaker to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of "eyes-off-the road" technology in Europe was delayed to mid-to-end 2021.

No of models offering Level 3 automated driving
features in Europe by 2025

In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be "distracted".

But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain "available" to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.

Nissan's Pro-Pilot 2 available only in the Skyline in Japan, fits the definition of a Level 3 system. Also, Tesla's Navigate on Autopilot in the USA could fit the definition. Automated Driving Regulation in the USA is different compared to Europe, Japan, and China with USA allowing more flexibility to carmakers to deploy L3 systems.

The differences in regulatory and legal framework across leading car markets could result in a lack of harmonization and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What's more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.

This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era

Carmakers, Tier-1s, and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonization will be a challenge

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what's legal?

  • What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?
  • Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?

Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.

A higher level of automation requires augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.

Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.

  • How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?
  • How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.

What this report delivers

This report focuses on leading car manufacturers' ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.

Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

  • Learn about the status of vehicle automation between 2016 and 2019:
    • What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, US and China? We provide in depth segmentation by SAE Level;
    • What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales?
    • Which OEMs lead L2 deployment in 2017-19 and why?
    • What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
  • Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
    • What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
    • What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
    • Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
    • What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
  • Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
    • How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
    • OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
    • Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
  • Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
    • Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
    • What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs' model range during 2016-25?
    • Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
    • Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness

Table of Contents

1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-21 (21 pages)

  • 1. The democratization of driver assistance systems accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges persist
    • 1. Regulation is delaying the transition to "conditional eyes-off the road"
    • 2. Germany's competitive advantage hindered by slow Level 3 regulatory update
    • 3. Availability of Partially-automated models almost doubled in 2018
    • 4. Level 2 features expand across carlines reaching the compact segment
    • 5. ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher autonomy
  • 2. Commercialization status of SAE Level 2 in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs
    • 1. L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
    • 2. Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
  • 3. L2-P status in Europe 2016-20: Self-park & Remote Parking availability
    • 4. L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-20
    • 5. L2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders & followers
  • 3. SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016-19: ACC, AEB CUI, PA & LKA availability in OEMs
  • 4. Level 0 penetration in Europe in 2016-19: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, and TSR
    • Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
  • 5. Major Automated Driving & AMoD pilots in 2019-20: who tests what and where
  • 6. The implications of Level 3-Conditionally automated driving to HMI

2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L4 (17 pages)

  • 1. Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
  • 2. Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographies in 2018-19
  • 3. The amendment of Reg.79-Steering equipment will allow L3 deployment in Europe
    • 1. Today ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel are always required
    • 2. Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems
    • 3. Three concerns arising from the UNECE Reg.79's amendment
  • 4. The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with the FAVP
    • 1. State of AV testing in the United States in 2016/17
    • 2. Concern over U.S Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
  • 5. L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn 2017
  • 6. The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
  • 7. Technical challenges for deployment and other key factors affecting AD adoption
  • 8. Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
  • 9. Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a top priority for carmakers
    • 1. OEM and regulatory activity heats-up in major car markets
    • 2. What is needed to secure Connected Cars

3. OEM-Tier 1 strategy to commercialize Autonomous Driving (9 pages)

  • 1. Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly automated driving
  • 2. Building your own ADS platform vs collaboration
    • 1. Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD and HD maps
    • 2. Learn why leading ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetise ADAS growth
  • 3. Digitalisation unlocks personalisation & new mobility services
  • 4. Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5
    • 1. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L4 roadmap from leading OEMs (22 pages)

  • 1. Overview of L2-L4 Driving and Parking roadmap by OEM at the earliest implementation
  • 2. Automated Driving technology roadmap: key ADAS features and sensor set
    • The differences in roadmaps between L4 in passenger cars vs robotaxis
  • 3. Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in Europe, USA, China 2013-2025
    • Aggregate Level 2-Driving forecast in EU, USA, and China between 2013 & 2025
    • Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025
    • Learn which geographies will lead to Level 3 deployment
    • Aggregate sales of cars & LVs equipped with Level 4-Driving systems by 2025
  • 4. European Automated Driving forecasts up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
    • European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
    • Market shares of European car sales by the level of automation during 2015-2025
    • The impact of EuroNCAP's 2025 roadmap
    • Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in European car sales 2013-25
    • Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in European car sales 2018-25
    • European L4-D sales forecast 2018-25
    • European AD roadmap for parking features: L2-P to L4-P
  • 5. USA Automated Driving forecast for Driving features up to 2025
    • USA LV sales & penetration by Level 2 to L4 Driving features, 2013 and 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L2-D features between 2013 & 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-D features by 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L4-D features between 2013 & 2025
  • 6. China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-Driving features 2013-2021
  • 7. Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars

5. ADAS&AD portfolio & roadmap by leading OEM (48 pages)

  • 1. ADAS feature availability in model range and sensor set
  • 2. Automated Driving outlook: product roadmap and model range by AD level 2016-2025
    • 1. Alfa Romeo
    • 2. Audi
    • 3. BAIC
    • 4. Bentley
    • 5. BMW
    • 6. BYD
    • 7. Cadillac
    • 8. Changan
    • 9. FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
    • 10. Ford
    • 11. General Motors: Cadillac
    • 12. Geely
    • 13. Genesis
    • 14. Great Wall
    • 15. Honda & Acura
    • 16. Hyundai
    • 17. Infinity
    • 18. Jaguar Land Rover
    • 19. Jeep
    • 20. Lexus
    • 21. Mercedes-Benz
    • 22. Mini
    • 23. Nissan
    • 24. Porsche
    • 25. PSA
    • 26. Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
    • 27. SAIC
    • 28. Seat
    • 29. Skoda
    • 30. Subaru
    • 31. Tesla
    • 32. Toyota
    • 33. Volvo
    • 34. VW

6. Appendix (8 pages)

  • 1. Supporting information for other OEMs' Automated Driving roadmap.
  • 2. Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 1. Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 2. Models with L2-Parking features in Europe up to 2021
    • 3. Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • 4. Models with Level 4-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025