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パワートレインの見通し:動向とリスク

Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks - Technical Trends and Developments in the Five Major Powertrain Areas, Analysis, Discussion of Recent Events and Developments, and Assessment of their Likely Impact

発行 Autelligence 商品コード 388251
出版日 ページ情報 英文 117 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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パワートレインの見通し:動向とリスク Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks - Technical Trends and Developments in the Five Major Powertrain Areas, Analysis, Discussion of Recent Events and Developments, and Assessment of their Likely Impact
出版日: 2019年02月27日 ページ情報: 英文 117 Pages
概要

将来的な自動車部門の主要ディスラプターとして、自動運転車や完全電化が注目を集めています。

当レポートでは、将来のパワートレインとして、内燃機関 (ICE) 、トランスミッション、制御システム、バッテリー、電気モーターに焦点を当てて、開発動向とその影響について検証して、体系的な情報を提供しています。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 世界の規制要件が開発を後押し

  • 基準と温室効果ガス (GHG) 排出量
  • 燃費と温室効果ガス (GHG) 排出量の規制
  • 試験サイクル
  • 燃料の入手可能性と値ごろ感
  • ゼロ排出車 (ZEV)
  • サマリー

第3章 xEV市場の現状

第4章 小型車向け内燃機関 (ICE) の開発

  • ガソリンICE
  • GDIの燃費
  • 技術のロードマップ
  • ガソリンの潜在的ディスラプターとイノベーション
  • 小型車向けディーゼルエンジン開発
  • ディーゼル技術:強みと弱み
  • 価格と需要が成長抑制要因
  • ディーゼルの予測と動向
  • サマリー

第5章 電池の貯蔵

  • 背景とバッテリー:開発の進捗
  • 経済性と価格
  • バッテリーの進捗と予測
  • バッテリーサプライヤー
  • エネルギー電池における潜在的ディスラプターとイノベーション
  • 価格と予測
  • バッテリーの充電
  • サマリー

第6章 電気自動車のビジネスモデルとユーザー受け入れ

  • 消費者の考え方
  • 消費者の受け入れモデル
  • サービスとしてのモビリティ
  • 個人向けBEV
  • 合成燃料
  • サマリー

第7章 動向と予測:シナリオのアプローチ

  • 共通の前提条件
  • ローテクシナリオ:技術も電化も停滞
  • ハイテクシナリオ:技術も電化も加速

付録A:パワートレインシステムの概要

付録B:小型車向けトランスミッション

付録C:小型車向け電気駆動システムの開発

企業プロファイル

  • BorgWarner
  • Bosch
  • Continental
  • Delphi
  • Eaton
  • 日立オートモーティブシステムズ
  • Honeywell
  • Magneti Marelli
  • Ricardo
  • Schaeffler
  • Valeo
  • ZF Friedrichshafen
目次

Attention has recently been focused on self-driving vehicles and full electrification as major disruptors for the auto sector in the next decade.

But for the next several years the industry is likely to be dominated by radical changes occurring WITHIN the internal combustion (IC)-engined automotive model, as new engine management and optimization technologies and partial electrification address changes demanded by regulators and markets, such as achieving carbon emission reductions and fuel economy gains despite the sidelining of diesels.

Now updated for February 2019 with a fresh look at EV vehicle categories, architecture and commercial use, "Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks" examines the impact of these developments on the five major elements of the future powertrain:

  • IC engines
  • Transmissions
  • Control Systems
  • Batteries
  • Electric Motors

The report looks at technical trends and developments in each of these areas, and projects how those they might develop through to 2025 and 2030.

The report takes a unique approach to assessing the central track of the industry's technological roadmap - and then discusses the threats and challenges to that projection as way of analyzing the risks and opportunities that will dominate the next decade.

In other words it establishes the consensus view, and then challenges it by identifying key uncertainties and potential disruptors.

Each chapter summarizes current developments for each of the technology areas, and then pulls them together into plausible, alternate scenarios to the central outlook to help planners "bookend" the best and worst cases.

The report builds on a series of in-depth studies of different powertrain technologies, as well as Autelligence surveys of experts.

Who is the report for?

Chief Executive Officers, Marketing Directors, Business and Sales Development executives, Product and Project management, Purchasing and Technical Directors that need a powerful third party perspective and overview of the trends and issues in their sector and the potential ramifications for their business.

Author of this report:Bruce Morey

image1

Bruce MoreyWith over twenty five years of experience in technology development, research, and management, Bruce Morey brings a unique perspective to looking at the future of automotive engineering. Sixteen years in the defense industry exposed him to a number of forward-looking methodologies, including scenario and contingency planning. Six years in automotive product development at Ford Motor Company gave him an inside look at the day-to-day challenges and pressures of delivering quality vehicles and engines that customers want to buy, at an affordable price to both customer and company.


Mr Morey has published articles have covered computer simulation in support of engine development, future fuels, fuel cell vehicles, manufacturing, automotive engineering and product development. He is also the author of two books, Automotive 2030 North America and Future Automotive Fuels and Energy, both published by SAE International.

Mr. Morey earned both Bachelors and Masters degrees in mechanical engineering from the University of Michigan. Mr. Morey is a member of SAE International and the Society of Manufacturing Engineers.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Overview of Market Drivers
  • 1.2 Scenarios and Developments - The Consensus View
  • 1.3 The Shape of Technical Disruptors and Innovations
  • 1.4 Key Questions, Uncertainties, and Trends

Chapter 2. Regulatory requirements worldwide drive development

  • 2.1 Criteria and GHG emissions
  • 2.2 Fuel economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Regulations
  • 2.3 Test Cycles - The Day of Reckoning
  • 2.4 Fuel availability and affordability
  • 2.5 Forcing the Issue - Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandates
  • 2.5.1 California ZEV program
  • 2.5.2 China NEV program
  • Chapter 2 Summary

Chapter 3. Current State of the Market for xEVs

Chapter 4. Internal Combustion Engine Developments for Light Duty Vehicles

  • 4.1 Gasoline ICE Engines
  • 4.2 GDI Better Fuel Economy, More Soot
  • 4.3 Technology Map - a Quilt, not a Blanket
  • 4.4 Gasoline Potential Disruptors and Innovations
  • 4.5 Diesel Engine Developments for Light Duty Vehicles
  • 4.6 Diesel Technology - Strengths and Weaknesses
  • 4.7 Growth Constrained by High Diesel Fuel Prices and Demand
  • 4.8 Diesel Forecasts and Trends
  • Chapter 4 Summary - Forecasts and Uncertainties

Chapter 5. Electric battery storage

  • 5.1 Background and Batteries - Development Progresses
  • 5.2 Economics and Price - is $100/kWh valid?
  • 5.3 Battery Progress and Projections
  • 5.4 Battery Suppliers
  • 5.5 Potential Disruptors and Innovations in Energy Batteries
  • 5.6 Prices and Projections
  • 5.7 Charging a Battery
  • Chapter 5 Summary - Forecasts and Uncertainties for electric battery storage

Chapter 6. Business Models and User Acceptance of Electric Vehicles

  • 6.1 Consumer Attitudes Count
  • 6.2 Consumer Acceptance Models
  • 6.3 Mobility as a Service
  • 6.4 Personal BEVs, Fun tempered by Range
  • 6.5 Synthetic fuels
  • Chapter 6 Summary - Forecasts and Uncertainties

Chapter 7. Trends and Projections - A Scenario Approach

  • 7.1 Common Assumptions
  • 7.2 Low Tech Scenario - Less technology and electrification than the Consensus View
  • 7.3 High Tech Scenario - Accelerated development of high tech combustion and electrified technologies

Appendix A: Powertrain systems overview

  • A.1 Electrification of the powertrain
  • A.2 Technology and architectures

Appendix B: Transmissions for light duty vehicles

  • B.1 Types of transmissions - terms of reference
  • Appendix B Summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Appendix C: Electric drive system developments for light duty vehicles

  • C.1 Electric motors
  • C.2 Power electronics
  • C.3 Integrated units
  • C.4 48V hybrid developments
  • Appendix C Summary - forecasts and uncertainties for electric traction drive systems

Appendix D: February 2019 Quarterly Research Update

  • Commercial Vehicles Take the Lead
  • Automakers Exploit the Strengths of Battery Electric Vehicles?
  • Market Trends - China Dominates

Company profiles

  • BorgWarner
  • Bosch
  • Continental
  • Delphi
  • Eaton
  • Hitachi Automotive Systems
  • Honeywell
  • Magneti Marelli
  • Ricardo
  • Schaeffler
  • Valeo
  • ZF Friedrichshafen

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1.1 A model of competing development drivers that is no longer the sole model
  • Figure 1.2 An emerging model that may be more important than the triangle model is for powertrains to balance more complex needs, especially Mobility-as-a-Service
  • Figure 1.3 Data presenting Continental's 2015 Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2024, referred to in this report as the 2015 Consensus View
  • Figure 1.4 Data presenting Continental's 2017 Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2030, referred to in this report as the 2017 Consensus View
  • Figure 1.5 The consensus view as shown by Continental's projections have increased their predictions of vehicle electrification by 15% in 2025 in just the last two years
  • Figure 2.1 Summary and timing of important worldwide emissions regulations
  • Figure 2.2 Why Chinese regulations matter - the Chinese market is now the largest in the world and expected to stay that way
  • Figure 2.3 A concise summary of how criteria pollutants are challenging the worldwide automotive industry
  • Figure 2.4 While regulations are getting tighter, there is a limit to the effectiveness of ever stricter regulations. This data shows how much cleaner the US EPA 2025 mandates are compared to 2015, and in absolute terms
  • Figure 2.5 US EPA CAFÉ for 2017-2025 adjust needed CO2 emissions (fuel economy) based on a vehicle's footprint
  • Figure 2.6 Emissions and fuel economy regulations required a defined test procedure to ensure they are being met and to ensure all vehicles were being judged equally
  • Figure 2.7 An example of a test cycle conducted on a chassis dyno, this is the proposed worldwide, harmonized test cycle as of 2013
  • Figure 2.8 The intent is for RDE to not replace dyno tests but complement them
  • Figure 2.9 Portable Emissions Measurement Systems, or PEMS, will be a key element in RDE test
  • Figure 2.10 Crude oil prices adjust for inflation show a steep drop in 2015 . As of 2018, projections are for oil prices to hover around $60/bbl for the foreseeable future
  • Figure 2.11 Sales projections from CARB using a mid-range, most likely scenario for ZEV regulatory compliance in California
  • Figure 2.12 ZEV model diversity is growing significantly through 2021
  • Figure 3.1 The worldwide market for plug-ins, including BEVs and PHEVs, shows that China has grown in 4 years to be the dominant market for plug-in vehicle volumes
  • Figure 3.2 Sales of HEV vehicles sold in the US wax and wane, in concert with inflation adjusted fuel prices among other factors
  • Figure 4.1 Efficient turbocharged gasoline direct engines, GTDI, make engines more efficient over a wider range of loads and speeds, improving fuel economy
  • Figure 4.2 Note the vast differences in take rates for various engine technologies by region predicted by IHS Automotive by 2020
  • Figure 4.3 Ricardo advocates incremental costs towards achieving needed improvements in fuel economy
  • Figure 4.4 The Achates OPGCI engine prototype in a Ford F-150 shows the practicality of such advanced engines in practice
  • Figure 4.5 ExxonMobil projects that commercial transport will drive future fuel demand, driving up a demand for diesel
  • Figure 4.6 Steady improvements in fuel consumption per unit of horsepower is shown
  • Figure 5.1 This illustration shows the inner workings of a lithium-ion battery
  • Figure 5.2 Notional diagram of battery operation for the three recognized modes of electrified powertrains, illustrating why batteries are oversized
  • Figure 5.3 Specification for commercializing a suitable battery for an electric vehicle
  • Figure 5.4 Using basic assumptions, $100/kWh provides cost parity to a fuel-efficient passenger car in North America
  • Figure 5.5 Using the same cost model using prices average in Germany and $250/kWh seems a reasonable cost for battery storage to achieve price parity with gasoline passenger cars
  • Figure 5.6 Status of energy batteries against end-of-life goals as evaluated by USABC and USCAR in December 2015
  • Figure 5.7 Lithium -ion installed battery manufacturing capacity by supplier, Q! 2017 in GWh
  • Figure 5.8 Motivation for pursuing advanced electric batteries - the potential to rival gasoline energy density
  • Figure 5.9 According to Bloomberg in 2016, automotive traction battery in 2020 were estimated to be above $200/kWh on average
  • Figure 5.10 The latest calculations to date and future projections of battery costs for use in xEVs from Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • Figure 5.11 The authors of an academic study pointed out the that future projected cost of Li-Ion batteries in 2020 decrease over time
  • Figure 5.12 Current cost projections show the industry closing in on USABC EV battery goals
  • Figure 6.1 In a survey conducted by Morpace, the conventional ICE engine remains consumers number one choice, followed closely by hybrids and GTDI as second and third
  • Figure 6.2 Impact of government incentives can be powerful . As an example, when Norway in 2015 enacted legislation favoring plug-ins over battery electric vehicles, the vehicle mix changed dramatically
  • Figure 6.3 The Rogers Innovation Diffusion curve is well accepted approach to understanding the demographics of potential users
  • Figure 6.4 Global sales of PHEVs and BEVs as a share of the market less than 1 .5%
  • Figure 6.5 A study by U .C . Davis showed that the same group of people in California were purchasers of plug-in electric vehicles
  • Figure 6.6 With an appropriately sized battery for a range of 150 miles, a BEV costs less to operate than a comparable ICE powered car
  • Figure 6.7 Data compiled by General Motors indicates that greater than 70% of potential EV buyers would be satisfied with a BEV that had a range greater than 200 miles on a single charge
  • Figure 7.1 Continental's vision of a light duty market dominated by conventional powertrains by 2025 is commonly held in the industry, within certain parameters (reformatted), in millions of units worldwide
  • Figure 7.2 A variant chart from the Consensus view of light duty powertrains based on a scenario with drivers that favor lower technology powertrains, in millions of units worldwide
  • Figure 7.3 An aggressively optimistic projection of electrified and high technology light duty powertrain distributions as a variant on the Consensus Model, in millions of units worldwide
  • Figure A.1 Conventional powertrain systems have a single source of energy and torque, generated from an internal combustion engine transferred via the crankshaft
  • Figure A.2 According to BCG, improvements to powertrain - especially engines - outweighs all other potential conventional improvements automakers could make
  • Figure A.3 Generalised torque/speed curve . All ICEs, particularly gasoline, exhibit BSFC maps like this with worse efficiency under low, or part load
  • Figure A.4 MY 2014 vehicle production that meets future US CAFE CO2 emissions targets, from 2016 to the proposed 2025 targets, according to data from the US EPA
  • Figure A.5 An example of some of the most common architecture models for "full" HEV systems
  • Figure A.6 This chart from Continental is good way to view the various options of electrification, from simple start-stop to a full electric vehicle, in terms of fuel economy at the point of use
  • Figure A.7 Comparison of idealised torque curve for an electric motor and an ICE engine, showing how they complement each other
  • Figure A.8 The decision landscape between electrification and conventional improvements to meet future fuel economy and CO2 regulations
  • Figure B.1 Global transmission sales (millions) projected to 2020
  • Figure B.2 The differences in the number of speeds in an automatic planetary gear transmission means the engine will operate more frequently at its most fuel efficient load/speed point
  • Figure C.1 The basic electric drive traction system, here shown as part of a hybrid electric system
  • Figure C.2 GKN Automotive showcased its new eTwinsterR torque-vectoring electric drive system for hybrid vehicles
  • Figure C.3 ZF's electric drive system positioned centrally on the axle is also available as a unit fully integrated into a new modular rear axle concept
  • Figure C.4 Some in the industry are using the term 'P4 Hybrid' to describe the electrified axle configuration
  • Figure C.5 Continental predicts that saving fuel increases with each level of integration . Energy management can make more comprehensive use of an ICE and electrical energy

Table of Tables

  • Table 2.1 Forecasts of key market driver questions summarized with probabilities assigned
  • Table 4.1 Forecasts of key ICE technology questions summarized with probabilities assigned
  • Table 5.1 Approximate recharging times per SAE for PEVs and BEVs
  • Table 5.2 Forecasts of key battery electric storage questions summarized with probabilities assigned
  • Table 6.1 Summary of Potential Disruptors
  • Table C.1 Essential elements of electric traction drive systems
  • Table C.2 Essential elements of electric traction drive systems with "stretch"
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