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48Vの課題と見通し:市場機会の開放 - 48V電源システムにおける現在・近未来の動向

48V Issues and Prospects: Unlocking the Opportunities - Current and Near Future Developments in 48V Power Supply Systems

出版日: | 発行: Autelligence | ページ情報: 英文 111 Pages | 納期: 即日から翌営業日

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48Vの課題と見通し:市場機会の開放 - 48V電源システムにおける現在・近未来の動向
出版日: 2018年11月30日
発行: Autelligence
ページ情報: 英文 111 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
  • 全表示
  • 概要
  • 目次
概要

当レポートでは、自動車メーカー/既存サプライヤー/新規参入企業向け48V電源システムの技術・市場動向について調査分析し、その機会と課題、新しいシステムや応用に焦点を当てて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 48Vに関する自動車産業の評価

  • 48Vの将来性:業界関係者の共通見解
  • コンセンサスの変化? - 近年の調査結果の比較
    • 全般的なコメント
    • 48Vは当初の予定よりも迅速に普及するのか?
    • 48Vの進歩を実際に促しているのは何か?
    • 社会的・政治的不安定性が、市場成長にも影響しているのか?
    • 排出規制以外の面での48Vの役割:出力制御など
  • 不確実性に関する重要な問いかけ

第3章 世界市場の促進・抑制要因:概略

  • 電気自動車 (EV) 向け補助金:48V MHEVに対する正負双方の影響
  • 48Vの売り上げ拡大に貢献している傾向の変化
    • 12V SSVを凌駕する48V MHEV
    • 高級車市場の成長:48Vに対する恩恵の有無
    • 自動運転車と48V電化:お似合いの組み合わせ
  • 共通見解を一変し得る、世界規模の不確実性
    • 燃料は安いが、今後もそうなのか?
    • ディーゼル/ICE (内燃機関) を規制したい政治家の意図
    • トランプ政権による、温室効果ガス (GHG) と雇用を取引する
    • 中国市場の革命的変化:まだ48Vに存在の予知はあるのか?
    • インドでの48V MHEVの死滅:インドの将来性はEVと共にあり
  • 結局コストダウンの問題になる:消費者は今後、48Vにどれだけ支出するのか?
  • サマリー:48Vの将来性を左右する、世界的な不確実性

第4章 どの戦略にも当てはまる、48Vの柔軟な構成要素

  • 全ては地球を守るために:排出削減における48Vの役割
    • 一部の市場での排気トラブル発生の兆し
    • 新たな排出検査過程による、全ての規則の書き換え
    • ハイブリッド車 (HV) 移行の必要は無し:排出規制をクリアする48V
    • 48Vはディーゼルを救うのか、取って代わるのか?
  • 48Vパワーネットに適した小型エンジン
    • 48V eスーパーチャージャー:どの分野でも最適となる方式
    • 48Vトルク・ブースト:運転に喜びを取り戻す
    • 電化による寄生損失の排除
  • より多くの鋏とより少ないステーキ:高級車ブランドでも標準機能として48Vを販売するのか?
  • 48Vの標準装備となる快適性機能
  • 自動運転車:スマートカーはより多くの電力を要する
  • 自動車メーカーの48V戦略や予測を左右する不確実性

第5章 自動車メーカーの真意

  • Mercedes-Benz:全モデルのISGつき方式への移行
  • 大衆車における48V MHEVのコスト効率性
    • Renaulのマイルドハイブリッドソリューション:単純だが効率的
    • FCA:マイルドハイブリッド・ピックアップに軸足を移す
  • 自動車メーカーのラインナップ:48V対応新モデルの展開
  • サマリー:不確実性と将来予測

第6章 48V技術の境界線を押し広げるプロジェクト

  • ディーゼルはまだ有効に働く:ADEPTプロジェクト
  • Schaeffler:全輪駆動 (AWD) 対応の高性能48Vのコンセプト
  • THOMSONプロジェクト:EU域内での48V迅速開発のためのシンクタンク
    • Ricardo:時間・費用を節約するための理想的モデルの創出
  • サマリー:不確実性と将来予測

第7章 48V - 将来的な主要技術 (2030年までとそれ以降)

  • 48Vの心臓部:バッテリーがペースを左右する
    • 鉛蓄電池はいまだに適切か?
    • リチウムイオン電池:人気の高い化学物質
    • 新型の陽極材料は、より多くの電力を生み出すのか?
    • 48Vバッテリーは25kWも電力を生み出す!
    • リチウム硫黄電池の溶解能力の損失
    • IONICS:次世代への道を切り開く
    • 革命的な固体電池による、更なる挑戦
    • ニッケル・3D亜鉛技術は、リチウムイオン電池を過去のものとするのか?
    • フロー電池は自動車の中でも動くのか?
  • パワーエレクトロニクスに革命をもたらす材料とデザイン
    • 新型素材が切り開く、より高いスイッチング周波数への道
    • 二重電圧システムにおける、エネルギー流量の維持
  • 48Vロータリーマシン技術の将来性
  • 12VマイルドハイブリッドEV (12V MHEV) への回帰
    • サマリー:不確実性と将来予測

第8章 強力な電気自動車 (EV) としての48V:Volaboのコンセプト

  • 180kWもの電力を生み出す48Vモーター
  • 大電流を処理し得る独自のコントロール機能
  • 送電線の扱いについて
  • ポストMHEV:高電流48Vが優れた性能を示す
  • サマリー:不確実性と将来予測

付録A:調査回答者の人数・構成

付録B:形状 - 48Vマイクロハイブリッドの核心

付録B:サマリー:不確実性と将来予測

情報源

目次

48V - a key automotive technology of the 2020s

48V is clearly going to be a very important technology in the coming decade. Some senior OEM executives say it should be one of those fundamental technologies that should be adopted by all ICE vehicles in the future. Key benefits for 48V are that it is is a system that augments combustion engines to reduce fuel consumption, reduces particulate emissions in diesels and improves the driver experience by increasing the responsiveness of the vehicle. 48V systems can help OEMs deliver most of the reductions in CO2 emisisons required by regulations at a fraction of the cost of full electrification - a real benefit in a world of political uncertainty about the future of EV subsidies - and without having to tackle the barriers to adoption (such as range and cost) thrown up by more fully electric solutions.

What this report offers

The report offers insight into the opportunities and challenges offered by the development of 48V Power Supply Systems for automotive OEMs, established suppliers and potential new entrants. It looks at new systems and new applications that are enabled by higher voltage power systems - and the ripple effects on electrical and electronic architectures and feature configurations that could follow.

Who buys Autelligence reports?

Currently over 250 companies have corporate or individual subscriptions to reports from Autelligence. Most reports are bought by CEOs, other C-level executives, partners, directors, vice-presidents and country managers at automotive suppliers across marketing, engineering, R&D, and purchasing functions. Subscribers also include OEMs, financial analysts and management consultants.

48V systems will get better

There is a lot of room for improvement in the technology, according to two leading engineering consultants familiar with the area:

Jason McConnell, Business Unit Director at IAV Automotive Engineering:

"People are looking to integrate technologies, putting the battery, power electronics from the inverter and the DC-DC converter in one box so you've got less cabling. 48V technologies can be adopted over a large number of vehicles; there's definitely reusability and scalability in most designs."

Tomasz Salamon, Engineering Operations Manager for Hybrid and Electric Systems at Ricardo: "Eventually we'll see more components going to 48V, which gives you smaller and more-efficient electrical components-and more power capability." And these benefits will be enhanced by scale effects.

Rudolf Stark, head of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle Business Unit at Continental has said that his company expects "good market penetration across all vehicle segments, from A to D." That, he says, will "bring large quantities of the technology to market" and "ensure cost-effective production".

Bonus 48V launch database

48-Volt power supply system database (June 2018) includes almost 600 announcements involving 48 -Volt Power supply systems, from May 2016 to June 2018. The majority of the announcements are new vehicle launches by OEMs. The spreadsheet also includes major announcements by suppliers such as Continental, Bosch, and Delphi, as well as other companies such as engineering consultancies.

OEM groups and brands are identified for each of the announcements and where a new model is involved the model and variant is identified. The list is searchable by country. For each announcement the list provides the headline summary and a link to the relevant news story.

Who is the report for?

Chief Executive Officers, Marketing Directors, Business and Sales Development executives, Product and Project management, Purchasing and Technical Directors that need a powerful third party perspective and overview of the trends and issues in their sector and the potential ramifications for their business.

Author of this report: Peter Els

image1

Peter Els has been involved in the automotive industry since 1979 when he joined Nissan South Africa's product development team as an engineer. His later professional career was spent in engineering positions at OEM's such as Daimler Chrysler, Fiat, Toyota, Nissan and Beijing Automotive Works. He's also been technical sales and export manager at Robert Bosch South Africa, where rotating equipment and electronic control units were developed for local and international OEMs. After years in an industry driven by information gathering and communication Peter began writing technical reports and articles on various aspects of the industry and the cars it produces. Since then he has produced a broad spectrum of automotive analysis work on technology and the automotive industry, for several publishers focusing on the automotive industry.


Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction

  • 1.1 The 42V revolution that never was
  • 1.2 What did we learn from the 42V exercise?
  • 1.3 Why 48V, and why now?
    • 1.3.1 48V bridges the gap between our legacy and our future

Chapter 2: The automotive industry's assessment of 48V

  • 2.1 The future of 48V: the industry's consensus view
  • 2.2 A change in consensus? Comparing 2016 vs. 2017 Autelligence survey results
    • 2.2.1 General comments
    • 2.2.2 Could 48V roll out sooner than originally anticipated?
    • 2.2.3 What is really driving 48V progress?
    • 2.2.4 Will socio-political uncertainty influence growth?
    • 2.2.5 48V is about more than emissions: power unlocks value!
  • 2.3 Key questions about the uncertainties leading up to 2025

Chapter 3: Overview of global market drivers and constraints

  • 3.1 EV incentives: a mixed blessing for 48V MHEVs
  • 3.2 Shifting trends contribute to 48V sales
    • 3.2.1 48V MHEVs set to outgun 12V SSVs
    • 3.2.2 Growth in the premium brand market: what is the benefit to 48V?
    • 3.2.3 Automated vehicles and 48V electrification: a match made in heaven!
  • 3.3 Global uncertainties could upset the consensus view
    • 3.3.1 Fuel is cheap, but is this likely to change?
    • 3.3.2 Politicians want to restrict diesel/ICEs
    • 3.3.3 The Trump administration seems set to trade GHGs for jobs
    • 3.3.4 The Chinese revolution: Is there room for 48V?
    • 3.3.5 The death of the 48V MHEV in India: India's future lies with EVs
  • 3.4 It all comes down to cost: what will the customer pay for 48V?
  • 3.5 Summary of global uncertainties impacting 48V forecasts

Chapter 4: Flexible 48V building blocks fit any strategy

  • 4.1 It is all about saving the planet: 48V's role in cutting emissions
    • 4.1.1 Some markets are about to run into emissions trouble
    • 4.1.2 New emissions test procedures rewrite all the rules
    • 4.1.3 No need to go HV: 48V will meet emissions targets
    • 4.1.4 Will 48V save the diesel; or replace it?
  • 4.2 Tiny engines love the 48V Powernet
    • 4.2.1 The 48V eSupercharger: the best of both worlds
    • 4.2.2 48V torque-boost puts the fun back into driving
    • 4.2.3 Going electric stamps out parasitic losses
  • 4.3 More sizzle less steak: are premium brands selling 48V as a feature?
  • 4.4 Comfort features come standard with 48V
  • 4.5 Automated vehicles: smart cars need a lot of power
  • 4.6 Uncertainties impacting manufacturers' 48V strategies and forecasts

Chapter 5: OEMs show their hand

  • 5.1 Mercedes-Benz goes all out with an ISG
  • 5.2 Cost effective 48V MHEVs for the masses
    • 5.2.1 Renault's mild hybrid solution: Simple yet effective
    • 5.2.2 FCA throws its weight behind mild hybrid pickups
  • 5.3 OEMs lining up to roll out new 48V models
  • 5.4 Chapter 5 summary: uncertainties and forecasts

Chapter 6: Projects pushing the boundaries of 48V technologies

  • 6.1 Diesel can work: the ADEPT project
  • 6.2 The Schaeffler High Performance 48V concept with AWD
  • 6.3 The THOMSON project: The EU's 48V think-tank for rapid deployment
    • 6.3.1 Ricardo creates the ideal model to reduce time and save money
  • 6.4 Chapter 6 summary: uncertainties and forecasts

Chapter 7: 48V - Key technologies up to 2030 and beyond

  • 7.1 The heart of 48V: batteries dictate the pace
    • 7.1.1 Are lead acid batteries still relevant?
    • 7.1.2 Li-Ion: chemistry of choice
    • 7.1.3 Can new cathode materials unlock more energy?
    • 7.1.4 A 48V battery delivers 25kW!
    • 7.1.5 Solving capacity loss in lithium-sulfur batteries
    • 7.1.6 IONICS: paving the way for the next generation
    • 7.1.7 Revolutionary solid state battery ups the ante
    • 7.1.8 Could Nickel-3D Zinc technology pip Li-ion to the post?
    • 7.1.9 Can the flowcell battery work in a car?
  • 7.2 Materials and design set to revolutionize power electronics
    • 7.2.1 New materials pave the way to higher switching frequencies
    • 7.2.2 Managing the energy flow in dual voltage systems
  • 7.3 Future of 48V rotating machine technology
  • 7.4 Back to the future with 12V MHEVs
  • 7.5 Chapter 7 summary: Uncertainties and forecasts

Chapter 8: 48V as a powerful EV - the Volabo concept

  • 8.1 A 48V motor producing 180kW!
  • 8.2 Unique controls deal with the high current
  • 8.3 Smart battery configuration provides the power
  • 8.4 What to do with transmission cables?
  • 8.5 Post MHEV: High power 48V offers impressive performance
  • 8.6 Chapter 8 summary: uncertainties and forecasts

Addendum A: 2016 vs 2017 Autelligence survey respondent demographics

Addendum B: Topology, the heart of the 48V mild hybrid

Addendum B summary: uncertainties and forecasts

Sources

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1.1: Overview of changes to emissions regulations in major markets
  • Figure 1.2: CO2 savings achievable through flexible 48V architectures
  • Figure 1.3: 48V's position on the path to zero emissions
  • Figure 1.4: 48V as an enabler for future electrification strategies
  • Figure 2.1: Consensus view of 48V trends up to 2025
  • Figure 2.2: Autelligence survey indicates growing optimism in the uptake of 48V
  • Figure 2.3: Autelligence survey results on timing for 48V-only architecture
  • Figure 2.4: Autelligence survey establishes factors driving 48V growth
  • Figure 2.5: Autelligence survey questions the effect of socio-political factors on the growth of 48V
  • Figure 2.6: 2017 Autelligence survey shows opinions split on the impact of incentives on sales of
  • 48V in the US and China
  • Figure 2.7: Autelligence survey respondents' views on systems to benefit most from 48V
  • Figure 2.8: Suppliers and OEMs that could walk away as winners or losers in the 48V stakes
  • Figure 3.1: Breakdown of global GHG emissions by type and sector
  • Figure 3.2: 2016 to 2026 global total vehicle sales by region
  • Figure 3.3: Breakdown of powertrain market share by type and region for 2025
  • Figure 3.4: PHEV sales comparison 2015/2016 - highlighting the impact of incentives on sales
  • Figure 3.5: The impact of incentives on market share
  • Figure 3.6: Breakdown of vehicle sales by technology highlights SSV contribution
  • Figure 3.7: EU light vehicle production forecast by architecture
  • Figure 3.8: SSV sales by region to 2025
  • Figure 3.9: Premium brand vehicle sales by region to 2025
  • Figure 3.10: Breakdown of the automated-driving vehicle market, by level, to 2035
  • Figure 3.11: Oil price forecast up to 2030
  • Figure 3.12: What will the Indian market pay for 48V?
  • Figure 3.13: What will the EU customer pay for 48V?
  • Figure 4.1: Actual vehicle emissions plotted against regulation driven emissions targets
  • Figure 4.2: Quantifying the impact of switching from NEDC to WLTP
  • Figure 4.3: EU emissions penalties - 2015 vs. 2020
  • Figure 4.4: Cost/g CO2 reduction by topology
  • Figure 4.5: Scalable cost vs. benefit from 48V electrification
  • Figure 4.6: Energy recovery by vehicle segment, topology and machine power over most
  • common driving cycles
  • Figure 4.7: Analysis of the BSG efficiency map
  • Figure 4.8: The impact of changing BSG torque on overall efficiency
  • Figure 4.9: Breakdown of driving modes over a Real Driving Cycle
  • Figure 4.10: Results of Engine Technology International's poll on the long-term viability of LDV diesels
  • Figure 4.11: Reduction in transient diesel fuel-consumption with an iBSG
  • Figure 4.12: The influence of electric assistance on BSNOx emissions
  • Figure 4.12: The influence of electric assistance on BSNOx emissions (continued)
  • Figure 4.13: 48V enables CO2 vs. NOx optimization for diesel ICE emissions
  • Figure 4.14: The impact of a 48V electrically heated catalyst on the warmup time
  • Figure 4.15: 48V eSC reduces NOx by lowering combustion temperature
  • Figure 4.16: Response time curve of a turbocharged engine equipped with a supplementary 48V eSC
  • Figure 4.17: eSupercharger sales by region to 2025
  • Figure 4.18: Power-on vs. power demand schematic of systems that will benefit from 48V
  • Figure 4.19: Time, speed and torque curves for S/G assisted acceleration from coasting mode
  • Figure 4.20: Comparison of current and future comfort-feature power requirements
  • Figure 4.21: Timeline for the roll out of automated vehicle features
  • Figure 4.22: ADAS and automated driving power requirements
  • Figure 5.1: The degree of current electrification by OEM and architecture
  • Figure 6.1: Schematic layout of the ADEPT system
  • Figure 6.2: ADEPT technologies that cut emissions to 75g/km with 70g/km in reach
  • Figure 6.3: 48V improves ADEPT vehicle acceleration and engine cranking-time
  • Figure 6.4: Schaeffler High Performance 48V AWD concept
  • Figure 7.1: Forecast of future battery development
  • Figure 7.2: Advanced Lead Acid Battery Value by Region 2016-2025
  • Figure 7.3: Overview of the 2016-2018 ALABC research program
  • Figure 7.4: ADEPT project shows 48V LABs are still in with a chance
  • Figure 7.5: 48V battery market by region 2016-2025
  • Figure 7.6: Comparison of key cost/performance criteria of the three most likely Lithium battery
  • chemistries
  • Figure 7.7: Comparison of the energy densities of Li2CoP2O vs. conventional cathode materials
  • Figure 7.8: Unique 48V BMS guarantees safe, long-life performance
  • Figure 7.9: DC/DC Converter market growth to 2025
  • Figure 7.10: Relative cost comparison of key topologies and systems
  • Figure 7.11: 48V Starter-Generator market by region to 2025
  • Figure 7.12: 12V MHEV architecture may displace 48V on lower cost small vehicles
  • Figure 8.1: Advantages of the Intelligent Stator Cage Drive Motor
  • Figure 8.2: Advantages of the ISCAD Power Electronics
  • Figure 8.3: Comparison of highly parallel cell setup vs. series configuration
  • Figure 8.4: Simple Volabo battery construction
  • Figure 8.5: Volabo design improves efficiency across a wide speed/torque range
  • Figure 8.6: ISCAD reduces energy demands
  • Figure A.1: Geographical spread of respondents to Autelligence survey
  • Figure A.2: Autelligence survey respondent's work diversity
  • Figure A.3: Respondent diversity by job function
  • Figure A.4: Respondent diversity by level of seniority
  • Figure B.1: Configuration of a low-cost P0 Topology
  • Figure B.2: Energy recovery and torque boosting over the NEDC
  • Figure B.3: Torque-boosting improves overtaking acceleration where it is most needed
  • Figure B.4: Comparison of P0 vs. P2 kinetic energy recovery

Table of Tables

  • Table 1.1: 12V/42V/48V Powernet system comparison
  • Table 3.1: EV incentives by country/region
  • Table 3.2: Cities and countries considering restrictions on ICE vehicles
  • Table 3.3 Forecasts on the impact of global uncertainties in the 48V market, with probabilities assigned
  • Table 4.1: Emissions, comfort and performance strategies unlocked by 48V electrification
  • Table 4.2: Achieving CO2 reductions by applying a system level approach to downsized engines
  • Table 4.3: Increased BMEP vs. downsizing potential
  • Table 4.4: Typical parasitic losses on a 2.0TD LDV
  • Table 4.5: Diverse 48V strategies differentiate premium brands
  • Table 4.6: Power consumption by comfort system
  • Table 4.7: Forecasts around future 48V strategies with probabilities assigned
  • Table 5.1: Overview of major OEMs' electrification activities
  • Table 5.2: OEMs show their hand: 48V strategies and partners actively working on 48V
  • Table 5.3 : Predicting OEM 48V strategies with probabilities assigned
  • Table 6.1: Suppliers at the forefront of the 48-volt roll out: Projects and contact details
  • Table 6.2: Benefits of the 48V technologies applied to the ADEPT project
  • Table 6.3: Forecasts on governments' impact on research projects, with probabilities assigned
  • Table 7.1: Significant developments taking place around Lead Acid Batteries (companies and
  • contact details included)
  • Table 7.2: Significant developments taking place around Lithium-ion Battery technologies
  • (companies and contact details included)
  • Table 7.3: Forecasts on the future direction of 48V E/E components with probabilities assigned
  • Table 8.1: Energy comparison of various battery cell configurations
  • Table 8.2: Forecasts on the possibility of 48V evolving into a part- or full-time EV, with
  • probabilities assigned
  • Table: B.1: Benefits of differing 48V MHEV System Configurations
  • Table B.2: Systems powered by regen energy
  • Table B.3: Forecasts on the future of 48V with probabilities assigned
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