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市場調査レポート

通信サービス:世界市場の動向と予測(2019~2024年)

Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 931134
出版日 ページ情報 英文 24 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=110.09円で換算しております。
通信サービス:世界市場の動向と予測(2019~2024年) Communication Services: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2020年04月06日 ページ情報: 英文 24 Slides
概要

2019年には79兆件のOTT IPメッセージが送信されており、これはSMSを使って送信されたメッセージの16倍に相当します。

当レポートでは、世界のモバイル通信サービス市場の展望を提供しており、移動体通信事業者とOTT(Over-the-Top)プロバイダーの双方が提供する音声およびメッセージングサービスの予測を行っています。

世界的動向

  • 2019年に送信されたOTTのIPメッセージは79兆件でSMSを使ったメッセージの16倍
  • 2019年、スマートフォンユーザーの82%はOTTメッセージングアプリを活用しており、こうしたアプリの浸透成長は今後数年で停滞する見込み
  • OTT通信市場は飽和に向かっており、浸透成長の最大の機会は通話・メッセージング以外にある
  • スマートフォンは今後も通信端末を独占するが、新しい端末の利用も拡大する
  • 事業者からの戦略的対応は地域により大きく異なる
  • 事業者は今後もスマートフォンユーザーのVoLTEサービスへの移行を進め、2024年までにはVoLTE加入者は約57億人近くになる見込み
  • 事業者は消費者の通話品質向上やモバイルネットワーク改善のためにWiFiの展開を進める
  • RCSユーザーの利用者数が増加し、スマートフォンユーザーの48%は2024年末までにこの技術を利用する

西欧

  • 主にFacebookの収益構造のためにSMSの利用が急速に減少
  • 事業者は依然として通話を独占しているが代替プロバイダによる強力な挑戦を受ける

中東欧

  • OTTメッセージングアプリの人気が拡大中で事業者にとっての課題となる
  • 屋内外のHD通話対象エリアを提供しVoIPの勢いが増加

中東・北アフリカ

  • OTTサービスがメッセージング領域を独占し事業者は競争に消極的
  • 従来の通話サービスが今後も支配的だがVoIPが引き続き対抗馬となる

サハラ以南

  • ソーシャルメディアとメッセージングサービスが今後も事業者の重要な収益成長源
  • OTTプレイヤーもモバイル音声導入拡大により恩恵を受けるが、モバイル通話による事業者の収益は成長を続ける

新興アジア太平洋

  • Facebookがローカルプレイヤーに挑戦し地域における独占的なメッセージングプロバイダになりつつある
  • 共通通信プラットフォーム上の通話・動画機能の展開によるユーザーがOTT通話サービスに慣れた

先進アジア太平洋

  • 日本・韓国の事業者が共通ブランドのもとでRCSを立ち上げ
  • 事業者の回線交換音声トラフィックはVoLTEとOTTの音声サービスに変わりつつある

北米

  • 事業者は残存するメッセージングにおける課題の強みを生かしA2Pバリューチェーンに大きなシェア拡大を目指す
  • 事業者による新テクノロジーへの投資によりほとんどの音声トラフィックは2020年までに事業者のIPサービスのものになる

南米

  • トラフィックがOTTサービスに統合されたことからSMSのトラフィックはすでにより大きな市場で最大値を迎えており、大手事業者はRCSに取り組んでいる
  • 従来の通話サービスは予測期間内は引き続き独占的

予測の手法と前提条件

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

目次

"79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS."

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market worldwide. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for operator services including VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling and IP messaging, as well as traditional voice and SMS
  • quantification of the level of substitution from traditional services to OTT alternatives
  • user and traffic forecasts for communication services, including OTT voice and messaging
  • an outlook for multi-device usage across smartphones, tablets and PCs/laptops
  • detailed forecasts for 63 individual countries and eight regions.
RegionsKey metrics
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
  • Non-operator/OTT services
    • Voice and messaging
    • Active users by device type
    • Outgoing traffic by device type
  • Operator traditional services
    • Handsets
    • Circuit-switched (CS) voice and SMS
    • Outgoing traffic
  • Operator IP-based services
    • Active users by service type:
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Outgoing traffic by service type
      • VoLTE, Wi-Fi calling, IP messaging
    • Retail revenue
      • voice and messaging
      • average spend per user

Table of Contents

  • 6. Worldwide trends
  • 7. Worldwide: 79 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2019; this is 16 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS
  • 8. Worldwide: 82% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2019; the growth in penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years
  • 9. Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; the largest opportunities for penetration growth reside outside voice and messaging
  • 10. Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase
  • 11. Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
  • 12. Worldwide: operators are continuing to migrate smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 5.7 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2024
  • 13. Worldwide: operators are continuing to roll out Wi Fi calling services to improve consumer call quality and relieve mobile network traffic
  • 14. Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing, and 48% of smartphone users will use the technology by the end of the forecast period
  • 15. Western Europe
  • 16. Western Europe: the use of SMS is in steep decline, largely due to the Facebook ecosystem
  • 17. Western Europe: operators will remain dominant in voice, but will be strongly challenged by alternative providers
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: OTT messaging apps are increasing in popularity and will pose challenges to operators
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: operators are providing indoor and outdoor HD voice coverage and VoIP is gaining traction
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: OTT services will dominate the messaging space and operators are not keen to compete
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: legacy voice services will continue to dominate, but VoIP will represent a persistent challenge
  • 24. Sub Saharan Africa
  • 25. Sub Saharan Africa: social media and messaging services will continue to be important drivers of revenue growth for operators
  • 26. Sub Saharan Africa: operators' revenue from mobile voice will continue to grow, although OTT players will also benefit from the increase in mobile voice adoption
  • 27. Emerging Asia Pacific
  • 28. Emerging Asia Pacific: Facebook is challenging local players and is set to become the dominant messaging provider in the region
  • 29. Emerging Asia Pacific: the roll out of voice and video features on common communication platforms has made users accustomed to OTT voice services
  • 30. Developed Asia Pacific
  • 31. Developed Asia Pacific: operators in Japan and South Korea have joined forces to launch RCS under a common brand
  • 32. Developed Asia Pacific: operator circuit switched voice traffic is being substituted by VoLTE and OTT voice services
  • 33. North America
  • 34. North America: operators will make use of the residual strength of their messaging proposition to acquire a significant share of the A2P value chain
  • 35. North America: most voice traffic will come from operator IP services by 2020 due to operators' investments in new technologies
  • 36. Latin America
  • 37. Latin America: SMS traffic has already peaked in the larger markets because traffic has migrated to OTT services; the major operators are committing to RCS
  • 38. Latin America: traditional voice services are expected to remain dominant during the entire forecast period
  • 39. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 40. Forecast outputs and definitions
  • 41. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 42. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43. About the authors
  • 44. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 45. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 46. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012--2019
  • Figure 2: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 3: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 4: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012--2024
  • Figure 5: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 6: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 7: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2017--2024
  • Figure 8: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2017--2024
  • Figure 9: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2015--2024
  • Figure 10: Messaging traffic, Western Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 11: Mobile voice traffic, Western Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 12: Messaging traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012--2024
  • Figure 14: Messaging traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile voice traffic, Middle East and North Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 16: Messaging traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile voice traffic, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012--2024
  • Figure 18: Messaging traffic, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 19: Mobile voice traffic, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 20: Messaging traffic, developed Asia--Pacific, 2012--2014
  • Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia--Pacific, 2012--2024
  • Figure 22: Messaging traffic, North America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 23: Mobile voice traffic, North America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 24: Messaging traffic, Latin America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 25: Mobile voice traffic, Latin America, 2012--2024
  • Figure 26: Overview of the main forecast outputs
  • Figure 27: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report