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中欧・東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測 - 2019年~2024年

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 928087
出版日 ページ情報 英文 36 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=107.17円で換算しております。
中欧・東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測 - 2019年~2024年 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2020年03月10日 ページ情報: 英文 36 Slides
概要

有線ブロードバンドおよび専門ビジネスサービスの収益は、中欧および東欧の有線セグメントの収益成長に不可欠な要素です。有線ネットワークオペレーターはインフラコスト削減の機会を探しており、光ファイバーネットワークの展開は地域全体で継続されます。モバイルARPUは、LTEの普及とそれに伴うデータ使用量の増加に刺激されてわずかに増加するでしょう。

当レポートでは、中東欧諸国における通信市場の最新情勢と将来展望について分析し、市場規模の全体的な見通し (今後5年間分) やサービス内容別・国別の詳細動向、市場構造の変化の方向性などを調査しております。

調査対象国

  • ブルガリア
  • クロアチア
  • チェコ共和国
  • エストニア
  • ハンガリー
  • ラトビア
  • リトアニア
  • モンテネグロ
  • ポーランド
  • ルーマニア
  • ロシア
  • セルビア
  • スロバキア
  • スロベニア
  • トルコ
  • ウクライナ

主要業績評価指標 (KPI)

  • 接続件数
    • モバイル通信
      • ハンドセット・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン/それ以外
    • 有線回線通信
      • 音声通話・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声通話・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTP/B・ケーブルテレビ・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 音声通話トラフィック
    • 発信時間・MoU
  • 市場収益額
    • モバイル通信
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • ハンドセット・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • ハンドセット音声通話・メッセージ・データ通信
    • 有線回線
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声通話・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTP/B・ケーブルテレビ・BFWA・その他
  • ARPU (ユーザー1人当たり平均収益)
    • モバイル通信
      • SIM・ハンドセット
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • 音声通話・データ通信
図表

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018 and 20241
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2018
  • Figure 6a: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 6b: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 63b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
目次

"Total telecoms retail revenue growth in CEE will be driven by strong growth in fixed broadband revenue, aided by the increasing investment in high-speed broadband networks."

Fixed broadband and specialist business service revenue will be crucial for revenue growth in the fixed segment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Fixed network operators will be looking for infrastructure cost reduction opportunities, and fibre network roll-out will continue across the region. Mobile ARPU will increase slightly, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

  Countries modelled individually

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • UK

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, specialist business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. Telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
  • 10. The rate of telecoms retail revenue growth mainly depends on LTE network expansions, NGA network investments and fixed broadband service take up
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the share of NGA connections will increase to 83%, and the 4G/5G share of mobile connections will exceed 84% in 2024
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 14. Market context: economic growth will slow down slightly over the forecast period
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries [1]
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries [2]
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
  • 18. Market overview: fixed broadband and mobile handset data services will remain the largest areas for revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: the total number of mobile connections will grow at a CAGR of just 0.2% (2018 2024) due to market saturation and migration from multi SIM prepaid plans
  • 20. Mobile: penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation
  • 21. Mobile: mobile ARPU will increase slightly in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage
  • 22. Mobile: the outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions
  • 23. Fixed: over 60% of households in CEE will have an active NGA broadband connection in 2024
  • 24. Fixed: NGA network roll outs and attractive bundled offers will support broadband household penetration growth across the region
  • 25. Fixed: increasing broadband household penetration and NGA service take up will help operators to maintain reasonably stable ASPU levels
  • 26. Fixed: the increasing coverage of high speed broadband networks will help operators to maintain broadband revenue growth
  • 27. Specialist business services: operators' business services revenue growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast
  • 28. IoT: the largest share of IoT revenue in CEE will come from the automotive sector
  • 29. Pay TV: traditional services will account for the majority of pay TV revenue growth in CEE, but operator OTT revenue will grow rapidly, while that from DTH declines
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. Czech Republic: the possible entry of a fourth mobile player will cause mobile revenue to decline slightly from 2022 onwards
  • 32. Czech Republic: fixed wireless will remain the most popular fixed broadband technology but the number of fibre connections will grow rapidly
  • 33. Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator
  • 34. Czech Republic: forecast changes
  • 35. Poland: fixed broadband revenue will increase, but the total market revenue growth will be limited by strong competition in the mobile segment
  • 36. Poland: operators' investments in NGA networks will slow down towards the end of the forecast period
  • 37. Poland: investments in infrastructure will allow operators to maintain ASPU levels despite the high competitive pressure
  • 38. Poland: forecast changes
  • 39. Russia: revenue growth from mobile connectivity and fixed broadband will help to offset declining revenue from legacy services
  • 40. Russia: the FTTB share of all broadband connections will reach 84% by 2024
  • 41. Russia: mobile and broadband revenue will grow modestly due to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions
  • 42. Russia: forecast changes
  • 43. Turkey: mobile data usage will be the major driver of revenue growth, followed by broadband services
  • 44. Turkey: the high mobile ASPU will be maintained due to inflation and growth in the take up of mobile data services
  • 45. Turkey: increasing fibre household penetration and expanding LTE network coverage will help to maintain the high broadband and mobile ASPU
  • 46. Turkey: forecast changes
  • 47. Methodology
  • 48. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 49. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 50. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 51. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 52. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 53. About the authors [1]
  • 54. About the authors [2]
  • 55. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 56. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 57. Consulting from Analysys Mason