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市場調査レポート

西欧の通信市場動向・予測:2019年~2024年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 927366
出版日 ページ情報 英文 40 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=108.74円で換算しております。
西欧の通信市場動向・予測:2019年~2024年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2020年03月06日 ページ情報: 英文 40 Slides
概要

西欧における有線ブロードバンドの収益は、FTTP/Bネットワークのロールアウトへの多額の投資と高速プランの拡大に伴い増加する見込みです。

西欧の通信サービス全体の収益は、当レポートの予測期間中はほぼ横ばいとなる見込みです。5Gモバイルサービスの開始は、この地域のほとんどの国での激しい競争により、モバイル収益の成長には限定的な影響しか与えないでしょう。しかし、有線ブロードバンド市場は大幅な収益成長の可能性を秘めています。

当レポートでは、西欧全体および主要16か国における330以上のモバイル・有線KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、各モバイル・有線サービスタイプおよび主要諸国の動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件に関する詳細な分析、オペレーターの戦略の概要、およびモバイル・有線オペレーターへの提言などをまとめています。

調査対象国

  • オーストリア
  • ベルギー
  • デンマーク
  • フィンランド
  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • ギリシャ
  • アイルランド
  • イタリア
  • オランダ
  • ノルウェー
  • ポルトガル
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • スイス
  • 英国

主要KPIの5カ年予測

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 有線
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 有線・モバイルの発信時間・MoU
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・小売
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 有線
      • サービス・小売
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・ビジネスサービス
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Fixed broadband revenue will increase in Western Europe sustained by significant investments in FTTP/B network roll-out and the growing take-up of high-speed plans."

We expect that the total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe (WE) will remain almost flat over the forecast period, and only the fixed broadband market has potential for significant revenue growth. The launch of 5G mobile services will only have a limited effect on mobile revenue growth due to intense competition in most countries in the region.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

  Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, 1IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, 1IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service3, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe will grow marginally; revenue will only grow significantly in the fixed broadband market
  • 10. Overall, the telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will increase at a negligible rate, but there will be significant differences between countries
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the NGA share of connections will only remain low in a few countries during the forecast period
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 14. Market context: the mobile market in WE is saturated, but fixed broadband household penetration could grow in many countries
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
  • 17. Market overview: the total revenue will remain flat during the forecast period despite growth in fixed broadband revenue
  • 18. Mobile: blended ARPU will remain stable, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
  • 19. Mobile: mobile penetration will decrease in most countries during the forecast period, averaging 121% in WE in 2024
  • 20. Mobile: the evolution of ARPU will vary by country because of different market conditions and competitive landscapes
  • 21. Mobile: mobile service revenue will decline modestly during the forecast period; the launch of 5G services is expected to have a small impact on mobile revenue
  • 22. Fixed: the share of FTTP/B connections will increase significantly in WE, sustained by operators' aggressive roll out targets and governments' initiatives
  • 23. Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will continue to grow in all countries
  • 24. Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU for the whole region will remain almost flat supported by growing consumer demand for high speed broadband
  • 25. Fixed: the total fixed broadband revenue in WE will continue to increase, sustained by stable ASPU and a growing number of FBB connections
  • 26. Specialist business services: other business services revenue will continue to grow as enterprises migrate further towards cloud based business solutions
  • 27. IoT: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector; 5G has the potential to generate new sources of revenue, but not in the short term
  • 28. Pay TV: retail revenue from pay TV services will grow at a moderate rate, driven by the growing popularity of OTT services
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. France: aggressive price competition in the French fixed market will lead to a decline in the total telecoms revenue during the forecast period
  • 31. France: government initiatives are driving technological developments in both the fixed and mobile segments
  • 32. France: investments in 5G and fibre will lead to a considerable increase in the take up for both technologies, but will have a limited impact on revenue
  • 33. France: forecast changes
  • 34. Germany: the total telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period and the growth will come from fixed and mobile
  • 35. Germany: FTTC based VDSL will be the most widespread technology in the fixed broadband market by 2024
  • 36. Germany: Vodafone is emerging as Deutsche Telekom's leading challenger after its purchase of Liberty Global's cable network
  • 37. Germany: forecast changes
  • 38. Italy: intense competition will result in declining mobile revenue, whereas an increasing number of FBB connections will lead to growing fixed revenue
  • 39. Italy: the take up of 5G services will accelerate from 2020 onwards once 5G coverage becomes nationwide
  • 40. Italy: competition in the mobile market is expected to remain high; a growing take up of fibre based network services will boost FBB penetration
  • 41. Italy: forecast changes
  • 42. Spain: mobile revenue growth will be limited by competition in the value segment and cheap additional SIMs in FMC bundles
  • 43. Spain: DSL and narrowband fixed voice connections will decline to zero by 2025
  • 44. Spain: operators are changing their approach to owning infrastructure and are facing increasingly intense competition in the video segment
  • 45. Spain: forecast changes
  • 46. UK: FTTP roll outs will fuel growth in fixed broadband revenue
  • 47. UK: all four MNOs have launched 5G services, but rapid take up will not lead to ARPU growth
  • 48. UK: the telecoms market in the UK is in a phase of technological transition, and operators are racing to roll out FTTP and 5G mobile services
  • 49. UK: forecast changes
  • 50. Methodology
  • 51. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 52. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 53. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 54. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 55. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 56. About the authors
  • 57. About the authors
  • 58. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 59. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 60. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2018 and 20241
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Western Europe, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, France, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2014--2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2014--2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UK, 2014--2024
  • Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores