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先進のアジア太平洋地域の通信市場:動向と予測

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 906157
出版日 ページ情報 英文 45 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.33円で換算しております。
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先進のアジア太平洋地域の通信市場:動向と予測 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2019年12月19日 ページ情報: 英文 45 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、先進のアジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信市場について調査分析し、5ヶ年予測のほか、動向、促進要因、予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、国別のトピックなどについて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

調査内容

  • 180以上のモバイル/固定のKPI (重要業績評価指標) の5ヶ年予測 (地域全体、主要7ヶ国)
  • モバイル/固定サービス別の動向、促進要因、予測の前提条件の分析 (主要国)
  • オペレーター戦略、国別トピックスの概要
  • 調査結果、モバイル/固定オペレータ向け提言、など

調査対象国

  • オーストラリア
  • 香港
  • 日本
  • ニュージーランド
  • シンガポール
  • 韓国
  • 台湾

調査対象KPI

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
    • 固定
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定・モバイル
  • 収益
    • モバイル
    • 固定
  • ARPU
    • モバイル

目次

  • エグゼクティブサマリーと提言
  • 地域の予測と国別比較
  • 国別予測
  • 調査手法
  • 著者・Analysys Masonについて
目次

"Specialist business services will contribute the most to fixed revenue growth, accounting for 27% of fixed revenue (including pay TV) by 2024."

The fast pace of technological development, the continuous demand for speed upgrades and a high GDP per capita will help telecoms operators in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) to (at least partially) offset the effects of high competitive pressure and market saturation. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for seven individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the DVAP region, as a whole and for seven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
Region modelled
  • Developed Asia--Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • New Zealand
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, specialist business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. High levels of competition and market saturation will limit the telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
  • 10. New Zealand and South Korea will continue to lead the region in terms of retail revenue growth, but the rate of growth will remain low
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the number of NGA connections in Australia and New Zealand will grow towards that in the rest of the region during the forecast period
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 14. Market context: relatively high retail spend per capita on telecoms services will limit the decline in total telecoms revenue in the region
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia Pacific market
  • 17. Market overview: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough yet to offset revenue declines in legacy services
  • 18. Mobile: the take up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand side conditions
  • 19. Mobile: high service saturation and 5G service demand will limit ARPU decline
  • 20. Mobile: operators and governments in DVAP will focus on stimulating the development of 5G use cases to monetise 5G network investments
  • 21. Fixed: high share of NGA connections will support revenue growth from the specialist business services
  • 22. Fixed: broadband ASPU declines will continue due to high service saturation and competitive pressure present in most of the markets in DVAP
  • 23. Fixed: the broadband market is very competitive but revenue growth will continue
  • 24. Specialist business services: revenue from voice services will continue to decline and data services will be crucial for businesses
  • 25. IoT: revenue from IoT will represent 15% of the total telecoms revenue by the end of the forecast period
  • 26. Pay TV: traditional pay TV retail revenue will remain static from 2020 onwards; future revenue growth will be driven by operator OTT services
  • 27. Individual country forecasts
  • 28. Australia: fixed revenue will stagnate and mobile revenue will continue to increase, driven by data consumption
  • 29. Australia: VDSL will dominate the broadband access market and the share of BFWA connection will increase driven by 5G investments
  • 30. Australia: the rising share of contract users will help stabilise handset ARPU and broadband ASPU will decline, driven by competition and regulations
  • 31. Australia: forecast changes
  • 32. Hong Kong: market saturation is limiting the potential for revenue growth
  • 33. Hong Kong: market saturation and service competition will lead to a decline in fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU
  • 34. Hong Kong: operators will focus on premium and contract subscribers to limit revenue decline
  • 35. Hong Kong: forecast changes
  • 36. Japan: lower competition and a decline in prices in the mobile segment will drive down total telecoms service revenue
  • 37. Japan: FTTP/B dominance as an access technology will allow for speeds upsell and slower decline of broadband ASPU
  • 38. Japan: fixed broadband revenue will increase because FTTP/B take up will rise, but this will not offset a decline in mobile revenue
  • 39. Japan: forecast changes
  • 40. New Zealand: mobile data will account for almost 80% of the total retail mobile revenue
  • 41. New Zealand: FTTP/B access will account for 79% of all broadband connections by 2024
  • 42. New Zealand: competition in both the fixed and mobile market segments will be intense
  • 43. New Zealand: forecast changes
  • 44. Singapore: the competitive and saturated market will face a fall in revenue in both the fixed and mobile segments
  • 45. Singapore: fibre only broadband access will limit a decline in ASPU by 2020, but competitive pressure on prices will prevail in the long term
  • 46. Singapore: the entry of a fourth MNO will affect telecoms mobile revenue and operators will aim to identify alternative revenue streams
  • 47. Singapore: forecast changes
  • 48. South Korea: revenue from fixed broadband and business services will help to maintain total service revenue growth
  • 49. South Korea: the country became the first in the region to launch 5G services to consumers (in April 2019)
  • 50. South Korea: the launch of 5G mobile plans will help to minimise price pressure; FBB revenue will grow due to the migration towards gigabit offers
  • 51. South Korea: forecast changes
  • 52. Taiwan: the total telecoms revenue will continue to decline over the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate
  • 53. Taiwan: FTTP/B will account for 36% of all broadband connections by 2024
  • 54. Taiwan: MNOs will face higher competition due to the market entry of new market players
  • 55. Taiwan: forecast changes
  • 56. Methodology
  • 57. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 58. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 60. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 61. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 62. About the authors
  • 63. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 64. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 65. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2018 2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2018 and 20241
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in developed Asia Pacific, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019 2024), by country, developed Asia Pacific
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia Pacific (USD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, developed Asia Pacific (USD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia Pacific (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia Pacific (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, developed Asia Pacific (USD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, developed Asia Pacific (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, developed Asia Pacific, 2014 2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Australia (AUD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Australia (AUD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Australia (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Australia (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Australia, 2014 2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Hong Kong (HKD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Hong Kong (HKD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Hong Kong (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Hong Kong (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2014 2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Japan (JPY trillion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Japan (JPY per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Japan (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Japan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Japan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, New Zealand (NZD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, New Zealand (NZD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, New Zealand (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, New Zealand (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, New Zealand, 2014 2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Singapore (SGD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Singapore (SGD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Singapore (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Singapore (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2014 2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Korea (KRW trillion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Korea (KRW thousand per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Korea (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, South Korea (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2014 2024
  • Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Taiwan (TWD billion), 2014 2024
  • Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Taiwan (TWD per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Taiwan (GB per month), 2014 2024
  • Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Taiwan (million), 2014 2024
  • Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2014 2024
  • Figure 90a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 90b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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