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IoT (モノのインターネット) 予測:接続・収益・技術動向 2018-2027年

IoT Forecast: Connections, Revenue and Technology Trends 2018-2027

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 806148
出版日 ページ情報 英文 25 Slides
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IoT (モノのインターネット) 予測:接続・収益・技術動向 2018-2027年 IoT Forecast: Connections, Revenue and Technology Trends 2018-2027
出版日: 2019年03月13日 ページ情報: 英文 25 Slides
概要

世界における接続総数は2027年に54億へ増加すると予測されていますが、いくつかのLPWA利用例については依然として不安要素が残されています。接続収益は2027年までに2130億米ドルへ拡大する予測ですが、競争激化の影響を受ける見込みです。

当レポートでは、IoT (モノのインターネット) 市場におけるセルラーおよびLPWA接続の技術動向 (2G, 3G/4G, 5G, NB-IoT, LTE-M およびその他のLPWA接続)、主な産業部門とその接続・収益シェア、ハードウェア・アプリケーション・接続サービスによる収益などについて分析しています。

目次

世界の動向

  • LPWA接続数の増加に促進され、IoT接続数は予測期間にわたって安定して成長する見込み
  • いくつかの分野ではLPWAの導入に関して大きな不安が明らかに
  • 5G IoT接続の大多数は、中国の優位性により、新興アジア太平洋からもたらされる見込み、ほか

西欧

  • LoRaオペレーターは、接続数に関して欧州のLPWA市場で最初にリードを奪ったものの、2027年までにNB-IoTが支配的となる見込み、ほか

中東欧

  • オペレーターは地域全体でNB-IoTを展開し、同技術に基づいた新サービスを試行、ほか

中東・アフリカ

  • LPWAネットワーク展開は、その他の先進地域よりも緩やか。現在は僅か3つの商業ネットワークしかない、ほか

サハラ以南アフリカ

  • 南アフリカは地域のIoT市場を支配し、全地域の接続数の67%を生み出す、ほか

新興アジア太平洋 (中国除く)

  • 2Gネットワークは現在、IoT接続の大部分をサポートしているが、同技術は2027年までにNBIoTに取って代わられる見込み、ほか

中国

  • 中国は接続数において2027年までに世界最大の5G IoT市場となる見込み。2027年までに5G IoT接続の約50%が中国から生まれる見込み、ほか

先進アジア太平洋

  • 地域のオペレーターはIoT機会の活用に時間がかかっていますが、IoTへの投資は拡大している、ほか

北米

  • 米国は最も成功しているIoT市場のひとつ。IoT接続数は2027年までに9億4700万へ増加する見込み、ほか

ラテンアメリカ

  • ブラジルは地域にい置ける最大のIoT市場。2018年においては接続数が2000万を超え、地域全体のIoT接続数の54%を構成、ほか

予測手法・前提因子

著者・Analysys Masonについて

目次

"By 2027, only 2% of all IoT connections will be made using 2G, as operators close their networks; 5G will be in ascendancy and will power 3% of all IoT connections, primarily in the automotive sector."

The IoT opportunity for network operators continues to grow. We forecast that the total number of connections will increase to 5.4 billion in 2027, although a high degree of uncertainty still exists for some LPWA use cases. Connectivity revenue will increase to USD213 billion by 2027 but is subject to increasing competition. ARPC erosion will be significant over the forecast period. This report outlines the technology trends, sector shares and the revenue trajectories for cellular and LPWA connectivity in the IoT market.

This report includes the analysis of:

  • technology trends including the number of 2G, 3G/4G, 5G, NB-IoT, LTE-M and 'other LPWA' connections worldwide
  • key industry sectors and the share of connections and revenue that they contribute
  • the revenue generated worldwide from hardware, applications and connectivity services.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey metrics

    Regions modelled

    • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
    • Developed Asia--Pacific (DVAP)
    • Emerging Asia--Pacific (EMAP)
    • Latin America (LATAM)
    • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
    • North America (NA)
    • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
    • Western Europe (WE)
    Full country level coverage of the forecasts is included in Analysys Mason's DataHub.
  • Revenue for the following value chain elements:
    • applications
    • connectivity services
    • IoT hardware.
  • IoT connections worldwide and by region, by technology type:
    • 2G
    • 3G/4G
    • 5G
    • NB-IoT
    • LTE-M
    • 'other LPWA'.
  • Connections and revenue, by sector:
    • automotive
    • finance
    • health
    • industries
    • smart cities
    • retail
    • smart buildings
    • utilities
    • agriculture
    • tracking.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: the number of IoT connections will grow strongly over the forecast period, driven by an increase in LPWA connectivity
  • 9. Worldwide: significant uncertainty regarding LPWA adoption prevails in some sectors
  • 10. Worldwide: the largest number of 5G IoT connections will come from emerging Asia-Pacific due to the dominance of China
  • 11. Worldwide: applications will generate most of the IoT revenue because specialist assets and skills are required to deliver them to enterprises
  • 12. Worldwide: revenue from LPWA connectivity will be low and subject to intense pricing pressure as new connectivity suppliers enter the market
  • 13. Worldwide: the largest share of revenue will come from the automotive sector, despite large numbers of LPWA connections from elsewhere
  • 14. Worldwide: China will continue to be the largest single IoT market in 2027
  • 15. Western Europe
  • 16. Western Europe: LoRa operators took an early lead in the western European LPWA market in terms of connection numbers, but NB-IoT will dominate by 2027
  • 17. Western Europe: the automotive sector' s share of IoT revenue will decline during the forecast period because LPWA connectivity will spur growth in new sectors
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: operators are deploying NB-IoT across the region and are trialling new services based on this technology
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: LPWA networks in the region are expanding, and LPWA technology will start to contribute significantly to revenue growth
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: LPWA network deployment has been slower than in other developed regions; there are currently only three commercial networks
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to over USD6.9 billion; 12% of this will come from connectivity
  • 24. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa dominated the region' s IoT market in 2018, and generated 67% of all regional connections
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: new entrants will compete fiercely for connectivity contracts, and connectivity ARPC will probably decline as a result
  • 27. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China
  • 28. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China: 2G networks currently support the majority of IoT connections, but this technology will be superseded by NBIoT by 2027
  • 29. Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding China: few operators in the region are well-positioned to capture a large share of IoT revenue beyond connectivity
  • 30. China
  • 31. China: China will be the largest 5G IoT market in the world by 2027 in terms of connections; almost 50% of all 5G IoT connections will come from China by 2027
  • 32. China: Chinese operators are investing significantly to develop applications and sector-specific services
  • 33. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 34. Developed Asia-Pacific: operators in the region have been slow to exploit the IoT opportunity, but investment in IoT is growing
  • 35. Developed Asia-Pacific: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow to 27.6 billion in 2027, and regional operators will increase their investments to take a larger share
  • 36. North America
  • 37. North America: the USA is one of the most successful IoT markets; the number of IoT connections will grow to 947 million by 2027
  • 38. North America: the region will generate the highest IoT revenue of all regions worldwide in 2027 (USD51 billion)
  • 39. Latin America
  • 40. Latin America: Brazil is the largest IoT market in the region; it had over 20 million connections in 2018 and accounted for 54% of all regional IoT connections
  • 41. Latin America: IoT connectivity revenue will grow to USD1.6 billion across the region, 40% of which will come from LPWA connectivity in 2027
  • 42. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 43. Comparison of the 2018 forecast with the new 2019 forecast
  • 44. Definitions [1]
  • 45. Definitions [2]
  • 46. Definitions [3]
  • 47. Definitions [4]
  • 48. Definitions [5]
  • 49. Definitions [6]
  • 50. Definitions [7]
  • 51. Definitions [8]
  • 52. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 53. About the authors
  • 54. Analysys Mason' s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 55. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 56. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: IoT connections by network type, worldwide, 2027
  • Figure 2: Total IoT connections by network type, 2015-2027
  • Figure 3: Existing, emerging and potential LPWA applications
  • Figure 4: 5G IoT connections by region, 2020-2027
  • Figure 5: Revenue by type and blended ARPC, worldwide, 2015-2027
  • Figure 6: Cellular value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
  • Figure 7: LPWA value chain revenue, worldwide, 2027
  • Figure 8: Cellular and LPWA connectivity revenue and ARPU, 2015-2027
  • Figure 9: Connections share by sector, worldwide, 2015-2027
  • Figure 10: Connectivity revenue share by sector, worldwide, 2015-2027
  • Figure 11: Total IoT connections and total value chain revenue by region, 2027
  • Figure 12: Share of IoT connections by network type, WE, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 13: Connections by sector, WE, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 14: 5G connections by sector, WE, 2020-2027
  • Figure 15: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, WE, 2015-2027
  • Figure 16: Connectivity revenue share by sector, WE, 2015-2027
  • Figure 17: Share of IoT connections by network type, CEE, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 18: Connections by sector, CEE, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 19: Share of IoT connections by sector, CEE, 2015-2027
  • Figure 20: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, CEE, 2015-2027
  • Figure 21: Connectivity revenue share by sector, CEE, 2015-2027
  • Figure 22: Share of IoT connections by network type, MENA, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 23: Connections by sector, MENA, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 24: Share of IoT connections by sector, MENA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 25: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, MENA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 26: Connectivity revenue share by sector, MENA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 27: Share of IoT connections by network type, SSA, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 28: Connections by sector, SSA, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 29: IoT connections by network type, South Africa, 2015-2027
  • Figure 30: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, SSA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 31: Split of IoT revenue between South Africa and the rest of SSA, 2027
  • Figure 32: Share of IoT connections by network type, EMAP (excluding China), 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 33: Connections by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 34: IoT connections by network type, Indonesia, 2015-2027
  • Figure 35: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, EMAP (excluding China), 2015-2027
  • Figure 36: Connectivity revenue share by sector, EMAP (excluding China), 2015-2027
  • Figure 37: Share of IoT connections by network type, China, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 38: Connections by sector, China, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 39: 5G connections by sector, China, 2020-2027
  • Figure 40: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, China, 2015-2027
  • Figure 41: Connectivity revenue share by sector, China, 2015-2027
  • Figure 42: Share of IoT connections by network type, DVAP, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 43: Connections by sector, DVAP, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 44: Share of IoT connections by sector, DVAP, 2015-2027
  • Figure 45: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, DVAP, 2015-2027
  • Figure 46: Connectivity revenue share by sector, DVAP, 2015-2027
  • Figure 47: Share of IoT connections by network type, NA, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 48: Connections by sector, NA, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 49: 5G connections by sector, USA, 2020-2027
  • Figure 50: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, NA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 51: Connectivity revenue share by sector, NA, 2015-2027
  • Figure 52: Share of IoT connections by network type, LATAM, 2018 and 2027
  • Figure 53: Connections by sector, LATAM, 2015 and 2027
  • Figure 54: IoT connections by sector, Brazil, 2015-2027
  • Figure 55: Connectivity revenue and ARPC by technology, LATAM, 2015-2027
  • Figure 56: Connectivity revenue share by sector, Brazil, 2015-2027
  • Figure 57: Previous IoT connections forecast versus new IoT connections forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
  • Figure 58: Previous total value chain revenue forecast versus new total value chain revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
  • Figure 59: Previous connectivity revenue forecast versus new connectivity revenue forecast, worldwide, 2015-2026
  • Figure 60: Network definitions
  • Figure 61: Other definitions
  • Figure 62a: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
  • Figure 62b: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
  • Figure 62c: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
  • Figure 62d: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
  • Figure 62e: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
  • Figure 62f: Definitions of IoT connectivity sectors and applications
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