"The subscriber conversion rate for premises passed worldwide by next-generation access will increase from 69% at the end of 2018 to 78% at the end of 2025."
Operators that are investing in next-generation access (NGA) networks need to understand what rate of take-up they can realistically expect to achieve. Not all investments will pay off, but Analysys Mason takes a generally positive view of robust growth in overall NGA conversion rates worldwide.
This report analyses and forecasts conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed) for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2018-2025.
Key metrics covered in this report
- Conversion rates (that is, premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
- Connection numbers
- Connection rate of premises passed
Split by architecture/technology:
- FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
- Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1
The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.
- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern Europe
- Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North Africa
- Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
- Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
- China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
- Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Table of Contents
- 7. Worldwide trends
- 8. The conversion rate for next-generation access technology will level off over the forecast period and will even decline slightly in North America
- 9. NGA operators can minimise the threat posed by substitution from mobile handset offers
- 10. There is, to date, limited evidence that fixed-wireless access is competing effectively with wireline NGA
- 11. Cable broadband continues to show robust performance despite increased FTTx competition
- 12. In Western Europe, new FTTP entrants have the potential to achieve strong conversion rates
- 13. Incumbents in Western Europe will be doing well if they achieve FTTx take-up rates of 50% by 2025
- 14. Total fixed broadband net additions in emerging markets may accelerate significantly after the introduction of NGA
- 15. Many new fibre entrants in emerging markets have, to date, found it challenging to generate significant take-up
- 16. Regional trends
- 17. Western Europe
- 18. NGA conversion rates in Western Europe will grow rapidly throughout the forecast period
- 19. Central and Eastern Europe
- 20. NGA take-up for individual operators in CEE has been diluted by the presence of multiple overlapping networks
- 21. Middle East and North Africa
- 22. FTTP take-up rates vary significantly across Gulf markets, which reflects the maturity of different deployments
- 23. Sub-Saharan Africa
- 24. FTTP conversion rates have generally been good for new-entrant operators in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 25. China
- 26. FTTP conversion rates in China continue to show strong growth, but this growth will necessarily slow over the forecast period
- 27. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
- 28. Overall growth in the number of NGA subscribers in EMAP is generally strong, but this does not necessarily translate into a positive business case for all operators.
- 29. Developed Asia-Pacific
- 30. Wireless substitution is placing some constraints on NGA subscriber conversion rates in DVAP
- 31. North America
- 32. 5G fixed-wireless deployments will be responsible for declines in the number of subscribers of cable broadband and incumbent FTTx technologies in North America
- 33. Latin America
- 34. Evidence suggests there is no guarantee of success for fibre deployments in the LATAM region
- 35. Forecast methodology and assumptions
- 36. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 region
- 37. Definitions
- 38. About author and Analysys Mason
- 39. About the author
- 40. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
- 41. Research for Analysys Mason
- 42. Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2013-2025
- Figure 2: NGA conversion rates by region, 2013-2025
- Figure 3: Fixed broadband household penetration in Netherlands and Taiwan, 2Q 2012-2Q 2018
- Figure 4: New Zealand fixed broadband connections by technology, 2Q 2014-2Q 2018
- Figure 5: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, 2013-2025
- Figure 6: Western European non-incumbent FTTP conversion rates, 2016-2025
- Figure 7: Western European incumbent FTTx conversion rates, 2016-2025
- Figure 8: Indonesia fixed broadband subscribers by technology and fixed broadband net additions, 2008-2017
- Figure 9: Non-incumbent FTTP take up rates by selected emerging market, 2015-2025
- Figure 10: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Western Europe, 2016-2025
- Figure 11: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2016-2025
- Figure 12: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
- Figure 13: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
- Figure 14: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
- Figure 15: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
- Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
- Figure 17: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
- Figure 18: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2016-2025
- Figure 19: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2016-2025
- Figure 20: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
- Figure 21: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
- Figure 22: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
- Figure 23: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
- Figure 24: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2016-2025
- Figure 25: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2016-2025
- Figure 26: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2016-2025
- Figure 27: Active Connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2016-2025
- Figure 28: Countries covered in this report, by region