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西欧における有料TV・OTTビデオ市場:2018年〜2023年の動向と予測

Pay TV and OTT Video in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 750025
出版日 ページ情報 英文 22 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧における有料TV・OTTビデオ市場:2018年〜2023年の動向と予測 Pay TV and OTT Video in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2018年11月21日 ページ情報: 英文 22 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、西欧における有料TV・OTTビデオ市場について調査分析し、地域別、国別の予測のほか、市場動向や促進要因など、体系的な情報を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域の動向

  • 地理的範囲:IPTVは今のところ、フランス、ポルトガル、スペイン、スイスで優勢なアクセス技術
  • 有料TVプロバイダーによるOTTサービスは、「従来型」企業による小売の総売上高を、2018年の326億ユーロから2023年の361億ユーロまで成長させる
  • SVoDサービスの小売収益は2018年〜2023年の間に約2倍になり、リニアサービスの提供による収益は支出の18%〜29%まで拡大する
  • 従来型の有料TVの接続数は安定した状態を保つが、加入成長率は従来型企業のOTTサービスの開始に牽引される
  • 引き続き、西欧のOTTビデオで最も人気のある小売モデルはSVoDだが、リニアサービスの利用が急増する

国別の動向

  • フランス:バンドリングが従来型アクセス技術の減少をもたらし、プロバイダーはOTT配信で二次加入を求める
  • フランス:NetflixとAmazonがSVoDの成長を牽引するが、将来の収益成長はリニアチャネル加入が後押し
  • ドイツ:契約の柔軟性が、TVやビデオサービスの消費者の欲求を引き上げる重要な要因に
  • ドイツ:OTTサービスは、価格面から、国際的SVoDプロバイダーが優勢
  • イタリア:オペレーターOTTが、有料TV配信の大部分を占める
  • イタリア:リニアOTTサービスへのオペレーターの関与が、イタリアの広範なOTT市場の将来を支配する
  • スペイン:コンテンツのIP配信は、その他の西欧諸国より強い
  • スペイン:Netflixが、地方のOTT競合で優勢
  • 英国:Skyのアクションが市場で優勢、Sky・BTから従来型STBへのOTT統合が市場を将来的に複雑に
  • 英国:SVoDが引き続きほとんどのOTTビデオ収益を生むが、リニアOTTサービスが急成長し、2022年までに10億ユーロを超える

予測手法と前提条件

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

目次

"We forecast that operators and traditional pay-TV providers will gain users and retail revenue as a result of OTT, with retail revenue increasing from EUR32.6 billion to EUR36.1 billion between 2018 and 2023."

This forecast unites our traditional and OTT video forecasts for Western Europe into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation. Full-price pay-TV services are being launched over unmanaged IP (for example, OTT), and from a consumer point of view, these services are the same, or better, than the services that they received over traditional accesses such as cable and satellite.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT video service - linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
  • forecasts for 16 individual countries and Western Europe as a whole.

Geographical coverage and key metrics

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • pay-TV households and connections
  • OTT video users
  • retail revenue (spend)
  • ASPU

Pay TV is split by the following access technologies:

  • cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
  • IPTV
  • pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
  • satellite (DTH)
  • operator OTT
  • third-party (non-operator) OTT

OTT video is split as follows:

  • linear - channels (paid-for and free)
  • linear - events
  • TVoD - (rental and ownership)
  • SVoD (paid-for and free)
  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. The future of Western European pay TV is OTT video
  • 9. Traditional pay-TV spend will peak in 2019, but operators and pay-TV providers will gain EUR4.3 billion in incremental revenue from their own OTT services by 2023
  • 10. The extent to which operators and pay-TV providers embrace OTT delivery will significantly influence future retail revenue growth in each coutry in Western Europe
  • 11. Regional trends
  • 12. Geographical coverage: IPTV is now the dominant access technology in France, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland
  • 13. OTT services delivered by pay-TV providers will grow the total retail revenue captured by 'traditional' players from EUR32.6 billion in 2018 to EUR36.1 billion in 2023
  • 14. Retail revenue for SVoD services will almost double between 2018 and 2023, but revenue from the delivery of linear services will grow from 18% to 29% of spend
  • 15. Traditional pay-TV connections will remain stable, but subscription growth will be driven by traditional players' own OTT service launches
  • 16. SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Euriiope, but linear service use wil grow more rapidly
  • 17. country-level trends
  • 18. France: bundling will stem the decline of traditional access technologies while providers use OTT delivery to pursue secondary subscriptions
  • 19. France: Netflix and Amazon drove SVoD growth over 2017 and 2018, but future revenue growth will be driven by linear channel subscriptions
  • 20. Germany: contract flexibility appears to have been the linchpin to unlocking greater consumer appetite for TV and video servies
  • 21. Germany: OTT services will continue to be dominated by international SVoD providers primarily because of pricing
  • 22. Italy: operator OTT wil account for the majority of pay-TV delivery by 2023
  • 23. Italy: operator involvement in linear OTT services will dominate the future of the wider OTT market in Italy
  • 24. Spain: IP deliver of content is stronger here than in the rest of Western Europe
  • 25. Spain: Netflix dominates local OTT competition
  • 26. UK: Sky's actions dominate the market; OTT integration into traditional STBs from Sky and BT will add future complexity to the market
  • 27. UK: SVoD will continue to generate most OTT video revenue, but linear OTT services will grow at a more-rapid rate, exceeding EUR1 billion by 2022
  • 28. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 29. Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
  • 30. How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
  • 31. Further definitins
  • 32. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 33. About the authors
  • 34. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 35. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 36. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 3: Contribution of traditional payTV and OTT video to total change in retail revenue in Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, Western Europe, 2023
  • Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 8: OTT video retail; revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018-2023
  • Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, France, 2015-2023
  • Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, France, 2015-2023
  • Figure 15: Number of users by service type, France, 2015-2023
  • Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Germany, 2015-2023
  • Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Germany, 2015-2023
  • Figure 18: Number of users by service type, Germany, 2015-2023
  • Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Italy, 2015-2023
  • Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Italy, 2015-2023
  • Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Italy, 2015-2023
  • Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Spain, 2015-2023
  • Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Spain, 2015-2023
  • Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Spain, 2015-2023
  • Figure 25: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, UK, 2015-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, UK, 2015-2023
  • Figure 27: Number of users by service type, UK, 2015-2023
  • Figure 28: Scope of our spend forecasts
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