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西欧の通信市場:2017年第3四半期データに基づいた動向・予測 (2017-2022年)

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 Data

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 620032
出版日 ページ情報 英文 44 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧の通信市場:2017年第3四半期データに基づいた動向・予測 (2017-2022年) Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 Data
出版日: 2018年03月27日 ページ情報: 英文 44 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、西欧の主要16ヶ国を対象に、360以上のモバイル・固定KPIに関する5ヵ年予測を提供しており、モバイル・固定サービスの各タイプおよび主要諸国の動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略の概要と各国ごとのトピック、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの提言などをまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域予測・各国比較

  • 市場背景
  • 主なM&A、市場参入
  • 主な促進因子
  • 市場概要
  • モバイル
  • 固定
  • ビジネスサービス
  • IoT
  • 有料TV、ほか

各国予測

  • フランス:全体的なサービス収益は、モバイル端末サービスからの小売り収益が成長に戻るにつれて、僅かに回復する見込み
  • ドイツ:モバイルデータ導入およびNGA固定ブロードバンド割増料金に促進され、収益成長は緩やかに
  • イタリア:2017年の僅かな収益成長は、大局的な下降傾向において例外的
  • スペイン:コンバージドバンドルの普及に促進され、収益成長は2019年まで持続する予測
  • 英国:サービス強化の機会が徐々に減少するため、小売り収益成長は2019年から下降し始める見込み、ほか

調査手法

著者・ANALYSYS MASONについて

目次

"Investment in network infrastructure is the key to sustaining revenue in Western Europe."

Premium pricing from next-generation access (NGA) broadband will be the main revenue growth driver, as the commoditisation of mobile services progresses from voice and messaging to handset data. Fixed markets will perform better than mobile markets in most countries, but the line between the two is becoming increasingly blurred.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe (WE), as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Revenue trends in Western Europe are improving in many countries, but growth will be limited
  • 10.Retail revenue growth across Western Europe will be flat; no country will have a retail revenue CAGR above or below ±2%
  • 11.Geographical coverage: the Nordic countries have the highest take-up of high-speed fixed and mobile services
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Market context: economic recovery is underway in Western Europe, but will depend on the outcome of Brexit
  • 16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17.Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market
  • 18.Market overview: overall revenue will remain stable, with fixed broadband acting as the main source of growth
  • 19.Mobile: cellular data traffic growth will remain strong, but ARPU will continue to decline
  • 20.Mobile: penetration in most markets will stabilise at approximately 120-130%
  • 21.Mobile: ARPU correlates with wealth, and it is noticeably higher outside the European Union
  • 22.Mobile: the growth in usage will be driven by technological upgrades and tariffing, but competition will limit operators' ability to monetise it
  • 23.Fixed: the increased uptake of NGA will drive strong growth in fixed Internet traffic
  • 24.Fixed: the penetration of fixed broadband will approach saturation in many countries over the next 5 years
  • 25.Fixed: broadband ASPU will remain buoyant in most countries, as infrastructure upgrades lead to higher speeds and higher prices
  • 26.Fixed: unlike in the mobile market there is still scope for growth in the take-up of fixed broadband in Western Europe
  • 27.Business services: traditional telecoms providers will struggle to capture the growth in business service revenue
  • 28.IoT: the IoT sector is an important area of growth in Western Europe, as operators seek alternative revenue streams
  • 29.Pay TV: Western European traditional pay-TV revenue will contract after 2021, but growth will still be strong for OTT video services
  • 30.Individual country forecasts
  • 31.France: total service revenue will recover slightly as retail revenue from mobile handset services returns to growth
  • 32.France: technological upgrades will drive increased usage and help to stabilise the revenue per user
  • 33.France: 2020 will see the launch of 5G mobile services and the full availability of superfast broadband services
  • 34.France: we have slightly increased our revenue forecast since the previous edition
  • 35.Germany: revenue growth will be slow, led by mobile data adoption and NGA fixed broadband pricing premiums
  • 36.Germany: network upgrades will continue, but DSL will remain dominant in the fixed broadband market
  • 37.Germany: there is significant scope for growth in mobile usage and higher-speed broadband, but this will not increase revenue
  • 38.Germany: our revenue forecast has been decreased somewhat, but we still predict growth throughout the forecast period
  • 39.Italy: the slight revenue growth in 2017 is an anomaly in a broader downward trend
  • 40.Italy: strong growth in fixed broadband revenue will be outstripped by the decline in voice revenue
  • 41.Italy: the Italian mobile market is braced for disruption with the imminent launch of Iliad
  • 42.Italy: 2017 was stronger than we anticipated, but the launch of Iliad will put pressure on revenue from 2018 onwards
  • 43.Spain: retail revenue growth is expected to continue until 2019 driven by converged bundle take-up
  • 44.Spain: fixed broadband ASPU will be sustained by the transition from DSL to FTTP/B
  • 45.Spain: content bundling is a key facet of competition in Spain's converged market
  • 46.Spain: our total revenue forecast for Spain has been decreased slightly in light of the latest historical data
  • 47.UK: retail revenue growth will start to decline from 2019 as opportunities for service enrichment dwindle
  • 48.UK: DSL will remain dominant in the broadband market
  • 49.UK: investment in FTTP/B is on the horizon, despite the uncertainties caused by Brexit
  • 50.UK: there is very little change in our overall revenue forecast for the UK
  • 51.Methodology
  • 52.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 53.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 54.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 55.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 56.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 57.About the authors [1]
  • 58.Abouttheauthors[2]
  • 59.About Analysys Mason
  • 60.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2016--2022
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of the key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2016
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017--2022), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Western Europe, 2012--2022
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2013--2022
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Western Europe, 2013--2022
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2012--2022
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2012--2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, France, 2012--2022
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2012--2022
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2012--2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2012--2022
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2012--2022
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2012--2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2012--2022
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2012--2022
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2012--2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2012--2022
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 2012--2022
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2012--2022
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2012--2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (MB per month), 2012--2022
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2012--2022
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UK, 2012--2022
  • Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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