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市場調査レポート

中欧・東欧 (CEE) における通信市場:2017年〜2022年の動向と予測

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 Data

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 618892
出版日 ページ情報 英文 36 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中欧・東欧 (CEE) における通信市場:2017年〜2022年の動向と予測 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 Data
出版日: 2018年03月26日 ページ情報: 英文 36 Slides

当商品の販売は、2019年03月22日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

当レポートでは、中欧・東欧 (CEE) における通信市場について調査分析し、5ヶ年予測のほか、動向、促進要因、予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、国別のトピックなど、体系的な情報を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域の予測と国全体の比較

  • 市場の背景:CEEの経済回復で、通信サービスへの世帯支出が増加
  • 主なM&A、市場参入
  • CEEの各市場の主要促進要因
  • 市場概要:CEEの価格競争は減少、通信サービス収益が増加
  • モバイル:4G接続が3G/2Gに取って代わるようになるが、2022年までは完全移行せず
  • モバイル:すべてのCEE諸国で (トルコを除く) モバイルSIMの普及率が比較的安定
  • モバイル:CEEのARPUは安定、価格圧力の低下と高価なデータプランの取り込み増により
  • モバイル:LTEインフラの広範な展開が、CEEにおけるモバイル収益成長を支える
  • 固定:NGAネットワークのロールアウトとブロードバンド世帯の増加により、固定通信は収益成長
  • 固定:普及率は増加するが、進捗ペースは経済や地域の多様性により異なる
  • 固定:CEEの固定ブロードバンドのASPUは安定
  • 固定:固定通信オペレーターは、NGAネットワーク展開への投資を拡大、コンテンツ提供に重点を置く
  • ビジネスサービス:通信オペレーターのその他のビジネスサービスは、コロケーション・ホスティング、プライベートクラウド、セキュリティ、SaaS、IaaSなど
  • IoT:通信オペレーターは、IoT部門からの収益源の増加の機会を探す
  • 有料TV:従来の有料TVの収益は、CEEのほとんどの市場でわずかに増加する

国別の予測

  • チェコ共和国:通信の総収益は回復、モバイル端末データ収益が牽引
  • チェコ共和国:モバイル接続数の4Gシェアは急増
  • チェコ共和国:広範な4Gサービスエリアが端末データ収益を後押し
  • チェコ共和国:予測の変更
  • ポーランド:通信サービスの収益は安定、FBBサービスの取り込みが増加
  • ポーランド:固定ブロードバンドのASPUとモバイルのARPUが安定
  • ポーランド:コンテンツサービスが、通信オペレーターによる固定・モバイル部門のネットワーク投資の収益化を助ける
  • ポーランド:予測の変更
  • ロシア:サービスの総収益は減少、固定・モバイル音声の利用が減少
  • ロシア:モバイル市場の競争が激化、端末のARPUが低下
  • ロシア:ファイバー回線数が増加し、ブロードバンドのASPUが拡大
  • ロシア:予測の変更
  • トルコ:4Gサービスの取り込みとモバイル端末データサービスへの根強い需要が、ARPUの増加を促進
  • トルコ:FBBの普及率が引き続き増加、NGAアクセスが世帯ブロードバンド接続数で優位に
  • トルコ:4Gサービスの取り込みとNGAネットワークのロールアウトが、固定・モバイル部門の収益成長を促進
  • トルコ:予測の変更

予測手法

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

目次

"Telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will increase during the forecast period, underpinned by a positive economic outlook and driven by mobile data revenue growth and fixed broadband deployments."

The economy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) grew strongly in 2017 and we expect that the region's growing GDP will boost household consumption during the next few years. The growth of service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile data. We expect data revenue to continue to grow as the take-up of data is still relatively low (compared with Western Europe, for example). Fixed broadband (FBB) services will contribute to an increase in overall telecoms revenue due to the steady growth of next-generation access (NGA) investments, increasing household penetration and rising FBB ASPU.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the 16 countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators in the region.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth and fixed network investments
  • 10.Retail revenue growth in CEE will be driven by expanding 4G coverage and further NGA roll-outs
  • 11.Geographical coverage: the number of 4G connections will surge in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe during the forecast period
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Market context: CEE's improving economy will help to increase household spending on telecoms services
  • 16.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 17.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
  • 18.Market overview: price competition has declined in CEE and telecoms service revenue will increase during the forecast period
  • 19.Mobile: 4G connections will gradually displace 3G/2G, but we do not expect 3G/2G network decommissions before 2022
  • 20.Mobile: the level of mobile SIM penetration in all CEE countries (except Turkey) will remain relatively stable
  • 21.Mobile: ARPU in CEE will stabilise due to declining competitive pressure on prices and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
  • 22.Mobile: the widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure will support mobile revenue growth in CEE
  • 23.Fixed: NGA network roll-out and increasing broadband household penetration will drive fixed telecoms revenue growth
  • 24.Fixed: penetration rates will increase across the region, but the pace of progress will vary due to economic and geographic diversity
  • 25.Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will in CEE will stabilise in the forecast period due to high competition in fixed broadband segment
  • 26.Fixed: fixed telecoms operators will increase their investments in NGA network deployment and will focus on content offers
  • 27.Business services: key other business services for telecoms operators include co-location and hosting, private cloud, security, SaaS and IaaS
  • 28.IoT: telecoms operators will look for opportunities to their increase revenue streams from the IoT segment
  • 29.Pay-TV: traditional pay-TVrevenue will grow slightly in most markets in CEE, but OTT video to the TV will be the main driver of revenue growth
  • 30.Individual country forecasts
  • 31.Czech Republic: total telecoms revenue recovery will be driven by mobile handset data revenue
  • 32.Czech Republic: the 4G share of mobile connections will increase quickly due to high service coverage
  • 33.Czech Republic: widespread 4G coverage will drive handset data revenue
  • 34.Czech Republic: Forecast changes
  • 35.Poland: revenue for telecoms service will stabilise during the forecast period, driven by increasing FBB service take-up
  • 36.Poland: fixed broadband ASPU and mobile ARPU will stabilise as operators focus more on service competition
  • 37.Poland: content services will help telecoms operators to monetise network investments in both fixed and mobile segments
  • 38.Poland: Forecast changes
  • 39.Russia: total service revenue will decline, mainly driven by significant decrease in fixed and mobile voice usage
  • 40.Russia: competition in the country's mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
  • 41.Russia: growth in the number of fibre lines will increase broadband ASPU; increasing 4G coverage will improve handset data ARPU
  • 42.Russia: Forecast changes
  • 43.Turkey: 4G service take-up and a strong demand for mobile handset data services will drive an increase in ARPU
  • 44.Turkey: FBB penetration will continue to increase and NGA access will dominate in household broadband connections by 2022
  • 45.Turkey: revenue growth in the fixed and mobile segments will be driven by 4G service take-up and NGA network roll-outs
  • 46.Turkey: Forecast changes
  • 47.Methodology
  • 48.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 49.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 50.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 51.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 52.About the authors and AnalysysMason
  • 53.About the authors
  • 54.AnalysysMason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 55.Research from AnalysysMason
  • 56.Consulting from AnalysysMason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TVretail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 20221
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2016
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 63a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 63b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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