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FTTx変換の世界市場動向と予測:2017~2022年

FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 598079
出版日 ページ情報 英文 18 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=109.06円で換算しております。
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FTTx変換の世界市場動向と予測:2017~2022年 FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年12月14日 ページ情報: 英文 18 Slides
概要

固定線ブロードバンド市場におけるダイナミクスは、加入者の大奥がFTTxネットワークに移行していることから変化しています。

当レポートでは、FTTxへの移行の速度やこの移動がもたらす意味の検証などについて取り上げています。

世界的動向

  • 2022年の固定線ブロードバンド市場はNGAが占め、FTTPが引き続きネット接続のシェアを拡大する
  • 一部の新興市場における強制的な移行がFTTP導入率を高いレベルに引き上げる
  • 国によるブロードバンドネットワークの卸売に占められる市場ではFTTxの導入はスロースタート後ゆっくりと成長する
  • エネルギー会社は複雑なFTTP導入をおこなっている
  • ファイバー専門ISPは困難さを増す市場に直面し、市場シェアの拡大が難しくなる
  • FTTx加入者は非NGA固定線ブロードバンド加入者よりチャーン率が非常に低い
  • FTTP導入速度の遅い既存事業者は政治的・規制的リスクや、潜在的な卸売損失に直面する
  • FTTxのカバー範囲の劇的な拡大のケーブルブロードバンド接続動向への影響は限定的

西欧

  • FTTxへの移行は一部の西欧既存事業者にとって依然として課題

中東欧

  • 2022年までの間でのNGA導入率の成長は制限的

中東・北アフリカ

  • 2022年末までのNGA接続は全世帯の12%にとどまる

サハラ以南

  • 2022年末までにNGA導入率は、他の地域より少ない30%

中国および新興アジア太平洋圏

  • 中国:インフラの競争と居王政的な移行がFTTPの導入率を高める
  • その他の地域:加入者の接続率は一般的に良好ながら例外もある

先進アジア太平洋圏

  • 一部の発展市場で既存のファイバーインフラへの移行がゆっくりと進む

北米

  • NGAの競争がカナダと米国で激化する

南米

  • 2021年までケーブル事業者がNGA市場を独占する

付属資料

予測手法と前提条件

  • 地理的範囲
  • 定義

Analysys Masonについて

目次

"FTTx subscriber take-up is growing worldwide, but the rates vary according to country and region."

Dynamics in fixed broadband markets are changing as growing numbers of subscribers switch to FTTx networks. This report examines how quickly the migration to FTTx is occurring and what the wider implications of this transition are.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for subscriber connection numbers and connection rates for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS 3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of FTTx subscriber growth.

KEY METRICS:

  • Subscriber connection numbers
  • Subscriber connections per premises passed
  • Split by architecture/technology:
    • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/LAN
    • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
    • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
Emerging Asia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Developed Asia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) works on our Network Investment Strategies and Network Traffic research programmes. His research covers the implications for different stakeholders of new wireless and fixed technologies. He is based in Analysys Mason's Singapore office, from where he closely follows market developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Stephen has more than 8 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. NGA will dominate the fixed broadband market in 2022 and
  • FTTP will continue to increase its share of connection
  • 9. Forced migration has driven FTTP take-up rates to very high
  • levels in some emerging markets
  • 10. In markets dominated by wholesale national broadband
  • networks, FTTx take-up is growing steadily after a slow start
  • 11. Energy companies have seen very mixed take-up rates for their
  • FTTP deployments
  • 12. Fibre specialist ISPs are facing an increasingly difficult market,
  • which is making market share growth challenging
  • 13. FTTx subscribers have significantly lower churn than non-NGA
  • fixed broadband subscribers
  • 14. Incumbents that are slow to proceed with FTTP deployments
  • face political and regulatory risks and potential wholesale losses
  • 15. Dramatic increases in FTTx coverage have had a limited
  • impact on cable broadband connection trends
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: FTTx conversion remains challenging for
  • some Western European incumbents
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: NGA take-up rates will experience
  • only limited growth in the period to 2022
  • 20. Middle East and North Africa
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa: NGA connections will be used by
  • just 12% of households in MENA at the end of 2022
  • 22. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa: Take-up rates for NGA will reach 30% of
  • premises passed at the end of 2022, lower than other regions
  • 24. China and merging Asia-Pacific
  • 25. China: Infrastructure competition and forced migration have
  • driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels
  • 26. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Subscriber connection rates
  • have generally been good but there are exceptions
  • 27. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 28. Developed Asia-Pacific: The migration to incumbent fibre infrastructure continues to be slow in some advanced markets
  • 29. North America
  • 30. North America: NGA competition is likely to become more
  • intense in Canada and the USA
  • 31. Latin America
  • 32. Latin America: Cable operators will continue to dominate the
  • NGA market in the period to 2021
  • v33. Appendix
  • 34. The retail take-up on FTTP networks in which energy companies have been involved has been highest for LyseTele in Norway
  • 35. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 36. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 37. Definitions
  • 38. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 39. About the authors
  • 40. About Analysys Mason
  • 41. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 42. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: NGA conversion rates, by region, 2014-2022
  • Figure 4: ADSL connections as a proportion of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2012-2016
  • Figure 5: FTTx conversion rates for incumbent wholesale operators, by country, 4Q 2009-4Q 2017
  • Figure 6: Energy company involvement in retail FTTP networks
  • Figure 7: FTTP/B subscriber market share by lean ISP, end of 2016 and end of 2Q 2017
  • Figure 8: Monthly fixed broadband churn rate by selected operator, 2015-2Q 2017
  • Figure 9: Iceland fixed broadband market share, 2012-2016
  • Figure 10: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 12: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 13: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 14: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 17: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 18: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 21: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 22: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 25: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 26: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 29: Conversion rate of FTTP premises passed, selected energy company FTTP deployments
  • Figure 30: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 31: Definitions used in this report
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